International Market Shakeout Continues


The markets in the US are closed today for the MLK holiday. But that hasn't stopped the international markets from selling off. As of this moment indexes across the globe are moving down, some of them in a less than orderly fashion. From the Times:

The selling began in Sydney, with Australian stocks falling nearly 3 percent for an 11th consecutive decline. Major markets in Asia followed suit, with the benchmark Nikkei 225-stock average in Tokyo falling 3.9 percent, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong falling 5.5 percent and the benchmark mainland Chinese index falling more than 5 percent.

European shares were on track for their biggest decline in more than four and a half years as United States recession fears rattled investors. In afternoon trading, the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 was down 5.7 percent. The CAC 40 index in Paris was down 5 percent, having fallen more than 7 percent at one point. The Dax 30 in Frankfurt was down 6.25 percent, and the FTSE 100 in London was down 3.7 percent.

A UK real estate fund is also causing panic in London today, as Mish reports:

the fund, invested in London office blocks and shopping centres across Britain, no longer had sufficient cash reserves to meet demands from investors wanting to withdraw their money. Its "buffer fund" was down to 1% of its total assets, instead of the usual 10-15%.

Commercial property values, especially in the City of London office market, have dived amid fears of a recession brought on by the global credit crunch.

Wonder what tomorrow will bring?


Sean Paul Kelley January 21, 2008 - 1:10pm

Sounds like money's getting scarce relative to demand, what with banks not having sufficient cash reserves for investors wanting to get out...

As we enter into panic, people will start unloading assets at increasing losses and cash will be king! Remember those pictures of post-revolution Russia, where former nobles were selling art and diamonds for bread and firewood?

[Edited later]--Christ, the panic is definitely here. International markets are dumping everything, including oil and other commodities in expectation that the US recession is going to kill demand for them. Just wait until Wall Street opens tomorrow. There is going to be a massacre that we won't forget anytime soon.

Good news: we may finally get cheap gas again. Bad news: you may not have a car.

Mr. Flibble January 21, 2008 - 1:23pm

Gold, oil: down
Dollar: sharply up
The Theme: Asset Class Deflation vs. Dollar Devaluation

LJ January 21, 2008 - 1:59pm

DOW down 500 points! Any bets?...

creativelcro January 21, 2008 - 3:33pm

wagering in USD or Euros?


"I beseech you in the bowels of christ think it possible you may be mistaken."

Scott M January 21, 2008 - 4:03pm

Lets do something of real value like food or gas for the car.
jo6pac
The race to the bottom continues.

jo6pac January 21, 2008 - 5:17pm

not be surprised to see them close the markets early if it gets that bad.


"I beseech you in the bowels of christ think it possible you may be mistaken."

Scott M January 21, 2008 - 4:05pm

Based on the fact that the Canadian market is down 600 points today.

jtruett January 21, 2008 - 5:58pm

it will be called The Adventures of Captain Carnage

Stirling Newberry January 21, 2008 - 5:09pm

The Adventures of Captain Carnage....
Former Helicopter Pilot

Numerian January 21, 2008 - 6:15pm

NYT Magazine, By Roger Lowenstein, January 20

Ben Bernanke’s first exposure to monetary policy was reading the works of Milton Friedman, the Nobel laureate. That was 30 years ago, when Bernanke was a graduate student at M.I.T., and he has been studying central banking ever since. By the time President Bush nominated him to run the Federal Reserve, at the end of 2005, Bernanke knew more about central banking than any economist alive. On virtually every topic of significance — how to prevent deflationary panics, for instance, or to gauge the effect of Fed moves on stock-market prices — Bernanke wrote one of the seminal papers. He championed ideas for improving communications between the Fed — whose previous chairman, Alan Greenspan, spoke in riddles — and the public, believing that clearer guidance about the Fed’s aims would help the economy run more smoothly. And having devoted much of his career to studying the causes of the Great Depression, Bernanke was the academic expert on how to prevent financial crises from spinning out of control and threatening the general economy. One line from his “Essays on the Great Depression” sounds especially prescient today: “To the extent that bank panics interfere with normal flows of credit, they may affect the performance of the real economy.”

Bernanke, who came to the job with a refreshing humility — a desire to be less an oracle like Greenspan than a plain-speaking technocrat —faces exactly this sort of crisis now. Ever since last summer, a meltdown in financial markets has led to daunting losses in the banking industry and throughout Wall Street. Despite having written extensively on how to deal with such episodes, Bernanke has thus far been unable to reinstill a sense of confidence. His faith in modern forecasting models notwithstanding, he failed to foresee that the sudden rise in homeowner defaults, which triggered the crisis, would have such far-reaching effects. And the monetary medicine that he has prescribed, including some of the very tools that he lovingly detailed in his research, have yet to produce a turnaround.

