All Iowa, All The Time

Big nite starts in just a few hours. I'll be on the Chris Duel Show from 6:00-7:00 Central Time (Livestream here) and then on Air America from 7:30-TBA. Meanwhile, here are two sites that will have Caucus returns posted realtime: Iowa Democratic Party and the Iowa Republican Party. More as it happens . . .

7:12 Update: Iowa with just a trickle of precincts reporting has Edwards up 49%.

Nothing on the Republican side.

7:22 Update: Edwards with 38% with 33 of 1781 precincts reporting. That's about 2% reporting.

7:39 Update: With a little over 10% of precincts reporting Edwards is ahead with 34% of the vote. Word is that turnout is huge tonight, up 25% in many places, rumors of 50% in others.

8:18 Update: With 1108 of 1781 precincts reporting Obama is ahead with 34% and Edards and Clinton are tied with 31% each.

8:18 Update: Huckabee has won and Romney has conceded. Ron Paul is at 10%, interesting no?

8:29 Update: NBC is calling it for Obama with 35% and Edwards and Hillary at 30%.

Sean Paul Kelley January 3, 2008 - 8:03pm

Sean Paul Kelley's diary | printer friendly version |

( categories: USA: Campaign 2008 )

I'll be watching

Make sure you record at least 10 extra votes from me for Edwards ;-)

Kevin Hayden January 3, 2008 - 8:17pm

Still basically a dead heat

Still basically a dead heat -- looks like 31/32/34% right now, with 256 reporting the confidence interval is around 6% - not accounting for selection issues.

NateTG January 3, 2008 - 9:47pm

1030 Reporting 34.5

1030 Reporting 34.5 Obama/31.5 Edwards/31 Clinton --
It's starting to look very much like Obama is going to carry this by half a length. Clinton and Edwards are neck a neck for second.

NateTG January 3, 2008 - 10:22pm

And NPR

reports a big turnout by evangelicals for the Huckster.

_{"I beseech you in the bowels of christ think it possible you may be mistaken."}

Scott M January 3, 2008 - 9:55pm

NPR

And they're calling it for the Huckster.

Also calling 2nd Place for Mitt.

_{"Vanity, Vanity, all is Vanity."}

Raja January 3, 2008 - 10:05pm

entering the home stretch

and Obama assumes the lead, Edwards and Clinton battle for second...

I did inhale.

Don January 3, 2008 - 10:22pm

Nearing the wire

and Obama draws clear by six. Edwards has a nose in front of Hillary...

I did inhale.

Don January 3, 2008 - 10:42pm

Looks like Obama by 7 at the wire

...a devastating win.

Now if he can convince Gore to run as VP...

You'll have your next president.

I did inhale.

Don January 3, 2008 - 10:56pm

Not enough

to kick Hilary out. Not even enough, imo, to mean she isn't still the favourite. Might be enough to kick Edwards out.

If I were Hilary I'd be in talks with Edwards ASAP.

Ian Welsh January 3, 2008 - 11:10pm

Most people are like herd animals

They want to vote for the winner. My guess is that you'll see a shift toward Obama. If he takes New Hampshire and then South Carolina it's over.

Hillary is floundering; there's blood in the water. Watch em run from her as fast as they can.

On the other side, I don't know how Huckabee plays in a less conservative state. I wouldn't be surprised to see John McCain make a move in New Hampshire.

Giuliani also is swimming in a pool of blood. 4%. I'd call that a devastating loss.

Ron Paul was dead before the first shot was fired. Got exactly the number I expected: 10%. His following is loyal however and will stick with him even after they know he'll lose.

I did inhale.

Don January 3, 2008 - 11:35pm

You may

be right. It certainly happened in 04. We'll see.

I'm not too pleased by this. Honestly I think I might even prefer Clinton over Obama, not that it's much of a choice.

Blech.

Oh well.

From my point of view Americans inevitably choose the last person I'd choose. Kerry was my last choice of the top 4 in 04, for example. I would have prefered Bradley to Gore; and McCain to Bush in 00.

But then I'm not American.

If only Americans' choices had worked out better over the last few years I'd be more sanguine.

But I guess people get the politicians they deserve.

Ian Welsh January 4, 2008 - 12:08am

Ouch

Truth hurts.

ww January 4, 2008 - 12:18am

ABC

declares Obama the winner.

I did inhale.

Don January 3, 2008 - 10:32pm

so, with 80% reporting

It looks like Obama.

Is there enough difference or surprise to give him any real advantage going into NH? Doesn't appear so. Bragging rights, which is something I guess.

"[T]he liberty of a democracy is not safe if the people tolerate the growth of private power to a point where it becomes stronger than their democratic state itself. That, in its essence, is fascism. -FDR

ww January 3, 2008 - 10:42pm

Obama wins

no big deal for Hilary, since she didn't get blown out.

