So yeah - what has the value of oil been doing for the last few years when compared to the declining value of the dollar?

I'd love to see a graph showing say the last ten years that simultaneously presented the value of the dollar, value of oil per barrel in dollars and the track of the resulting absolute price change.

Oy. This is like figuring out relativistic effects in physics - trying to find meaningful reference points in the absence of a fixed frame of reference.

but that describes Newtonian mechanics too... :P. They don't mention it in Physics 101, but choosing, say, the ground as a frame of reference in a projectile motion problem is completely arbitrary--its just done for convenience because it makes the math a lot easier. And don't get me going on potential energy... :).

On topic: Isn't the dollar more-or-less tied to oil via the "petrodollar?" I don't know the intricacies of the connection, but I would guess that the best way to measure the price of a barrel of oil is to track its cost in inflation-adjusted dollars over time. You could do it in any currency--all that matters (as in much of physics) is how much it changes over time. Your fixed reference point is simply the currency of your choosing, though I think the US dollar would be the "natural" choice... much like the ground in the above-mentioned projectile-motion problem.

Calculator

relative calculators

even in euros, iirc.

Which doesn't do Americans much damn good.

but American and Americans at all levels. The government isn't solely responsible for the balance of payments or the trade deficit - Americans as a group - both business and individual, kicked in in an orgy of debt driven spending.

The stock market is currently at 13300. If it is repriced into 2006 valued US dollars the DOW is actually at 8,645.

That is basically the same level as it was after 9-11. In undiluted dollar terms this stock market has gone nowhere. It is simply being denominated in a lower valued currency. The market isn't UP, the dollar is DOWN.

used to publish graphs with the S&P 500 in Pound or Euro values (poor pound). Haven't run them in a while. I'm sure they aren't pretty.

It would be great if you could resurrect those graphs.

Is that as John Edwards likes to say, there are two Americas. In the rich, corporate America things are just barely hitting a snag in an overall whopper of a bull market. In the other America, everyone has been providing that bull market by living in a recession for the past 5 years. You see, one America is a vampire and the other is its victim. To the vampire everything was great right up until the victim ran out of blood, to the victim it was always a drain on vitality.

It's not that now it is time to pay the fiddler, the poor have been paying for years upon years. The difference now is that the tap is run dry and the "winners" can't double down and put it off until tomorrow. Everyone gets to lose, everyone gets to pay - which was the only possible outcome. Only question was when.

The answer looks like 2007-2008 IMHO ;)

that really give one pause in the vampire theory. The one that really hit me when I read it was that the number of miles driven in the nation has been flat in 2007 with 2006. It is the first time that has happened in something like 35 years.

The other one is that even though driving has not increased, we have been drawing down our oil stockpiles to the tune of 1.5 million barrels per WEEK in 2007. The draw has led to a 35 million barrel decline since February 2007. That means that flat demand continues to overdraw on supplies ALL YEAR LONG.

House prices have fallen 3.5%. Check.
Value of dollar has fallen 35% in 2007. Check.
Defaults are reaching toward 4%. Check.
I am seeing house for sale signs going up like dandelions in spring. Car sales have fallen from 16.5 million to 15.5 million (down 6%). Check.
Number of uninsured up 2.2 million. Check.
Bankruptcies through the roof. Check.
Bridge down in Minneapolis. An absolute FUBAR. Check.
(and A Senator cruising for Gay sex. Also, strangely, in Minneapolis. Check.)

Buckle up, we are in for a bumpy ride.

But the rising price of oil and the falling supplies is what really gets my attentiion. It is what holds the whole damn thing together.

Then Lawrence Lindsey estimated $100B and got fired for it. By March 03 the Pentagon was saying $60B. Rummy wouldn't put out a number, except to say Shinseki's estimate of the number of troops required was just ridiculous.

Was just thinking about the 300mil that was stolen from an Iraqi bank a few weeks ago.

###
Iraq War Cost

"There are two types of folk music:
quiet folk music and loud folk music.
I play both."

Dave Alvin

Another tactic is to liquidate existing assets. For most people in this country, that translates to an extra mortage or turning in retirement funds. (Which is what the parents end up doing.)

esp. in SoCal, you're starting to see both...defaulting on credit cards AND foreclosing on the house.

Speaking from personal experience, though, the credit companies will at times provide a way out: a one-time pay-down and card cancel. You pay an amount approximately equal to teh credit principle minus Interest and they consider the "deal" closed. Saved my ass when I was about $50,000 down. The hard part is recognising you're in that position *before* your credit rating is totally screwed (I was too late).

-5.75,-4.05 Rule of the Great:
When people you greatly admire appear to be thinking deep
thoughts, they probably are thinking about lunch.

that the credit card company is going to be willing to let you do that until your credit rating takes a dive. (Good credit risk is worth more than bad credit risk.)

Deflator is generally considered the most accurate I'm afraid.

Considering value of the dollar on the world economy It takes $1,000 today to buy what $100 US currency in 1970 would buy. Considering the world is our creditor I think this is going to begin to matter.

Noticed the other day, a number of nations beginning to ask for a say in US monitary policy since they are stakeholders now.

If you check out some of the other videos this guy has done, you will see that the markets are being artificially maintained while big institutional players head for the exit and leave little guys holding the bag.

Buy stocks? Invest in a 401-K?

I don't f'n think so.

I did inhale.