At the same time, Bernanke’s attempt to improve the way the Fed communicates has misfired and often left investors confused, partly because he has repeatedly shifted course over the future direction of interest rates. His hero, Milton Friedman, is said to have warned against an indecisive Fed acting like a “fool in the shower” fumbling with first the hot water and then the cold. Bernanke has gotten close. Perhaps worst of all, he has failed to persuade investors that the Federal Reserve, which was formed in 1913 for the very purpose of halting market panics, is up to the job. “Bernanke is seriously behind the curve,” says David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch, one of many critics who maintain that the Fed has not responded to the crisis with sufficient vigor.

For Bernanke, who is now 54, it has been an education unlike any at M.I.T. And yet there is a case to be made that he has made many more right moves than wrong ones. The current crisis is a hangover from a half-decade of heady speculation in both housing and home mortgages and does not necessarily admit to a speedy fix. Moreover, it has fallen into Bernanke’s lap just as oil prices have spiked to a record $100 a barrel, the dollar has hit an all-time low against the euro and unemployment has ticked upward. None other than Alan Greenspan has said that constellation of problems facing Bernanke is tougher than anything he experienced in the 18 years that he held the job.


"Vanity, Vanity, all is Vanity."

Raja January 22, 2008 - 10:37am

But he does take a nice portrait.


"Vanity, Vanity, all is Vanity."

Raja January 22, 2008 - 10:38am

billions in write-downs, believe me there is no "cui-bono" involved.

“Is not our first thought to go on the road? The road is our source, our vault of treasures, our wealth. Only on the road does the ‘traveller’ feel like himself, at home.”
Ryszard Kapuscinski

Sean Paul Kelley January 21, 2008 - 11:05pm

on whether the DOW loses 1000 pts tomorrow? Things are looking increasingly Black Tuesdayish overseas. At this rate it should be less than a week before people start jumping out of office building windows.


"I beseech you in the bowels of christ think it possible you may be mistaken."

Scott M January 21, 2008 - 11:02pm

kick in first, shutting down trading for two hours. Then if it falls again the market will close before it gets that bad.

However, over a multi-day period it very well may happen.

“Is not our first thought to go on the road? The road is our source, our vault of treasures, our wealth. Only on the road does the ‘traveller’ feel like himself, at home.”
Ryszard Kapuscinski

Sean Paul Kelley January 21, 2008 - 11:06pm

loss cut-off point?


"I beseech you in the bowels of christ think it possible you may be mistaken."

Scott M January 21, 2008 - 11:07pm

for you: http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader/help/circuitbreaker.stm

They are percentages, not numbers. I was mistaken because the last time this happened the numbers were less, in 1998. Then the Dow was less than 10,000. So, the numbers have changed, but the percentages are pretty much the same:

1,350-point Decline in the Dow 1 Hour Halt 1 Hour Halt ½ Hour Halt No Effect
2,700-point Decline in the Dow 2 Hour Halt 1 Hour Halt Close For Day Close For Day
4,000-point Decline in the Dow Close For Day Close For Day Close For Day Close For Day

“Is not our first thought to go on the road? The road is our source, our vault of treasures, our wealth. Only on the road does the ‘traveller’ feel like himself, at home.”
Ryszard Kapuscinski

Sean Paul Kelley January 21, 2008 - 11:28pm

now I know when to keep extra underwear close at hand...:-)


"I beseech you in the bowels of christ think it possible you may be mistaken."

Scott M January 22, 2008 - 12:26am

Reuters - A Canadian man survived 96 hours pinned under his all-terrain vehicle in the Rocky Mountains by eating rotting animal carcasses, drinking melted snow and thinking of his grandchildren, he said on Monday.

Ken Hildebrand was trapped face down for four days and three nights in the Crowsnest Pass area of southwestern Alberta, where he tried numerous ways to free himself in below-freezing temperatures.

Throughout the ordeal, he kept wolves and coyotes away by blowing on an emergency whistle.


1."George Washington did not cross the Delaware for Capitalism," -Shmuley Boteach.
2.The Dems haven't punished the GOP enough, so you're going to reward the Republicans?

nymole January 22, 2008 - 12:14am

an emergency whistle on my key chain. Too bad I cant' use it to blow the financial meltdown away.

adrena January 22, 2008 - 10:42am

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