Non-State Actors


Last night Col. Allard and I (and Jack to a lesser extent) went around and around and around on the issue of Hezbollah and Hamas. It was a really frustrating conversation because Col. Allard looks to Michael Ledeen when it comes to ideas about Iran and Israel and Palestine (again, to a lesser extent). The Ledeen school of thought is close to the Kristol-PNAC school of thought: there is little room for nuance and it's all Iran's fault.

As I have said before, in other venues, there is circumstantial evidence that Iran influenced Hezbollah's latest escalation. After all, Iran was about ready to be dropped under the bus by China and Russia. I'm not 100% sure what the connection between the nuclear enrichment negotiations are, but the timimg is too much of a coincidence.

What really burned me up last night was the insistence that Hezbollah is a puppet of Iran. They're not. They are a central part of the fabric of Lebanese society. Don't believe me, well then just look at this photo:

Who is it these two, obviously middle class guys, are watching on TV? And this is just one sample among many. Whether we like it or not Hezbollah is a part of Lebanese society and I seriously doubt that a two or three week Israeli air-campaign is going to change that reality. And if an air campaign is Israel's reaction after this escaltion, well, then Olmert is even more timid than I thought--and the Israelis need to get rid of him, fast.

But the most worrisome aspect of the argument which was had by all last night on the radio was the deep divide between the Colonel's view of international actors like Hezbollah, Hamas and Al Qaeda and my view. The Colonel, at least as I have heard him argue, sees these groups as tools of states. This is a decidedly pre-9/11, more Cold War, way of looking at how they are organized, what kind of friction they can create and how we should fight them.

I, however, see them much more differently. I see them as manipulators of states and infectors of states much more than as the tool of states. And it seems I am not alone. There is no question that Hezbollah was created by Iran, but a similar state originating genesis could be made for Al Qaeda--except it wasn't Iran that germinated the seed.

I've made this argument here before and I'm pretty sure I am right about this. The problem is that my argument is harder to make. It's not as simple, or over-simplified, or as elegant as the neo-con hookah puffing Kristol and Ledeen's lead us to believe. It's not "soundbite-able."

All non-state actors (right down to Amnesty International) exist in the gray areas--places in which the modern nation state has trouble enforcing its monopoly of force, or other critical functions. Violent non-state actors are geopolitical shadows who use violence to achieve political ends in ways nation states more often than not find immoral--or more importantly, delegitimizing. And in this there is a difficult paradox at work. Nation states, were they to use the methods of non-state actors (not limited to the violent ones, mind you), would often times find themselves with less legitimacy. Conversely, non-state actors, however, seem to gain legitimacy when the utilize the same methods. And thus, nation states are seriously hampered in their fight against non-state actors.

Thus, for now, Bush, Blair, Olmert and others are content to blame Iran for the actions of Hamas and Hezbollah. Of course, it's easier to blame someone else for violence than investigate the sources of that violence--why study and learn when you can blame? And by focusing on the blame, as a short-term tactical political palliative, as opposed to the solution, we loose our ability to influence the outcome of events. No longer are we shaping history, as Ian said in another context, we are only watching it.

Or, rather, as Arkin says,

"[B]y assuming that Iran or Syria or China are all-powerful and thus evil for NOT taking action, we make two mistakes: One, we absolve ourselves -- the United States -- of any responsibility for what unfolds in the world. . . Second though, we misread the dynamics of what happens in the halls of power, thus robbing ourselves of an understanding of the way the world really works, and thus any say in the future."

One thing we did agree on last night was that our ulimate reaction to 9/11 was a giant failure of imagination. Sadly, we still find ourselves deficient in that category.

I might have more on this later.


Sean Paul Kelley July 18, 2006 - 2:58pm

With all due respect you're halfway there Sean-Paul.

The problem is that you want to call Hezbollah a non-state actor.

Think of it as a continuum between, oh the Rotary club or a gang getting protection money and the US government.

A government is what a government does. I would argue that Hezbollah is almost as much of a state as Lebanon, maybe more since it has more of a monopoly of force. The fact that other States do not recognize it as such is the main thing that seperates it from States.

Run down the checklist:

monopoly of force within its area? Yes.
Defined borders? Almost.
Provides social services for its citizens? Yes.
Manages foreign affairs? Yes.
Manages law and order? Yes.
Has its own currency? No.

