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Non-State ActorsLast night Col. Allard and I (and Jack to a lesser extent) went around and around and around on the issue of Hezbollah and Hamas. It was a really frustrating conversation because Col. Allard looks to Michael Ledeen when it comes to ideas about Iran and Israel and Palestine (again, to a lesser extent). The Ledeen school of thought is close to the Kristol-PNAC school of thought: there is little room for nuance and it's all Iran's fault. As I have said before, in other venues, there is circumstantial evidence that Iran influenced Hezbollah's latest escalation. After all, Iran was about ready to be dropped under the bus by China and Russia. I'm not 100% sure what the connection between the nuclear enrichment negotiations are, but the timimg is too much of a coincidence. What really burned me up last night was the insistence that Hezbollah is a puppet of Iran. They're not. They are a central part of the fabric of Lebanese society. Don't believe me, well then just look at this photo:
Who is it these two, obviously middle class guys, are watching on TV? And this is just one sample among many. Whether we like it or not Hezbollah is a part of Lebanese society and I seriously doubt that a two or three week Israeli air-campaign is going to change that reality. And if an air campaign is Israel's reaction after this escaltion, well, then Olmert is even more timid than I thought--and the Israelis need to get rid of him, fast. But the most worrisome aspect of the argument which was had by all last night on the radio was the deep divide between the Colonel's view of international actors like Hezbollah, Hamas and Al Qaeda and my view. The Colonel, at least as I have heard him argue, sees these groups as tools of states. This is a decidedly pre-9/11, more Cold War, way of looking at how they are organized, what kind of friction they can create and how we should fight them. I, however, see them much more differently. I see them as manipulators of states and infectors of states much more than as the tool of states. And it seems I am not alone. There is no question that Hezbollah was created by Iran, but a similar state originating genesis could be made for Al Qaeda--except it wasn't Iran that germinated the seed. I've made this argument here before and I'm pretty sure I am right about this. The problem is that my argument is harder to make. It's not as simple, or over-simplified, or as elegant as the neo-con hookah puffing Kristol and Ledeen's lead us to believe. It's not "soundbite-able." All non-state actors (right down to Amnesty International) exist in the gray areas--places in which the modern nation state has trouble enforcing its monopoly of force, or other critical functions. Violent non-state actors are geopolitical shadows who use violence to achieve political ends in ways nation states more often than not find immoral--or more importantly, delegitimizing. And in this there is a difficult paradox at work. Nation states, were they to use the methods of non-state actors (not limited to the violent ones, mind you), would often times find themselves with less legitimacy. Conversely, non-state actors, however, seem to gain legitimacy when the utilize the same methods. And thus, nation states are seriously hampered in their fight against non-state actors. Thus, for now, Bush, Blair, Olmert and others are content to blame Iran for the actions of Hamas and Hezbollah. Of course, it's easier to blame someone else for violence than investigate the sources of that violence--why study and learn when you can blame? And by focusing on the blame, as a short-term tactical political palliative, as opposed to the solution, we loose our ability to influence the outcome of events. No longer are we shaping history, as Ian said in another context, we are only watching it. Or, rather, as Arkin says,
One thing we did agree on last night was that our ulimate reaction to 9/11 was a giant failure of imagination. Sadly, we still find ourselves deficient in that category. I might have more on this later. Sean Paul Kelley July 18, 2006 - 2:58pm
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