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This evening I was on the Chris Duel Show and Dr. Mike Fanning and I and Chris had an hour and a half long discussion about the Middle East, Iraq, Iran and Israel. We took several callers and none of them were 'crazies' as we call them in radio. It was a very surprising and rewarding experience because for the first time in years I was a part of a conversation about the Middle East that was serious, nuanced and no one resorted to name calling, hyperventilation and innuendo to make their point. If we had more of this in America today I might actually be somewhat optimistic. As it is, we were discussing a very grim topic, the potential for regional war to erupt and the Shi'a-Sunni schism. It's a long show, clocking in at 50 minutes, but I'm certain you will find much of it as rewarding as I did. Update: The inversion is something weird I am unable to fix right now, as it is late. I will see what I can do tomorrow.
Update: The inversion is something weird I am unable to fix right now, as it is late. I will see what I can do tomorrow.
...and have two comments related to some things your colleague said:
1) Unless I really, really missed something, Hamas is not in any way a Shia organization. There's certainly evidence for co-operation with Hizbullah and dialogue with the Syrian and Iran leaderships - all of which are Shia, but Hamas itself is Sunni. There was some talk earlier this year about a Shia group setting up in the OT - tellingly, Hamas went well out of their way to undercut this notion (ironically, it may well have been the last thing they agreed with Fatah on).
2) Not sure that I would simplify Iraq to the extent that insurgents=Sunni / government=Shia. This dichotomy would seem to minimize the central role of the Mahdi Army. My understanding is that the Interior Ministry is SCIRI dominated, but that there's a lot of ethnic cleansing going on under the aegis of the Mahdi Army, who're false-flagging as the government. These guys in many ways have the same vested interest in instability as do the Sunni insurgents.
Good show. Feeling pretty jealous about Iran myself...
"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.
while on air, but since I wasn't 100% I didn't want to correct Dr. Fanning. It's a fine edge sometimes when dealing with a new guest on a show and I prefer to make friends not enemies of the new guests. As to point #2, well, you are right again, and I would just say that in the context of what we did last night getting into that level of nuance might really have turned some folks off. And the point really was to educate. The host took an hour and a half of DRIVE TIME radio to do this and is to be applauded. But yeah, for us here, your comments are well received and duly noted. I will pass them on. ;-)
"There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all argument, and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. This principle is, contempt prior to examination."
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/800871.html
Thanks for your comments. You are absolutely correct...Hamas is a Sunni organization. However, recent moves by Hamas, including intelligence and military training by Hizbullah and a fledgling budding alliance with Iran, make a Hamas-Shiite alliance very likely. Granted, what draws these groups together is their absolute hatred from Israel, but nevertheless, it just underscores how the Middle East creates the strangest bedfellows.
Also, you are again correct that it is an oversimplification to equate the insurgents with Sunnis and the government with Shiites, but I was just trying to help folks get a basic grasp on some of the dynamics of the situation in Iraq. Most folks have no idea that Sunnis and Shiites are Muslims, much less the intracies and inner dynamics of the cultural and ethic tensions that exist just below the surface.
Thanks again for your comments. I appreciate the chance to perhaps expand a little more on my comments.
...of some sort between Hamas and "the Shia" writ large beyond what we've seen with Hizbullah (it was pretty evident during this past summer's activities, and I expect to see even more) but I am cautious in two respects:
1) There seems to be a real idea being pushed that there's a "grand unified Shia alliance of terror" or some such out there. I think this is more a political idea than an operational reality, in the sense that pundits who are trying to justify US support for a particular stream of Israeli policy cite this sort of danger as a prime mover. I tend to think that there is clearly something to the notion of this sort of alliance, but that the nature of the connections is a lot less formalized and a lot less close than the view the pundits are pushing. Groups of folks with agendas that both compete and compliment using each other are increasingly being pushed as a hierarchical arrangement, with Iran pulling the strings.
2) It's very clear from Hamas' actions that they place real, hard limits on the nature of this relationship. They very much want the support that comes from Iran and their proxies, but they are very, very congnizant of the dangers of allowing Iran to actually move in and have an operational presence on the ground in their homeland. Not least, if they go too far down that road they're going to be vulnerable to more hardline Salafis.
I'm totally sympathetic to the notion that one has to simplify and get basic ideas out there. My hat's off to you guys; getting ideas like this out there via radio, where everything happens on the fly with no script, no net and no "rewind, clarify comment" button - that's a tough, tough gig. Add to that it being an interactive format with callers and questions - yikes. It was a real eye opener to hear some of the questions that listeners had - though it was heartening to hear the extent to which they wanted more information about guys that they knew they really didn't understand well enough.
I look forward to future shows.
http://www.cfr.org/publication/10865/emerging_shia_crescent_symposium.html
Haven't had a listen yet, so YMMV.
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