Score: 4.5/6

Anyone know what Hezbollah's finances are like? What percentage comes from foreign actors? What percentage comes from domestic donations?

I'm going to do a major theoretical article on this subject at some point probably not too far out.

Ian Welsh July 18, 2006 - 3:05pm

from the most disorganized but violent, to the almost state-like Hezbollah. You certainly can't compare Hezbollah with AQ, or Hamas or the Mahdi Army in Sadr City.

Bite Your Head Off

Sean Paul Kelley July 18, 2006 - 3:18pm

can use violence in ways states cannot.

Bite Your Head Off

Sean Paul Kelley July 18, 2006 - 3:19pm

Mmmm? Want to expand on that?

Ian Welsh July 18, 2006 - 3:28pm

...has a monopoly of force within its area. I see an organizations that has significant control of this sort in the region, but I don't see a monopoly. Simple question - given their beliefs and given what a hot button issue it is for many observers, why can't I find any mention of the imposition of Sharia law in southern Lebanon? If it existed I'd expect to trip over outraged references to it and if Hezbollah could get away with it (i.e., had a monopoly over the use of force) I'd sure expect them to have imposed it.

Are they something different than a typical guerilla movement, yes. Are they a potential proto-state, further along that continuum than most any other group, in my view, yes. I just don't think they're as far along that continuum as you describe above.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 18, 2006 - 3:50pm

Anyone else have military forces in their territory other than the occasional Israeli incursion? Could Lebanon forcibly disarm them? I'd call it a monopoly - no one else has it where they are. Are they as secure as they'd like? No.

I mean Canada has a monopoly of force in Canada, but if the US felt like it they could end it tomorrow. So, we wrote a bunch of laws to make them happy after 9/11 including acts that are probably worse than the Patriot Act.

Does that mean we aren't sovereign?

(I know some people who would argue yes.)

Being weak doesn't mean you can't have a monopoly of force over an area.

Ian Welsh July 18, 2006 - 4:10pm

...monopoly of force as a criterion for the state, that element of force which is applied to the populace making up the state seems to be by far the more important aspect. I'm most familiar with notions of the state from theories of state formation (as an archaeologist I specialized in a period where early state societies were forming), so I'm biased towards this interpretation of relative importance internal vs. external, but it doesn't seem inconsistent with what exposure I have had to the idea via poli sci.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 18, 2006 - 6:01pm

Ah, well such training as I have is socio and cultural anth - and specifically I was heavily influenced by Weber. I know almost no Poli Sci.

Ian Welsh July 18, 2006 - 7:27pm

some finance and econ.

Bite Your Head Off

Sean Paul Kelley July 18, 2006 - 7:54pm

...as something more than just a mute implement of Iranian policy - everything they do is not decided in Iran, and they do do things that Tehran wishes they would not. That said, neither is the reverse - Hizbullah pulling Tehran's strings unreservedly true - I don't care how good a manipulator or infector you are, in Hizbollah's position you do not get a state like Iran to release something like a C-802 to you (of which they have a very small number) without the state going along with it, and and without Iran having a real good idea what's going to happen with it. Hell, if one reads between the lines on the initial launches at Haifa (remember, those ones that Hizbollah denied - the ones that I wondered whether they indicated that we had another player running around, such as al-Qa`eda) and accepts that launch authority for those systems resides with Iran as is widely speculated, we may be looking at a situation where Iran initiated those releases and dragged Hizbollah further than they had intended to go at that time.

In my view you're properly highlighting a pervasive weakness in worldview, but lets be cautious in not going too far in pointing that inadequacy out. Yes, absolutely non-state actors are actors first and foremost, and that's something far, far too frequently overlooked by this administration, but they aren't co-equal with most state sponsors.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 18, 2006 - 3:23pm

I pretty much agree with this:

highlighting a pervasive weakness in worldview, but lets be cautious in not going too far in pointing that inadequacy out. Yes, absolutely non-state actors are actors first and foremost, and that's something far, far too frequently overlooked by this administration, but they aren't co-equal with most state sponsors.

Like I said to Ian, there is a range. Not all NSAs are created equal and not all of them are equal. Interesting thoughts about Iran dragging Hezbollah into this. Hadn't considered that.

