Is It Sabre Rattling?


From The Nelson Report:

IRAQ WAR...with President Bush all but certain to order his version of the John McCain “send in more troops” plan, informed sources say they worry that Iran may misunderstand what it’s seeing, especially if DOD deploys not just ground troops, but more US Navy assets to the region.

Sources say they do not believe that new Defense Secretary Bill Gates has a “new plan” to pressure Tehran by sending another US carrier group to the Gulf...but they concede that such a posting may be in the works, and for the purpose of getting Iran’s attention.

Despite that, they say that Bush intends to “go slow” on Iran next year, a decision reinforced by the electoral set-back just suffered by the insufferable President Ahmadinejad in local elections over the weekend.

However, with US ground forces almost certain to be sent into Iraq, these sources warn that should some be posted up by the Iranian border, many in the Middle East, and not just in Tehran, might mistakenly conclude that Bush is preparing for “the military option” against Iran.

Not so, we are assured. Even if Bush decides to show Iran how unhappy he is about the nuclear crisis, for example, or Iran’s continued encouragement to Shiite blood letting in Iraq, putting US troops into a provocative position along the border is “an unlikely option...in the near term.”

Duly noted.


Sean Paul Kelley December 20, 2006 - 10:11pm
( categories: Iran )

Here is Robert Parry:

A Very Dangerous New Year

By Robert Parry
December 21, 2006
The first two or three months of 2007 represent a dangerous opening for an escalation of war in the Middle East, as George W. Bush will be tempted to “double-down” his gamble in Iraq by joining with Israel’s Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and outgoing British Prime Minister Tony Blair to strike at Syria and Iran, intelligence sources say.

President Bush’s goal would be to transcend the bloody quagmire bogging down U.S. forces in Iraq by achieving “regime change” in Syria and by destroying nuclear facilities in Iran, two blows intended to weaken Islamic militants in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.

The Israeli army and air force would carry the brunt of any new fighting albeit with the support of beefed-up U.S. ground and naval forces in the Middle East, the sources said. Bush is now considering a “surge” in U.S. troop levels in Iraq from about 140,000 to as many as 170,000. He also has dispatched a second aircraft carrier group to the coast of Iran.
...
Bush and Blair spearheaded the March 2003 invasion of Iraq that has since turned into a disastrous occupation. In summer 2006, Olmert launched offensives against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, drawing international condemnation for the deaths of hundreds of civilians and domestic criticism for his poorly designed war plans.

The three leaders also find themselves cornered by political opponents. Bush’s Republican Party lost control of both the House and Senate on Nov. 7; Blair succumbed to pressure from his own Labour Party and agreed to step down in spring 2007; and Olmert is suffering from widespread public disgust over the failed Lebanese war.

Yet, despite these reversals, the three leaders have rebuffed advice from more moderate advisers that they adopt less confrontational strategies and consider unconditional negotiations with their Muslim adversaries.
...
Rather than scale back his neoconservative dream of transforming the Middle East, Bush argued for an expanded U.S. military to wage this long war.

“We must make sure that our military has the capability to stay in the fight for a long period of time,” Bush said. “I’m not predicting any particular theater, but I am predicting that it’s going to take a while for the ideology of liberty to finally triumph over the ideology of hate. …

“We’re in the beginning of a conflict between competing ideologies – a conflict that will determine whether or not your children can live in a peace. A failure in the Middle East, for example, or failure in Iraq, or isolationism, will condemn a generation of young Americans to permanent threat from overseas.”
...
n December 2006, Meyray Wurmser, a leading U.S. neoconservative whose spouse is a Middle East adviser to Vice President Cheney, confirmed that neocons in and outside the Bush administration had hoped Israel would attack Syria as a means of undermining the insurgents in Iraq.

“If Syria had been defeated, the rebellion in Iraq would have ended,” Wurmser said in an interview with Yitzhak Benhorin of the Ynet Web site. “A great part of it was the thought that Israel should fight against the real enemy, the one backing Hezbollah. … If Israel had hit Syria, it would have been such a harsh blow for Iran that it would have weakened it and (changed) the strategic map in the Middle East.”
...
Betting the lives of American soldiers and countless civilians across the Middle East, Bush will follow the age-old adage of gambling addicts: in for a dime, in for a dollar.
http://www.consortiumnews.com/2006/122006.html

Parry's views - no doubt - can be dismissed as have those of Sy Hersh, Scott Ritter, and others who were predicting US attacks on Iran, Syria, or both by year's end. However, given the enormous internal conflicts within Junior's administration, and the necessity of giving PR offensives and personnel changes time to work their way through the media and public consumption (Rumsfeld's dismissal, rejection of Baker/Hamilton, replacement of resistant generals, etc.), the massing of navy task forces in the Gulf can't be tossed away as so much pro forma show-the-flag gestures. Something is up, but it's impossible as yet to suss out the end strategy, as too many forces contending within the WH have yet to have established primacy, and more shake-outs are needed before a real "go" is given re: Iran/Syria. Junior's pseudo-millenarist views are resolute, and the driver remains his "legacy", as he defines it.

barrisj redux December 21, 2006 - 5:29pm

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