Just wanted to share this interesting forecast from the medicine agency blog:

http://medicineagency.com/blog/archives/293

We've got a country with serious extremist elements and deep cultural divisions, ruled by a military strongman. Sounds a lot like Iraq, no? The major differences, of course, being:

• There's not much oil to speak of in Pakistan, and...
• Pakistan has the bomb.

Sigh...

On the whole, I agree with your analysis. But I think you could clarify what you say here:

"One of the parts of the decline of American Empire has been the increasingly colonial component. Previously American military force was used to hold the frontiers against the USSR and PRC, while internal elites were used to control most of the important countries. We didn't need to station military forces in countries that were part of the empire. Now we must."

American troops are stationed around the world, and have been for quite some time. Is what's going on now a qualitative difference, or maybe just a quantitative one?

Lawyers hold govt responsible for Benazir Bhutto’s killing

LAHORE: Lawyers have denounced the killing of PPP chairperson Benazir Bhutto and have called her death a national tragedy. They have held the government responsible for the incident and have demanded that President Pervez Musharraf should step down, as he is a ‘security risk’ for Pakistan. Daily Times spoke to several prominent lawyers after Ms Bhutto’s death. Most of them said that if the government was not directly involved in her killing, it was definitely negligent in providing her security. They said the Musharraf regime had failed to maintain law and order in Pakistan. They said there was no point for the PPP to participate in the farcical elections. Hamid Khan, who is one of the leaders of the lawyers’ movement, called the killing an assassination, saying the government was responsible for Ms Bhutto’s death. He said that if the government could not arrange for adequate security in a city like Rawalpindi, which was a garrison town, it definitely could not keep the other cities secure. He said lawyers had been protesting against the Musharraf regime for a year. He said Ms Bhutto’s death was a great loss to democracy and that now the PPP should not participate in the elections. He also demanded a national government be set up with equal participation of all political parties, which would hold free and fair elections. He said the lawyers’ movement against the government would continue. PPP leader and People’s Lawyers Forum chairman Latif Khan Khosa, who was present at the bombing at Liaqat Bagh, told Daily Times that, “They have martyred her at last.” His son Khurram Khosa said the government was responsible for the killing. He said no political party was safe, as several Nawaz Sharif supporters were shot dead in Rawalpindi on the same day. He said no party should participate in the elections. Former PPP law minister SM Masood said that the chances of Sindh disintegrating into chaos or even breaking away from Pakistan would increase. Talking about the PPP’s survival without Ms Bhutto, he said he could not see anyone substituting for her. “Benazir’s demise could be the death knell for the PPP,” he added. staff report

Daily Times

In light of this Agonist post yesterday, and Bhutto's assassination today,

U.S. Troops to Head to Pakistan

William Arkin | Dec 26 | WaPo

Beginning early next year, U.S. Special Forces are expected to vastly expand their presence in Pakistan, as part of an effort to train and support indigenous counter-insurgency forces and clandestine counterterrorism units, according to defense officials involved with the planning.
....
According to Pentagon sources, reaching a different agreement with Pakistan became a priority for the new head of the U.S. Special Operations Command, Adm. Eric T. Olson....

Do these terrorists speak Urdu, Pashto, Balti, or Dari? In this impoverished country with too little water or schools but plenty of military spending on a border war with India, do locals support them out of fear, or from hopelessness, vengeance, or corruption? What can Adm. Olson offer to convince them of a better way?

Where declines in energy is destabilizing a region.

Last year was the year that 'load shedding' began to occur on a daily basis in Pakistan. In the summer months, regions of the country had to literally turn off their electricity grid. Electricity was cycled around the country on average about 22 hours per day.

This year it is forecast to be much worse. Load shedding is forecast to rise to four hours per day in cities and six hours per day in rural areas. During peak summer it could be as much as twelve hours per day in some areas.

Imagine having your power off for two or four or six hours per day, and not being sure when it would be. Imagine the disruption to your life.

The age of 24 hour per day power is gone in Pakistan. The heightened level of unrest has also been over this period.

Power shortages, and the end of gasoline subsidies have led to riots in over twenty countries in the last four years. China has had gas lines and riots over rising gas and diesel prices, and load shedding. England is going through lory anger right now. The Myanmar unrest was precipitated by the end of gasoline subsidies, as were the riots in Iran last summer. Much of the conflict in Nigeria is over oil in the Delta region, and over water in the Darfur region because the oil region has taken that water resource area away from the 'commons'

We are entering the Age of Resource Wars and Armed Conflict.

Countries to watch in the future will include Venezuela, Argentina, Chile, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia. Even France, Germany and Spain could experience load shedding; and so could the west coast of the United States.

We are running out of energy, and the response is violence.

Chronicle of a Death Foretold

Today's Must Read
By Spencer Ackerman - December 28, 2007, 9:11AM

Who murdered Benazir Bhutto? U.S. authorities don't know. They may never know. And they're not ruling anything in or out.

To recap our debate yesterday, the first-blush assessment from most experts held that al-Qaeda is responsible. Others, including political adversaries of Pervez Musharraf, then suggested Musharraf's government was at least culpable, given the porousness of security Bhutto received in the garrison city of Rawalpindi where she was assassinated. Still others caution that Pakistani Islamic terrorist groups with agendas distinct from al-Qaeda's might be more likely candidates.

That appears to still be the lay of the land. Bhutto's party, the Pakistan People's Party, is demanding an official inquiry, though it's unclear (to me at least) whether Musharraf has agreed to one. But here's one development to watch in the event of a probe. In the Los Angeles Times, Josh Meyer reports that Pakistan hasn't yet replied to U.S. investigators who've offered to help.

more

some interestng and um spirited conversations on Pakistani politics and the death of Bhutto

http://forum.atimes.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=11701