but I also noticed how Chevron released findings of some huge field in the Gulf of Mexico that will solve all our domestic oil problems, and how the leak in Alaska wasn't so bad after all.

People are sheep and easily led and misled.

Watch how oil prices rebound after the November election.

I did inhale.

REFILE-US, world reserves can offset Iran oil for 18 months
03 Oct 2006 21:36:10 GMT

By Tom Doggett

WASHINGTON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - U.S. and world emergency crude oil reserves could replace a complete shut-off of Iranian oil exports for 18 months, avoiding an estimated $201 billion in damage to the American economy, the Government Accountability Office said on Tuesday.

There has been concern among energy traders that tough action by the United States and other western countries against Iran's nuclear program could cause Tehran to retaliate by cutting off the country's oil exports. Iran is the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, selling about 2.7 million barrels a day.

Such a disruption would remove close to 1.5 billion barrels of crude from the market over an 18-month period, according to the GAO, which is the investigative arm of the U.S. Congress.

more

UPDATE: U.S. Oil Reserves Not Big Enough For Worst-case Scenarios
Tuesday October 3rd, 2006 / 22h44

By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones) - International petroleum reserves are large and nimble enough to replace all the lost oil capacity in all but the most catastrophic scenarios, the Government Accountability Office said in report released Tuesday.

International reserves and excess capacity - including the 727 million barrel U.S. strategic petroleum reserve - could replace all the oil supply lost from a hypothetical Gulf of Mexico hurricane, or a lengthy strike in Venezuela, or an 18-month embargo of Iranian oil, or a major terrorist attack on oil facility in Saudi Arabia, the GAO said.

But reserves could not replace the lost capacity if the vital Strait of Hormuz were blocked for a month or if all Saudi oil production were shut down for 18 months, the report said.

"The SPR is an extremely valuable asset, and releasing oil from the reserve during oil supply disruptions could greatly reduce the damage to the U.S. economy," GAO said. "The SPR can currently release up to 4.4 million barrels of oil per day--about 44 percent of U.S. daily oil imports--for 90 days, and can release a diminishing amount of oil for an additional 90 days."

If all Saudi production were shut off for 18 months, the average quarterly price of crude oil would likely rise by $54 to $87 per barrel even if the global community threw all its reserves into the market, the GAO said. Saudi Arabia produces about 10 million barrels of crude oil a day.

A one-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Persian Gulf would likely raise the average quarterly crude oil prices by between $11 and $24 per barrel. About 17 million barrels of crude pass through the strait each day.

The price response to a supply disruption is very uncertain, with the two models used by the government giving very different results. One model, used by the Energy Information Administration, assumes the impact of the disruptions not only on supply but also on market psychology.

"Disruptions caused by violent events would have larger price impacts than disruptions caused by peaceful events, such as a strike or natural disaster," EIA told GAO.

more

U.S. to delay buying emergency oil through winter
02 Oct 2006 19:19:50 GMT

WASHINGTON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Department said on Monday it will hold off buying replacement oil for the nation's emergency petroleum stockpile through the upcoming winter heating season in order to keep more supplies on the market.

To help make more oil supplies available for producing gasoline over the summer and help lower then-soaring pump prices, U.S. President George W. Bush in April ordered the Energy Department to delay deliveries and purchases of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve until this autumn, which began on Sept. 22.

In these times you have to be an optimist to open your eyes when you awake in the morning. ~ Carl Sandburg

as Paulson has long been a good Republican.

It just reminded me that people in power can manipulate numbers any way they want, because the numbers derived are so now unrelated to the real thing, even with oil, and manipulation no longer seems to carry a moral value.

On the other hand, the sentence, "There's no more oil anywhere, for any price" will have weight.

That's why our ancestors believed in keeping their gold as close to their bodies as possible.

_{"at some point I'm hopeful I'll figure out something to put here"}

i put this up days ago and what response do i get?

*crickets*

/being naughty/

i'm glad that as a not economist my instinct was right to note this. more details about this from you experts are always welcome.

I read a diary a while back that claimed to demonstrate that the fall of gas prices couldn't be related to manipulation. I'll admit to being clueless on this stuff and I wouldn't mind hearing what folks have to say about this:

There is NO manipulation of gas prices. An explanation.
by Jerome a Paris

Sun Sep 17, 2006 at 12:39:31 PM PDT

The sharp drop in gas prices in recent weeks has given birth to many diaries or comments suggesting that this is a BigOil pre-electoral trick (too many to link to, in fact). I'd like, with the help of HiD, a former oil trader, to guide you through the explanations as to what is happening, which is perfectly understandable under normal market mechanisms under the current international context.

(...)

link

Surely closing the Straits of Hormuz would affect oil futures?

Just asking....