Are Employment Stats Real?


Think about this for a moment: our manufacturing is gutted, far too many people in America work as temps and ever more work as 'sef-employed' entrepreneurs, as people who have no benefits and no social security (and I am not talking about the government program).

How is it that we have such a low unemployment rate? I have asked this question before, going so far as to say that our unemployment rate, if we actually, you know, included all the people who were able and willing to work but were considered 'out of the labor market' we might very well have unemployment as high as that in Europe. That idea, or hunch, as it were, was roundly criticized at the time by a some readers. Fine. But I'm not the only one making that point any more.

If the government can screw Social Security recipients by creating 'hedonics' how easy would it be to undercount the real unemployed in America?


Sean Paul Kelley March 5, 2008 - 3:35pm
( categories: Analysis | Economics: USA | The Markets )

but it doesn't have any easy answer. This is a problem in all of the social sciences: We have concepts, but we disagree on how to measure them. This is why it is so important to report your measures so people know what "unemployment" means (which might or might not coincide with what they think it means). Many times the disagreements are fine in nature and don't produce dramatic empirical differences when contrasted with each other.

But many do. That's when the responsible data collector should report results using other reasonable measurements and note points of contrast. Unfortunately, I am increasingly under the impression that government statistics exist primarily to convince people that things are going great. Unemployment is a major issue, and relying on a single measure operationalized in a debatable manner is very risky.

Mr. Flibble March 5, 2008 - 4:25pm

"we might very well have unemployment as high as that in Europe"

3.8 here in Denmark
7.9 EU-25

I'd bet the US rate is closer to 10%. That would suggest some states are much higher than the median. Official US stats have always been notoriously skewed, but anything coming out of this administration should be held in utter contempt. Hell, the Decider says the economy is doing just fine.

7.9 % unemployment in Europe is probably pretty healthy overall considering the economy is relatively stable and the social safety net is pretty much in tact.

Things don't look so good back home

stuart noble March 5, 2008 - 5:21pm

Before the rules were that you checked the number employed vs the population. Until FDR that was all there was in any case. Under Reagan it was a measure of the people receiving unemployment benefits because in their Neocon reasoning if you quit getting them it was because you found another source of income.

Clinton did not change it as it would have caused a big artificial jump in unemployment that he would be hammered by. Another factor is that a person who was making $50k a year and is now working three jobs at $10k each is not unemployed and no longer (as they were) eligible for unemployment even if they lose one or two of those jobs.

Thirdly the Bush privatization of the unemployment service makes it profitable to game people off the system and help them less. Florida is a most awful example of this.

So the real unemployment and extreme underemployment are both numbers the Gang Of Pirates really do not care about, and like Iraqi deaths would rather make it difficult to count rather than provide any help at all.

Of course the people living on the street (almost none before Reagan) go uncounted in any case, and the long term unemployed (and many employed) will be found there. I only hope the next Administration will measure the actual reality.

FreeDem March 5, 2008 - 6:31pm

They should be counting people in prison, 1% of the US population, as unemployed and those people should count in any statistic concerning productivity. We need to know the true cost to society resulting from the way we handle punishment vs rehab.

Joaquin March 5, 2008 - 6:46pm

Counting them would add 6% to Black unemployment all by itself, but as they are not collecting unemployment (even if gainfully employed before prison) they are among the many uncounted, as is anyone else, including those who have run it out or lost it due to bureaucratic rules.

For myself when I was last eligible, they kept making "Mistakes" and "losing" my paperwork. When I finally was not able to fix it in time I had "Voluntarily" abandoned my claim, letting them steal about $2,000.

FreeDem March 5, 2008 - 9:38pm

People can argue about and change the rules as time goes on. But, what is really bad is when they compare the stats old and new as if they have been measure the same:

"Oh, unemployment is up but not nearly as bad as the 70's". But if you measured it by the 70's method it might be worse looking. That is something that needs to be pointed out consistently when people make historical comparisons.