Bite Your Head Off

Sean Paul Kelley July 18, 2006 - 3:28pm

Hezbollah's on the extreme end of NSA (a word I don't like) then. The only other groups that come close that I can think of off the top of my head are the Tamil Tigers (yeah, they have a navy) and the Islamic Courts Union.

The Taliban is working on it though.

Ian Welsh July 18, 2006 - 3:30pm

NSAs. It's rather bureaucratic.

Bite Your Head Off

Sean Paul Kelley July 18, 2006 - 3:33pm

...description of the relationship, and I can't say that I envy you the task - I just can't accept the notion that even Hezbollah manipulates and infects Iran more than Iran manipulates and infects Hezbollah.

On other topics this, in particular, strikes me as a fruitful area for exploration:

Nation states, were they to use the methods of non-state actors (not limited to the violent ones, mind you), would often times find themselves with less legitimacy. Conversely, non-state actors, however, seem to gain legitimacy when the utilize the same methods. And thus, nation states are seriously hampered in their fight against non-state actors."

This would be particularly fruitful were one to break away from the relentless focus on the kinetic side. That "not limited to the violent ones" that's crucial. There's a whole range of stuff that a nation state can't do on the non-kinetic side that a non-state actor can do. Just to riff for a second, I wonder if if the single biggest determinant is that a non-state actor can put up with multiple sources of authority and can be strengthened in spite of their existence and even use this as an asset, while a state can not (hence, for example the focus on a monopoly over force in the criteria that Ian highlighted above and I objected to).

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 18, 2006 - 4:04pm

Yes, there are multiple sources of authority, and force is not the only one. Force, however, is the ace card, and if you cannot defend yourself against force then you are always able to be trumped. But if I want to undermine a government, I don't necessarily start with force - I move into those places that it has abandoned in the social sphere. The Madrassas in Pakistan are a prime example.

Ian Welsh July 18, 2006 - 4:12pm

...are multiple sources for authority in the sense of multiple mechanisms, such as coercive force vs. I dunno, civil affairs. What I mean is that non-state actors are better able to handle there being multiple legitimators of authority, in the sense that Hizbollah can accept not having a monopoly in many spheres and still be viewed as being legitimate (and can steadily increase that legitimacy), while the Lebanese state can't accept not having a monopoly in most or all spheres without being de-legitimated.

Sort form: non-state actors can co-exist with states and maintain their legitimacy, however state actors can't co-exist with non-state actors and not have their legitimacy undermined.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 18, 2006 - 6:09pm

the thought that far but I will ponder that some this evening. Hmmmmm. . . an archaeologist? First time you've ever mentioned this. Please, do tell more. Bite Your Head Off

Sean Paul Kelley July 18, 2006 - 6:54pm

...times here and there, though I much more frequently refer to myself as a recovering academic (they have a twelve step program, but it's very intricate ;) ). The short form is that I specialised in lithic technology from the Neolithic and succeeding periods of the southern Levant.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 18, 2006 - 11:46pm

own position. I think you overstate how much credit I give to NSAs like Hezbollah and Al Qaeda when it comes to infecting and manipulating. I don't think anyone can really tell who has the upper hand in some of therse relationships, and who is using whom. I think, as with many other aspects of the whole NSAs debate it is about degree and not the black and white, monolithic type debate we've thus far had that I want to bring out.

That being said, I'm not sure if I ever said, "Hezbollah manipulates and infects Iran more than Iran manipulates and infects Hezbollah." I know very, very little about the relationship between the two and not nearly enough to make that judgement, which was certainly not my intent. I just think it is a lot more important to look at Hezbollah and others as not terrorists organizations and thus 'evil' as opposed to entities that have their own interests parochial and otherwise, to defend.

Bite Your Head Off

Sean Paul Kelley July 18, 2006 - 4:59pm

I see them as manipulators of states and infectors of states much more than as the tool of states."

to mean. If that's a poor read, then fair enough - I would only suggest that a reasonable person (at least I think I'm reasonable ;) ) could interpret it the way I did. Given the biases that you've in my view correctly pointed out, I think you need to guard particularly against folks interpreting you as simply reversing the commonly accepted power dynamic, because that's what their held bias would lead them to do. I'm really receptive to the notion of non-state actors as independents and the way that it was formulated in the quote above sets even my biases off.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 18, 2006 - 6:02pm

careful when I wrote it. And I will do as you suggest in the future. Good idea. Becauser you are right, people are likely to see the polar opposite in what I say, 1.) because I am not clear enough and 2.) their preconceptions encourage them to see it their way.


