...of a quote ascribed to a Mossad training officer by Ostrovsky (in the good first book, not the nuttier follow-up) regarding relationships with intelligence officers from "allied" services, to the effect of: "Remember, when you are sitting with your friend, he is not sitting with his friend." The principle's seemed in play to me for as long as I've ever followed US-Israel relations...

"Political Islam is a dream or a nightmare, but not a sociological reality." - Olivier Roy, Globalized Islam: The Search for a New Ummah

Viewpoint #30
November 10, 2006
Elections 2006

[Ed Note: Morris J. Amitay, JINSA’s Vice Chairman, assesses the impact of the 2006 mid-term elections on JINSA’s mandate.]

Given JINSA’s twin mandate to support a credible national defense and encourage closer U.S.-Israel ties, how does the outcome of the recent mid-term elections affect its agenda? Overall, the Democratic takeover of the House and the Senate does not bode particularly well for furthering these objectives.

In the House, much will depend on whether a moderate wing, reinforced by a number of relatively conservative newcomers, can halt the leftward drift of the party in recent years. The Majority Leader race between Jack Murtha (Penn.), with his call for an immediate pullout from Iraq, and the current Whip, Steny Hoyer (Md.), should reveal a great deal about the future direction of House Democrats. With his rallying fellow Dems to back pro-Israel initiatives and centrist approach, Hoyer offers a stark contrast to Murtha and his supporters. Murtha’s own military experience and role on the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee gained him a pro-defense reputation in the past. Energized, however, by the publicity and adulation he received from the anti-war forces for his calls to abandon Iraq, Murtha has changed his behind-the-scenes profile and is now seeking a leadership spot. The soon-to-be Speaker, Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), has cultivated some ties with Jewish groups, but will not be as directly involved in legislative activities and initiatives affecting Israel, though she will obviously play a key role in general. What is worrisome is that some fringe Jewish groups and wealthy liberal supporters whose views on Israel and national defense can (charitably) be described as “dovish” will have greater influence on a Democratically-controlled Congress.

A number of very senior Democrats who will be chairing major House committees rank in the bottom 10 percent of the class (of 435) when it comes to Israel-related issues and support for robust defense expenditures. They are:

David Obey (Wisc.) - Appropriations
John Conyers (Mich.) - Judiciary
John Dingell (Mich.) - Energy and Commerce
George Miller (Calif.) - Education and Work Force
Nick Rahall (W. Virg.) - Resources

In fact, all five voted recently against the Palestinian Anti-Terrorism Act, which passed 361 to 37. While wielding influence on the party and attracting media attention, hopefully they will be more engaged with domestic issues rather than those affecting JINSA’s major interests.

On the positive side, Tom Lantos (Calif.) is in line to take over as chair of the House International Relations Committee. Israel has no stronger, effective, committed supporter in Congress who works well with his GOP colleagues. The new chair of the Foreign Operations Appropriation Committee will be Nita Lowey (Ny.), which should be regarded as a plus. If Murtha moves on to a leadership position, Norm Dicks (Wash.) would chair the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. Dicks is a friend of both the defense and pro-Israel communities. Based on his record, Ike Skelton (Mo.), who is in line to be chair of the Armed Services Committee, should present few problems.

(...)

On the negative side of the ledger, four staunch Senate supporters of JINSA’s mandate lost their re-election contests - Rick Santorum (Penn.), Mike DeWine (Ohio), Jim Talent (MO) - and George Allen (Virg.). Allen’s replacement, Jim Webb has recently advocated a “regional approach” in the Middle East. This is a cause for concern because it would invariably mean putting pressure on Israel for further concessions in order to placate our Arab “allies”. Santorum was the leader in the Senate in seeking regime change in Iran and thwarting its nuclear ambitions.

With a Democratic Senate majority, Joe Biden (Del.) (who is running for President in ‘08) will take over the helm of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. While he could be considered as a better choice than Dick Lugar (Ind.), whom he will replace, Biden can be erratic at times and go off on his own foreign policy tangents. Patrick Leahy (Vt.), who will chair the Judiciary Committee, is also in line to chair the Foreign Operations Subcommittee of Appropriations. As a frequent critic of Israel who has supported few positive initiatives, he is no great friend of the defense establishment either. Robert Byrd (W. Virg.), with the worst Israel-related record in the Senate, will chair the full Appropriations Committee. Hopefully, Byrd will not interject himself in specific defense appropriations issues where Dan Inouye (Hawaii) will be in charge, working well with his GOP counterpart, Ted Stevens (Alaska), both in tune with our agenda. Carl Levin (Mich.) will replace John Warner (Virg.) as chair of the Armed Services Committee - a net plus on strictly Israel -related issues - but not on certain defense programs.

The new 110th Congress will undoubtedly seek to have a say in future U.S. actions in Iraq, with the outcome there bearing directly on the future of the entire region. Here Iran’s role will be of paramount importance, with signs now pointing ominously to a policy of accommodation with the mullahs - and their nuclear ambitions. The challenge will be for a lame duck Republican administration to be able to work with a Democratic Congress to devise a strategy that secures our country’s vital interests in the Middle East, while ensuring Israel’s security. If you add to this formidable task, the intense political preparations for the 2008 Presidential election, the increasingly negative trends in Latin America, North Korean nukes, Russia’s slide toward autocracy, the growing power of China - and, incidentally, the worldwide Islamofascist terrorist threat - we have a helluva year shaping up!

By JINSA Vice Chairman Morris J. Amitay.

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