Morgan Stanley Issues US Recession Alert


Got to hand it to the geniuses at Morgan Stanley for stating the obvious. From The Telegraph:

Morgan Stanley has issued a full recession alert for the US economy, warning of a sharp slowdown in business investment and a "perfect storm" for consumers as the housing slump spreads.

Make no mistake, I have nothing but respect and lingering affection for my former employers, but their economics and strategy shop just isn't the same with the loss of Byron Wein, Barton Biggs and Stephen Roach. Were this 1998 the quality of commentary coming out of MS headquarters would be vastly superior to what it is now. Dick Berner's a smart cookie, but I just wonder if he has the chops to manage as prestigious a strategy and economics shop as Morgan's.


Sean Paul Kelley December 11, 2007 - 7:17pm
( categories: Economics: USA )

And dear Morgan Stanley, your part in this was what? Underwriting standards?

Synoia December 11, 2007 - 7:41pm

that as fads in investing go, they have historically avoided them. They didn't get caught flat-footed like so many others in the Russian ruble default of 1998. And I confess to being surprised their exposure to the sub-prime mess was as high as it was. I bet, and this is just an assumption, that if Phil Purcell was still around that might not have happened. Phil knew credit, if you recall Discover card was his baby.

“Is not our first thought to go on the road? The road is our source, our vault of treasures, our wealth. Only on the road does the ‘traveller’ feel like himself, at home.”
Ryszard Kapuscinski

Sean Paul Kelley December 11, 2007 - 7:44pm

All of the CDO packagers wanted high-interest subprime & Alt-A (not quite so bad) loans desperately. MS leaned on Countrywide et. al. "I want 2billion a year!".

Forget it, Jake - it's AmnesiaTown

Tonsure Wimple December 13, 2007 - 3:10am

The people who are willing to put money down on a recession in 2008 are in the minority. It's not obvious to everyone yet.

LJ December 11, 2007 - 10:20pm

A one quarter percent cut in interest rates generates a gain in the stock market of minus 290 points...

Seems like those in the know are keeping the thing going while they slowly but surely inch toward the exit signs.

I did inhale.

Don December 11, 2007 - 11:02pm

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news;

and its reported the stock market wanted one half a point....

So a selling event & a disapointment.

Synoia December 12, 2007 - 12:38am

1/4 of the way through. I put up in September.

I started by asking the Calcutta-born Australian [Satyajit Das] whether the credit crisis was in what Americans would call the "third inning." This was pretty amusing, it seemed, judging from the laughter. So I tried again. "Second inning?" More laughter. "First?"

Still too optimistic. Das, who knows as much about global money flows as anyone in the world, stopped chuckling long enough to suggest that we're actually still in the middle of the national anthem before a game destined to go into extra innings. And it won't end well for the global economy.

LJ December 12, 2007 - 1:26am

Anyone notice how 2005-2007 were banner years for taking companies "private"? That's usually polite-speak for Leveraged Buyout (LBO). Unfortunately, it's usually a case of a buyout done with good old US-type financing--you mortgage future earnings to pay for the buyout.

Many "private" companies thus formed are drowning in debt. Wait for the implosions...

Petronius December 12, 2007 - 1:54am

but he wasn't actually that great for market types. I remember when he went Bullish last year and I said "OMG, so the recession is just around the corner". He makes me look like a roaring bull, he's so bearish.

Ian Welsh December 12, 2007 - 1:19am

eom


1."George Washington did not cross the Delaware for Capitalism," -Shmuley Boteach.
2.The Dems haven't punished the GOP enough, so you're going to reward the Republicans?

nymole December 12, 2007 - 1:49am

I believe in Hong Kong.

“Is not our first thought to go on the road? The road is our source, our vault of treasures, our wealth. Only on the road does the ‘traveller’ feel like himself, at home.”
Ryszard Kapuscinski

Sean Paul Kelley December 12, 2007 - 11:17am

This is a rolling failure of CDOs. First high-interest mortgages, then credit card CDOs will start blowing up. Student loan defaults are anybody's guess: there is a big overlap between the student loan cohort and the credit card "oops!" debt cohort.

And then there are CDO-squared: CDO hedges of CDOs. And CDO-cubed...

We're so brilliant!

Forget it, Jake - it's AmnesiaTown

Tonsure Wimple December 13, 2007 - 3:14am

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