Wags Wisdom: "Sell In May and Go Away"


This is funny:

The hell with selling in May. The S&P 500 finished the month with a 3.2% gain, the Dow rose 4.3%, and the Nasdaq picked up 2.7%. Month-end window dressing may have played a part in the market’s resilience today, at a time when there are still negatives to be concerned about, but for now, equity investors remain steady. “It’s not a perfect world, but it’s not too bad either,” says Charles Rotblut, equity strategist at Zacks Investment Research.

No one, I repeat, no one can pick tops. It can't be done. I've a feeling when we look back at May from say September, October or November of this year those of us who did sell--or raised cash, reallocate, whatever you want to call it--will be pleased with our choice(s). It's that whole buy low, sell high concept, ya dig? Performance is important, but it's all about how much alpha you capture: wouldn't you rather have 80% of 1,000 point move than 30% of one?

I thought so.

Or, as I used to say to clients when we made a profitable sale and they worried it would still go up: "there are few things I can guarantee in the investing biz, but this I can. If you sell at a profit I guarantee you'll not go broke."

You'd be surprised how many people didn't understand what I was telling them.


Sean Paul Kelley May 31, 2007 - 6:46pm
( categories: Economics: USA | The Markets )

Two parts to any trade. PIcking the right time to get in, and picking the right time to get out. I used to be very good at part 1, and pretty lousy at part 2.

Or as the old saying goes - greed and fear are what kill traders and investors.

Ian Welsh May 31, 2007 - 7:38pm

made a mistake. Always.

"There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all argument, and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. This principle is, contempt prior to examination."

Sean Paul Kelley May 31, 2007 - 8:00pm

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