Penn Primary Open Thread


Who's going to win? Who's going to lose? Does it matter at this point? Are we going into the convention without a nominee? Play nice.

From Nelson:

SUMMARY: the good old days of reliable "exit polls" are gone, so you can make what you want of preliminary word that Clinton is only beating Obama by 4 points in Pennsylvania.

So far the Philadelphia regional turnout is absolutely record-setting, and according to all the experts, this SHOULD favor Obama. But two major "unknowns" remain:

Who wins the estimated 300,000 newly registered Dems (lot's of young folks, which should heavily favor Obama); how to the "undecideds" break (past precedent says Hillary wins big with this category).

Obama's campaign early today sent out press guidance "suggesting" that if Clinton "only" wins by 10% or less, it should be seen as a big victory for Obama, considering that he once trailed by 29 points.

Well, losing is still losing. But the real "race" tonite is for delegates, and the experts have been firm on that one...to significantly change the psychology of the fight, Clinton has to beat Obama by more than 20 points.

No one expects that, and with the big Philly turnout, there are even some Obama folks allowing themselves to think "upset win tonite"?

Privately, more hard-nosed realists already argue "forget Pennsylvania, this will be settled May 6 in Indiana and North Carolina".

Lord save us...it ain't over even when it's over...


Sean Paul Kelley April 22, 2008 - 1:23pm
( categories: Analysis | USA: Campaign 2008 )

Anybody care to weigh in on why that's a good PR move? Shouldn't he stay in PA until the votes are cast?

Charles Harris April 22, 2008 - 2:03pm
Raja April 22, 2008 - 4:41pm

to see what returns they're posting----only talk so far (As expected).

General feel is that Clinton will win, but by 1-4%. We'll see.....

-5.75,-4.05
"We're all fucked. It helps to remember that." --George Carlin

justadood April 22, 2008 - 4:33pm

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