Iran Trip Update


I was up very late last night trying to finagle a visa to Iran. I doubt I'll be very productive today. The trip's on hold for at least another week. If the visa comes in by Wednesday then the earliest we'll leave is May 3 or 4. That's all I have at this point. Other than a huge case of the let-downs.

~

Actually, since I've got Iran on the brain, here's a question. Say you bomb Iran. What next? What's the end game? We cannot occupy the whole country ~ it's physically impossible.

What's the end-game? Or better yet, what's the political goal we're seeking at the end of armed conflict? (Insert obligatory Clausewitzian reference here.) And is it achievable? Remember, the 'enemy' has a say in this; more than any other potential armed conflict the US has faced in the post-Cold War era, this 'enemy' has a vote.

So, what happens? Is anyone in our government thinking about that?!? Let's have that debate.

Chew on this graf:

If the US is serious about going to war against Iran -- and make no mistake, no matter how limited and surgical, that's what this "nuclear pre-emption" would amount to -- it had better prepare for a long war that MUST end with the overthrow of the Tehran regime and long-term occupation and re-secularization of Iran IN ADDITION TO having to wipe out the very substantial pro-Iranian Shi'ite infrastructures in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. Any other grand strategy will absolutely fail, because the Iranians will not stop fighting until we withdraw AND have paid a satisfactory eye-for-an-eye penalty for our act of aggression.

And then go read James Fallows at the Atlantic Online.

Again, what's the end game?


Sean Paul Kelley April 11, 2006 - 12:06pm

Obviously, you were not paying attention. The reason that 'we' weren't greeted with flowers in Baghdad is because they were saving them for the liberation of Iran, their much admired brothers-who-need-liberating-so-as-to-have-the-sweets-of-democracy there too.

The bombing is the end game. There will be no repercussions except a humiliated Iranian clergy who will be all Jimmy Swaggart apologizing, and crying as they leave office. No microphones required, we will hear the shouts of joy from everywhere, "Yes; we have democracy, just like our Palestinian brothers!"

The US will beg GWB to stay for a 3rd term, we will feel all so very 9-11-changes-everything-protected.

siegestate April 11, 2006 - 12:52pm

I saw Richard Pearle on the News Hour last night and while he was saying that the reports that there are serious plans to bomb Iraq, no sorry check that, Iran and that a diplomatic solution is being sought for the Iraqi, oops sorry my mistake again, Iranian problem, that there is a strong democracy movement in Iraq, damn it I mean Iran and given the slightest support/incentive they will overthrow the mad mullahs and usher in a golden age of utopian democracy. Well, he didn’t use those exact terms, he didn’t even mention rose petals or flowers of any sort, but you get the drift. Any reporting otherwise is just the irresponsible members of the press, i.e. Sy Hersh, at it again. Richard Pearle did single out Sy Hersh saying he has been wrong in almost all his reporting.

Karl der Grosse April 11, 2006 - 1:25pm

It's human nature that certain threats, although very real, are underappreciated. Ergo, there often needs to be a 'credible threat' in order to spur action. If the current administration weren't such a bunch of loons (no offense intended to the Canadian dollar, or the avian) then this sort of posturing would really be a lot less disconcerting.

NateTG April 11, 2006 - 2:18pm

few times myself.


Love Firefox, Hate IE

Sean Paul Kelley April 11, 2006 - 2:48pm

modern warfare is a business, pure & simple. as long as power is projected far enough to cause minimal risk to a local population, it is a convienent way to generate huge expenditures that don't have to be justified or controled. just visit
http://iraqrevenuewatch.org/ to see the latest manifestation of this approach.

this 20th-century model of gunboat diplomacy is increasingly made obsolete in the era of the suicide bomber. but, like most historic trends, it takes institutions a long time to come around to new realities. in the meantime, we are all combatants.

ltgbone April 12, 2006 - 11:17am

...and you're still planning a trip to Iran?

Sean-Paul, I have to think that your sense of self-preservation is giving you second thoughts on this adventure. Iran may be full of nice, hospitable people, but today its government is run by an Islamist fanatic. Any American touring Iran during this tense period might be accused of being a spy and summarily imprisoned, at best.

It won't matter if your Iranian friends vouch for you; the Iranian government will be looking for people to make examples of. They'll grab you off the street, hustle you away to some nasty prison, then pull a North Korea on you and make you read stupid video confessions from a script, and you'll try to blink T.O.R.T.U.R.E. with your eyelids, but you won't be able to remember Morse code, so it will just look goofy.

Then you'll rot in an Iranian prison until another Republican presidential candidate makes a secret deal to sell weapons to Iran, and you'll owe your freedom to the military industrialists who run the fucking GOP.

Is that what you want??

"Death before being dishonored any more." - Col. Ted Westhusing

Jimbo92107 April 13, 2006 - 12:45am

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