Zman1527 March 5, 2008 - 7:47pm

...which are done much more like the old stats were. And the comparison is made every day.

Gordon March 5, 2008 - 8:43pm

That's something I didn't know. Very interesting...

Bolo March 5, 2008 - 9:39pm

Germany even counts the "underemployed" as unemployed (eg, only working parttime, or a PhD bartending while hoping for a real job).

Gordon March 5, 2008 - 10:07pm

First, they are not counting all the illegal aliens who lost jobs in the residential construction collapse - many of which are skilled laborers. More will be uncounted as the commercial construction and real estate shoe drops. More yet will be uncounted as the consumer retrenches and retail outlets layoff. My theory is the government is doing all it can to prop-up the economy for the next ten months to pad what's left of Bush's legacy, as it were.

FreeDem: note economist John Williams' Shadow Stats: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data
Look at the 3d chart from the top - inflation as measured using the "new" verses the old (sensible) rules. (Is there anyone who does not have to cope with inflated food and energy costs?) Sean-Paul, what on earth made you think you were entitled to truth from your government? Certainly you weren't out looking for evidence of weapons for hostages deals, or lies about illicit sex, or weapons of mass destruction . . .

jake2 March 5, 2008 - 8:00pm

As noted in the BLS FAQ:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.faq.htm

there are various measures of unemployment. The official unemployment rate is U-3 in

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

this table. The Canadian official measure is closer to what the BLS denotes as U-5, IIRC, which is at 6% in the U.S. The U-6 measure includes people who are part-time but who would move to full time if they had a chance, and that's at 9%.

It's one of those things where the change tends to be more interesting than the actual level.

ssclift March 5, 2008 - 10:49pm

GordonMcMillan,

It's still as you recall, and not just in Germany. I think that's how all the E-15 countries do it, not sure about the new members though.

stuart noble March 6, 2008 - 6:40am

Would it not be politically expedient (and morally right) for the next administration (assuming it's Democratic) to come out early with some push back numbers to paint a clearer picture for the American people to demonstrate the true nature of the Bush economy. Not only could this provide political capital for pushing more aggressive federal social and employment benefits but could also serve to further discredit and isolate Republicans well into the future.

Then again, neither of the two Dems seem particularly concerned about effecting any lasting meaningful change for us commoners.

stuart noble March 6, 2008 - 6:52am

One of the first things FDR did was to hire many unemployed photographers to go around the country and document the Depression, this archive was made freely available and galvanized the country for many of the reforms that were made. That archive is still haunting and those photographers became some of the most famous of their generation going on to very lucrative careers.

A large program to reconstruct what facts the Gang Of Pirates have hidden, photographically, scientifically, movies, and just plain forensic digging for missing records and such research when published on a now made free web would again provide the base for the necessary clean up programs that will be fought heavily by the GOP.

I proposed this as an example of a program that could create good laws etc.

FreeDem March 6, 2008 - 6:03pm

Is a poll asking people what they think the unemployment rate is. I can't imagine 10 or, max, 20% of people know the official rate

bselig March 6, 2008 - 8:20am

Unfortunately that sense would be way under sensed. Those with jobs would see a small number and relax. Those without jobs would see it and assume that it was just them. They might not be able to quote a number but the rough range will stick.

If the MSM routinely reported the jobless rate at 20% (easy by German counting methods above)both groups would be "hair on fire" upset, some perhaps appropriately, but many unfortunately will be thinking of those unfortunates as "freeloaders" as they have had drummed into them for many years.

FreeDem March 6, 2008 - 5:48pm

I think the local numbers would come across fairly intuitively, but the national numbers would be alien to those living in very high or low unemployment areas.
By the way, the labor participation rate in the latest survey dropped to its lowest Q4 percentage since 1987, the peak during the 20-year period was in 1998. Labor participation dropped most dramatically among women over 55 years of age (but barely flinched among men of the same age).

johnnyel March 7, 2008 - 6:33am

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