But not that they won't lose seats but will retain control of congress. That's what I mean by they will call it a win. Control is what the game is all about. Long term trends are horrible for republicans.

they won't lose the House? That's what you call a win? If I recall correctly, Bush in 2002 actually increased Republican seats. That's the definition of a win. Anything other than staying at par or within one or two seats will be a loss, period. Plain and simple. But you go ahead and spin this as you like.

^{"Sí che dal fatto il dir non sia diverso."}

-Dante

The meme is a republican route. That is my counter. If I recall 2002 had the backwind of 9/11. Without that dem takeover would have started then. Keeping both chambers and seeing the dem caucus move left for me is win win.

So you're not willing to call a repub takeover of the house?

I'm actually pretty clear in the first paragrah

When all the dirt came out on Ollie North, someone said that the problem with North was he worked 18 hour days. Had he worked less, there would have been less problems.

The enthusiasm of Republicans is fine. But they do get carried away, far away. We'll have all sorts of wacky stuff from them and their ever so strange set of primary winners. All that will do is give the Democrats more members from states where the winners will be Democrats-in-name-only (DINOs).

But here's the real danger. In Virginia, Obama got 1.9 million votes in 2008. A really lousy candidate for Governor in 2009, a DINO, got 0.8 million votes. Over a million voters stayed home in just a year. They'd seen nothing for the people from DC and a DINO candidate. That's where your enthusiasm measure might have an impact. Of course, the Democrats may also get enthused through the byproducts (toxic proposals) resulting from the Republican enthusiasm.

Citizens are screwed in any event.

Followed the thread. Nice to know I'm a muckity muck:)

edited after the fact :) One thing is it is customary and normal for the presidential party to lose seats in the off year, whether it will be the average18/20? or will it be more.

No it was not. That opening was original and as intended. Holding congress is the only game in town. Why care otherwise? And the senate is far safer than the house. I am responding to the enthusiasm gap crap which is the only thing repubs have right now.

from above it sounded like you were going to clarify and I thought maybe trob came to the discussion after a possible change in text.

Obama pulled the trick of actually getting the ever-illusive "youth vote" to come out in large numbers.

(Anecdotal evidence: my precinct includes the uni dorms and significant college rental neighborhoods. I have never had to wait in line to vote before '08...now, could be that we had a medical marijuana referendum - and dope beat hope in the state by like 13 points - but...there were a lot of young people.)

Talk to them now. Turns out that Obama is just another politician, and he's not going to be able to pull the "hope and change" shtick again because he's no longer a blank slate on which to project personal ideas.

And mid-terms have much lower turnout than presidential cycles to begin with. The youth vote will have better things to do than go out of its way to support the Democratic Party.

The Dems only hope is that the GOP nominates nothing but batshit crazies so that they can "win" by default, but that's not strategy.

Youth are overwhelmingly pro Obama, in fact it trends in a decline almost totally explained by age, with some variation based on education. The enthusiasm is going down, but that goes without saying. The last election was pretty damn exciting.

The group with decline in support are the older left wing of the party and also older independents.

That the young stay home for mid terms is pretty much a given, but the last several elections have shown how formidable the democrat voter is now. Also polling is getting to be near worthless because of the rise of the cell phone and inability to do good cell phone polling. I don't have a land line anymore, and it would today be virtually impossible to poll my views. Isn't it something like 65% of folks under 30 lack a land line now?

It goes without saying that once you are elected you cease to be an 'outsider' but the insider/outsider meme is entirely a MSM mythology. So much of the day to day politics is one talking head talking to another talking head, and in this respect the youth vote also do not get their news from Teee Veeee. I can't watch a news show for more than about two minutes now, I'd rather watch paint dry. So the consensus in this election cycle is so completely wrong, and it will be fun to watch the hand wringing come Christmas.

You mean Democrats are going to stay home?

eom

The 2010 is a mid-term election not a special election. The GOTV is completely different.

Every one of those races were the result of BAD candidates.

Creigh Deeds ran an awful campaign, even saying he'd reject a healthcare public option. As a follow-up poll confirmed, he lost major support as a result.

Jon Corzine's ratings were disastrous from the day he began running, and his Wall Street background combined with the massive indictments of so many New Jersey Democrats to offer the worst possible symbolism.

They didn't deserve to win.

Coakley's campaign was an embarrassment. They did not choose the obviously great senate candidate in that race. She basically took November and December off.

Fact is within Congress Democrats have WON nearly every special election since 2008, and they have won in areas they should not have won. If the candidate is good and engaged, and the GOTV in place they have won every time.

this is a 2010 mid term election that is well funded, and Obama plays elections like basketball, grabbing the ball just when its time to go in. This election will be about the last 30 days.

to support your statements of upcoming youth participation? I think the guy who wrote that has the credential to guess that hope and change meme is not going to work this time and that the youth are not seemingly all that engaged.

Here's some:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/06/dems-up-on-generic-ballot.html

http://abcnews.go.com/images/GMA/Frustration_2010-style.pdf

http://modeledbehavior.com/2010/06/24/long-term-greedy-politics-edition/

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/emerging-republican-minority.html

I think my point though is the difficulty of actually polling young people. But demographics will trounce all. I mean, is there any demographic that the republican party has except old whites??

But hey we'll know in November. I'll pop the cork then.

From my quick scan it points to a pissed off, depressed apathetic voting base and nothing on the youth. November will tell.