If the race between John Courage and incumbent Lamar Smith is any indication for the Republicans nationwide, then they are in deep trouble.

I just learned that a poll commissioned in the district has reported back amazing results:

In a poll conducted by Lake Research Partners of 500 likely general election voters June 18-21, 2006, only 31% said that they would vote to re-elect Lamar Smith.

The margin of error is + or - 4.4%. And as a campaign worker said to me:

This is an anemic number for an incumbent, as that number should on average be closer to 45-55%. The voters want change, and we’ve got a man of the people that is a teacher and a veteran who wants to be their representative.

I grilled a source with intimate knowledge of the poll about the results. I asked if the questions that were asked in the poll could skew the results? Short answr: hardly. Long answer: they oversampled Republicans in the polling process, so the real numbers may be even worse for Lamar Smith.

The crosstabs should be available tomorrow when I will have more. In the meantime, go give Mr. Courage some cash, and and give Courage a triple crown by voting him first in MapChangers, momentum, like this, going into the summer is huge for any campaign.

More on John, here.