... this:

Hezbollah runs southern Lebanon, right down to curbside garbage collection, toys for tots, and civil defense. Hezbollah has proven for decades that they can withstand and wait out whatever the Israelis send their way. It's a classic guerilla setup -- the Israelis have to win, while Hezbollah merely needs to not lose.

Olmert is in a closed box as long as he's in Lebanon, and the longer he's in there the more Israel loses, on the ground and internationally. He can occupy all of Lebanon and still be nowhere.

Israel is merely back at that old guerilla game of looking for enemies hiding in plain sight. And yet, unpleasant as it is all around, the situation still has brakes, if only because pushing a boulder uphill means it isn't likely to run away on you. If Israel stays in Lebanon until 2525, the headlines won't vary much throughout that time.

But -- if Olmert hits Syria, for its support of Lebanon, Iran will be in the open as the last bulwark and champion of the Muslim world. Iran is allied with Syria, and bound to come to Syria's defense, just as surely as we are bound to defend Israel.

This is how world wars start.

So, Mister Olmert has the entire option, the entire choice of taking America into a war that has a strong chance of going nuclear. It's his choice. Our Congress and our President will not make the choice, Mister Olmert will.

All he has to do is bomb Syria, and the US will be in there on Israel's side, while Iran will be busy shutting down the Middle East as a reliable or affordable petroleum source.

Neither Europe, China, Japan nor India will have the option of staying out of it even overnight, not if they want to some semblance of their economies functioning on the following Monday morning.

Russia can coast a little bit, but certainly will not come in on America's side. They do not see the Middle East or Caspian Basin as our 51st State.

So -- here be the shit, and there be the fan. If Mister Olmert screws the pooch, it won't be possible to unscrew it, boys.

Just raise the black flag, and the devil take the hindmost.

(Now, I'm not so sure that Iran will come in that strong. But it's at least a possibility, and if so Olmert is juggling nitro -Ian)

The Middle East may now be evidence of what happens when the world’s sole superpower abandons any semblance of detente. Read an analysis on how Dick Cheney sees the current U.S. foreign policy as the culmination of three decades of strategic efforts to position America as the sole occupant at the top of the power pyramid…here:

www.thoughttheater.com

I'm on par with Nelson's thoughts this evening, and have been thinking about a mix between Archduke Franz Ferdinand and the 1982 war off and on since the Gaza beach blast and especially after Israeli jets strafed Assad's palace late last month.

The rumor, and I admit it's a rumor, that Olmert showed Condi the back of his hand, combined with Nelson's assertion of a sudden moment of "great power politics" shows the fulcrum upon which this situation stands. There is a real possibility of it either turning this massive escalation into something extremely positive in every sphere, DPRK, Israel and Iran included, or of this turning into a Greater Middle East War and making me pay $4 a gallon at the pump while Kim Jong Il shoots off more rockets. Too bad I'm worried about the second scenario since Bush has lost so much sway in the international sphere.

However, as to Iran, I think he's a bit off base. There's clear motive and political sway from Iran. It's a great distraction game, and sources are talking about Iran giving orders to Hezbollah, as a clear chess move for the G8, who otherwise would (and may still) have Iran's nuclear ambitions as the issue on the table most capable of positive developments, certainly more than the Russia/China impasse on NK that sparked some truly tough questioning of Bolton.

"Round and round, round we go." - Tupac

"Look at the graphic again, closely. The Israelis engineered this escalation. "

"read the chronology"

You might be correct SP, but basing your argument on a selective chronology from WaPo seems a bit shakey.

"The whole reason we have this outrageous and unneccesary escalation of violence between Israel, Lebanon and the Palestinians is because of Olmert's mistake."

OK - If you say so...