Painful for Edwards. Very painful.

Ian Welsh January 3, 2008 - 11:09pm

Pretty amazing for Obama

Iowa has an 2.5% African American population. This means the candidate has the potential for very broad support nationwide. Hillary and Edwards are not toast yet, but given the point spread and the amount of money they spent for mediocre results, my money is now behind Obama. How delicious an Obama v. Huckabee race would be!

“I despise ideologues masquerading as objective journalists.” - Bill O'Reilly, March 30, 2007

Mark January 3, 2008 - 11:21pm

Huckleberry Hound will not be President

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QT9FuPN__OY

http://www.cartooncritters.com/huckleberryhound.htm

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

mauberly January 3, 2008 - 11:49pm

I've been rooting for Huckster or Mormney to take the nomination

because I believe it's more than the propaganda machine is capable of to pass one of those guys off as the winner of the general election. If the bastards steal it again, I want it to be in the harshest of broad daylight.

Besides, I don't know how I'll be able to contemplate voting for a Vichy Democrat unless he/she is running against a real lulu.

chalo January 4, 2008 - 3:12am

If I were Edwards

I'd feel pretty good about keeping up with the Clinton Machine. But, I'm no political prognosticator.

ww January 3, 2008 - 11:50pm

Be sure what you wish for

Hi everyone !

Good to see there is some change in the air in america ... Just be sure you democrats make the good choice. The Taste of fresh and young flesh sure sounds attractive but ... We will see how this plays out when the guy has to face out people who won't give hime any chance ...

I talk by experience, I've been attracted to a yound politician here in Quebec, could be the same story ... And he turned out to be a hay fire ... I want to think Obama won't be like that but time will tell.My heart has been broken I don't want yours to be too !

Communist in heart, socialist in the head, capitalist in the pocket ...

Mathieu January 4, 2008 - 12:12am

Nice to see you!

What have you been up to lately?

"The best-informed man is not necessarily the wisest. Indeed there is a danger that precisely in the multiplicity of his knowledge he will lose sight of what is essential."

- Dietrich Bonhoeffer

Escher Sketch January 4, 2008 - 12:37am

nice too "

Nice to see you all ,good to see some people hold the fort !

Seen where Arta is posting lately ? I miss here analysis as I get back some interest in american politics !

Communist in heart, socialist in the head, capitalist in the pocket ...

Mathieu January 4, 2008 - 1:44am

Arta is posting

at TPM, if you still have the need.

Can't find Marek anywhere, unless he's changed names. "Who" are you now, wherever you are posting, or are you only doing "French-Canadian":-)? We never got why the Bloc collapsed BTW.

_{1."George Washington did not cross the Delaware for Capitalism," -Shmuley Boteach.
2.The Dems haven't punished the GOP enough, so you're going to reward the Republicans?}

nymole January 4, 2008 - 12:23pm

Obama/Edwards?

I like the prospect of Obama winning -- even though I bet $10 against him -- and I like the prospect of an Obama/Edwards ticket...

Edwards will probably be done: he doesn't have the cash that Obama has, plus Edwards had the huge GOTV base in Iowa, which amounted to naught. Without Iowa, he can't muster the momentum.

At 11:05pm central time, it looks like Clinton is coming in third with 7 votes less than Edwards, 100% reporting.

--
http://bexhuff.com
Of COURSE you can trust the US Government! Just ask the Indians.

bex January 4, 2008 - 1:11am

who wants to be Hillary's VP?

seriously... Edwards gave it his best shot, but now he can play kingmaker. Who will he choose?

Be the VP of a younger, more energetic man... but who has basically the same values, and could put America back on track...

Or, be the VP for Clinton?

Which is the least emasculating for Edwards?

--
http://bexhuff.com
Of COURSE you can trust the US Government! Just ask the Indians.

bex January 4, 2008 - 1:14am

It's not clear to

me that Obama has the same values. It's also not clear to me that Obama is more energetic than Edwards, who is the energizer bunny and famous for going 24 to 48 hours in a row.

I don't know, I don't like either of Obama or Clinton. But I trust Obama less than I trust Clinton, because Clinton isn't spouting BS about bipartisanship all the time.

http://openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3002

Ian Welsh January 4, 2008 - 2:01am

nothing wrong with bipartisanship

Howard Dean spoke of bipartisanship as well... as did Paul Wellstone.

If you want to permanently bury the Bush legacy, you have to bury Karl Rove tactics as well... which means going back to a time where Republicans and Democrats can politely disagree.

--
http://bexhuff.com
Of COURSE you can trust the US Government! Just ask the Indians.

bex January 4, 2008 - 12:20pm

That ain't

happening because Democrats disarm. Trying to be "reasonable" and "fair" hasn't worked. You get politeness when folks understand the consequences of not being polite are to be avoided.

Republicans need a lesson.