Bite Your Head Off

Sean Paul Kelley July 18, 2006 - 6:56pm

idea. I think one could write a book about it. Maybe it was you who suggested I include non violent organizations when I discussed NSAs, maybe someone else. But it was a good suggestion that led towards more thought. It's a damned interesting area of IR to study, were one so inclined.

Bite Your Head Off

Sean Paul Kelley July 18, 2006 - 5:01pm

that Lebanon is Canada. Let's say the United States invades and bombs the infrastructure killing mostly civilians. The UN is blocked from calling for a ceasefire and the bombs continue to reign down. Let's go one step further and pretend the FLQ, or an organization like it in Quebec, captured two of America's soldiers. Let's also pretend the Quebec government supports the FLQ actions.

The Prime Minister calls in the army to rid Quebec of the FLQ, but in this instance, unlike what happened in reality, isn't successful.

Does that mean the United States can continue the bombing 'til we are successful in riding ourselves of this malignant organization within one of the provinces?

Canada does in many ways resemble Lebanon. It has a small population that isn't able to defend itself. One of the factors why it can't defend itself is we would be stopped by the United States if we attempted to acquire nuclear weapons. She gets to have all of them and we don't get to have any becuase she's just much, much bigger than us. She has taken it upon herself to protect us. It's citizenry blame us because we can't protect ourselves. We're caught in a catch 22 situation. Can't appeal to Russian (insert Iran), because then we would be blamed for provoking the United States into hositilities with their recognized long-time enemy. Even if we drafted every man and woman over the age of 15, our military defences still wouldn't big enough for the task especially if we had to deploy them over a 4,000 mile strip. Oh crap, I forgot, that's only the land...they'd defeat us by water or by air!

What do we do? We have no power, a tiny military, and no way to adequately defend ourselves.

The anology between us and Lebanon does have some parallels, but I'm sure you'll find the weakness in it. Do we just all die, pleading helplessly that someone needs to step in and help us? I do realize we're a member of NATO and other countries are supposed to come to our rescue when we're attacked, but given the country that is bombing us is the United States, would any other NATO country (or for that matter, any other non NATO country) be stupid enough to intervene and help us survive?

Doesn't Canada survive despite military force? Isn't it civilization and laws that protect us rather than military factors? Why can't Lebanon be accorded a like civilized stature? That really is an awkwardly worded conclusion...someone will have to word it better.

canuck July 18, 2006 - 6:59pm

...law in this situation:

Does that mean the United States can continue the bombing 'til we are successful in riding ourselves of this malignant organization within one of the provinces?

...in your quote above (i.e., when a "host" country can't police its own territory and keep a group from using it as a springboard for attacks on a third party), is that the third party is allowed to attack the group doing the attacks. However, I don't believe that they're allowed to attack the host country directly, and have to be pretty circumspect about what assets they hit there. That said, if something belonging to the host country confers a substantive military advantage to the group attacking from the host country, it becomes a valid target.

There's quite a decent Q and A piece from Human Rights Watch here that covers this more authoritatively.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 18, 2006 - 11:58pm

Our Little Cluster*@k Gets Worse



It's not as if the war in Iraq couldn't get much worse in a geopolitical sense, right?

Turkish officials signaled Tuesday they are prepared to send the army into northern
Iraq if U.S. and Iraqi forces do not take steps to combat Turkish Kurdish guerrillas there — a move that could put Turkey on a collision course with the United States.

xlink

That said, if something belonging to the host country confers a substantive military advantage to the group attacking from the host country, it becomes a valid target.

I wonder what the Turks might think is covered by that?

Escher Sketch July 20, 2006 - 2:35pm

international laws are meant for the protection of the civilian population.

It is illegal under international humanitarian law, to use military force to squeeze the civilian population, to enhance its suffering, or to undermine its morale, regardless of the ultimate purpose, it is illegal to pressure them. (That would apply if a country isn’t militarily capable of restraining factions within its population.)

These two, gave me pause:

Hamas: When someone becomes a captive, using them as a hostage is a violation because they cease to be a combatant.