Everyone says nice things about bipartisanship occasionally. But Dean's message was that he was "from the Democratic wing of the Democratic party". Obama's message is that if only we'd all work together it'd be a land of milk and honey. Which while it has some truth to it, is like saying that if only I had a billion bucks I'd be rich.

Republicans aren't going to operate in good faith, and nothing they have done since 94 indicates otherwise.

I love fantasies--but I try not to believe them.

Obama's selling a load of BS and the fact that people want to believe it doesn't make it true.

Ian Welsh January 5, 2008 - 3:01am

bipartisanship with the R's

... is fantasyland material. Thats why their mighty wurlitzer is busy playing Obama's tune now. His message makes the Dems an easy mark. Edwards gets it.

ww January 5, 2008 - 7:21am

WOW

Who are we kidding? Is it really a contest over who's a better candidate for progressives, Obama or Clinton? Or who Edwards would prefer between the two? He is genuinely against Clinton. I've seen him say as much feet away from me, and that he was much closer politically to Obama. But you don't have to have seen him up close in Iowa to know that. I think if we collect our senses for a moment, we know that he'll endorse Obama in a heartbeat once his own candidacy ultimately fails, which barring a miracle now, it will. I shouldn't even have to count the ways Obama would obviously deserve our support over Clinton. Most of you are much smarter than I am.

Nominay January 4, 2008 - 1:56am

I'm an independent

so I'm not sure my opinion matters, but I agree with you.

I think Edwards voters will migrate to Obama. People want change. Obama is change. While the rest claim to be, they're more of the same.

Whether change proves a good thing remains to be seen.

Whoever inherits the office will inherit a country and a world in terrible shape. Any promises made will be impossible to keep as macro events shape policy (Peak Oil, Climate Change, Overpopulation, Resource Depletion), causing war, famine and mass migrations of people.

I did inhale.

Don January 4, 2008 - 9:46am

See a tongue-in-cheek pictorial on the Iowa primary

To see a tongue-in-cheek review of the Iowa primary in pictures...link here:

www.thoughttheater.com

Daniel DiRito January 4, 2008 - 2:03am

I'm hoping that national turnout ends up...

echoing what we see in Iowa: that not only we see a 2:1 turnout between dems and 'thugs, but that the Dem candidate shows a similar lead to what we see here (I haven't reviewed the numbers, but I've heard that Hillary at 3rd-place on the Dem side received 2x as many votes as Huck did winning on the 'thug side).

While I'm a little bummed that Dodd dropped out, I hope that pressure may be brought to bear, to make him the next Majority Leader. I feel that he might be more effective there than Reid has been so far (but a little whisper in my ghost is telling me that you have to put a man in that position to see what he'll actually do...words don't equal acts). I want somebody in leadership willing not only to make the present Administration's remaining days hellish, but constantly remind them that the hell doesn't stop just because they're done with the Presidency--any documents avoiding the shredder or the delete button will become available to investigators looking for prosecutable offenses.

To sum up--we not only need to get that President who can revive our flagging image internationally and domestically, but one that can revere the system on which their Office is created and based, and will work *with* the Legislature and the Court to ensure that it'll never be so mangled and debased ever again.

I think maybe I agree with that writer on DKos I read a couple months back....it might be a good idea to explore whether the USA needs a new Constitutional Convention, to properly overhaul not only the Electoral setup, but all the present principles of Office, Powers&Rights, Evidence, Succession, and so on, to bring our 'living document' into the 21st Century while continuing to revere the principles on which the Original was writen and enacted 220 years ago.....

-5.75,-4.05
Certainly there are things in life that money can't buy, but it's very funny--
Did you ever try buying them without money?
-- Ogden Nash

justadood January 4, 2008 - 2:30am

Obama, Paul Win MySpace Primary

Here.

...

The winner among Democratic candidates was Sen. Barack Obama, who is among the leaders heading into today's caucus.

But more surprising is the victory by Rep. Ron Paul—a Republican candidate who is considered a major long shot in 2008. Overall, MySpace said that 153,226 members voted in the online primary.

Obama took in 46 percent of the Democratic vote, trailed by Sen. Hillary Clinton's 31 percent. Meanwhile, Paul's surprising win came with 37 percent of the MySpace Republican vote, with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee taking the second and third place slots at 18 and 16 percent, respectively.

The MySpace Presidential Primary started just after 3:00 a.m. EST on New Year's Day, and concluded just before midnight on Jan. 2.

The News Corp.-owned site reported that the average age of the participants was 29 years old, and that the vast majority of those participants planned to vote in the actual election this year. Thus, as the 2008 presidential campaign continues to unfold over the next several months, MySpace plans to release a series of polls meant to gauge the interest and attitudes of its membership base on the race for the White House.

I did inhale.

Don January 4, 2008 - 12:04pm

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