That would apply to Israel as well. Didn’t Israel capture 21 of the elected Gazian government officials--they didn't cease to be combatants--they never were classified as combatants. Was the purpose of these civilian prisoners to use them as barter for the captives Hamas holds? Or does Israel plan to kill them—there have been rumours that is their intent? Israel has been known to assassinate Palestianian leaders.

Hezbollah can target military objectives, but it must take care that civilians are not harmed.

Israel’s bombing of civilian infrastructure has killed a disportionate number of civilians and possibly prevents or interferes with foreign nationals being evacuated.

-----

Thanks for the link. I didn't see in the link where it described combatants who aren't equally matched militarily (degree of weapon technology and destructive power, or in number superiority) and how those factors affect the safety of civilians.

canuck July 19, 2006 - 3:41am

My understanding is that this type of assymetry:

I didn't see in the link where it described combatants who aren't equally matched militarily (degree of weapon technology and destructive power, or in number superiority) and how those factors affect the safety of civilians."

...has no significant relevance, other than the fact that force used should be proportionate (e.g., if one is attacked with conventional arms, one shouldn't nuke the attacking nation to glass, to pick a silly example). The safety of civilians is considered to be highly important at all times, and all reasonable steps are to be taken to safeguard them.

In this case, I don't think that one would have a very good case that the force used is disproportionate - there may be better cases to be made that targetting some of the things that the IAF has constitute a violations.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 19, 2006 - 9:49am

and tehnology would be factors. But when you consider one of the combatants has homemade devices that #1) don't have the destructive force as more sophisticated missiles. #2) doesn't have an equal quantity of them, thereby not having the ability to inflict as many casualties (see proportionality below). A greater responsibility when posessing more advanced technology does mean there has to be a corresponding 'higher degree of awareness' of their destructive force on the part of the better equipped combatant. Let me clarify what I put in single quotation marks.

As weapons become more advanced, death becomes sanitized. It's much harder for combantants with cruder weapons to inflict death, because they see the faces of the combatants/civilians they kill which acts as a deterrent and those bombs are usually restricted to relatively small areas (but not always). In the case of suicide bombers, they blow themselves up along with their victims. Missiles and aircraft-dropped bombs are remote from the pain and suffering they cause often to larger perimeters. Even in the case of homemade (cruder) missiles, there is more awareness of their destructive force, because the combatants themselves got the components and assembled them; unlike missiles and bombs dropped from airplanes that are made remotely in factories.

A more extreme example is bows and arrows against guns. The combatant who has the luxury of owning a gun has to take greater care that he/she doesn't abuse his superiority against his lesser equipped rival, because proportionality is part of the Geneva conventions that apply to combatants and their treatment of nonconbatants.

In conclusion, although superiority and technology of combatants isn't specifically stated, it does logically follow that they do become factors.

canuck July 19, 2006 - 12:07pm

In the analogy that you cite:

A more extreme example is bows and arrows against guns. The combatant who has the luxury of owning a gun has to take greater care that he/she doesn't abuse his superiority against his lesser equipped rival, because proportionality is part of the Geneva conventions that apply to combatants and their treatment of nonconbatants."

...if I as a nation am attacked by a group of guys with bows and arrows, if they're attempting to kill my soldiers or citizens, I can gun them down with a rifle at my leisure. That is proportional use of force - a lethal threat met with proportional response, even if it is technologically more sophisticated and manifestly more effecient and effective in its lethality. What wouldn't be proportional would be to wipe out a big chunk of the surrounding terrain, destroy infrastructure not associated with the conflict and kill many civilians.

As one of the CF guys that I pay attention to opinion-wise once said: If you ever find yourself in a fair fight with a tenacious, equally well-equipped adversary possessing a tactical situation as good as your own, be very careful what you do because thusfar your tactics have sucked, very badly.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave July 19, 2006 - 12:37pm

As one of the CF guys that I pay attention to opinion-wise once said: If you ever find yourself in a fair fight with a tenacious, equally well-equipped adversary possessing a tactical situation as good as your own, be very careful what you do because thusfar your tactics have sucked, very badly.

I believe getting into an equal tactical situation means your strategy has failed, actually. ;)

The idea is to have won the battle before the battle is fought. Easier said than done, as I'ms ure you know better than I, but still a rule to remember.

The other thing to remember is that the other guy may have different criteria for victory or loss than you do.

Ian Welsh July 19, 2006 - 11:58pm

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.