The Year in Review: The planet


The Independent, Michael McCarthy, December 28

The sheer scale of what happened hasn't sunk in, it probably hasn't sunk in at all, with most people. They're not looking back on 2007 and talking about it, in the office, in pubs or over dinner. Listen to them: they're talking about Brown taking over from Blair, or David Cameron's prospects, or England failing to qualify for the European football championships. Or they're talking about getting and spending, or love and hate, as they always have. But what happened in September dwarfs all that.

You might compare it, in its implications, to Hitler marching his troops into the previously demilitarised Rhineland, in March 1936 – the clearest possible sign that the world was in for serious trouble. Some people understood the potential consequences of Hitler's move at once, but the world as a whole carried on with business as usual, until three years later the storm burst upon it. And so it seems to be with the ice.

On Sunday 16 September 2007, the sea ice covering the Arctic ocean melted back to a record low point. It has always melted back in the summer, but in recent years it has retreated further and further, to new lows, strongly suggesting the influence of climate change. The 2007 retreat, however, shattered the previous record, set only two years earlier, by a quite colossal amount, an amount so enormous as to be scarcely credible. It exceeded the September 2005 low point by another 22 per cent – an area of 1.2 million square kilometres, or more than 385,000 square miles. This represents an extra area of ice five times the size of the United Kingdom. Gone in a single summer. If you consider that and you don't think the world is rapidly warming up, what do you need to convince you?

This summer's Arctic melting astonished scientists around the world, and sent a chill down the backs of those who saw the implications. As the head of the Canadian Ice Service said, it wasn't predicted in any supercomputer-generated climate change scenario. The scale was entirely unexpected. It was not just the clearest signal yet that global warming is taking hold; it was an ominous indication that the warming process is proceeding far, far faster than anyone considered possible even five years ago, and that its catastrophic consequences may be upon us much sooner than we have hitherto imagined.

[...]

Chief among the critics was America's leading climate scientist, James Hansen of NASA, who published an apocalyptic paper in May suggesting that by the end of the century the world would face a sea-level rise not of 59 centimetres, as the IPCC suggested, but of several metres.

This was because the land-based ice-sheets were melting in a "non-linear" way – not just melting at a steady rate, but dynamically breaking up as well, and this process was not properly represented in the supercomputer climate models used to make global-warming predictions.

By the time the final synthesis of all three sections of AR4 was published in Spain in November, the authors had partially accepted this criticism, and indicated that sea-level rise might be more than they had first calculated.

Just as important was the fact that the report had been signed off by every government in the world, including that of the US, whose officials said that the basic scientific case for climate change had now been accepted. That did not mean that the world community was united in what to do about it. On the contrary, the meeting of the UN convention on climate change in Bali this month showed that there were still wide divisions between nations about how to go forward and tackle the most critical problem human society has ever faced. The world has two years at most to get its act together to build a new international climate treaty to replace the Kyoto protocol, which is coming to an end.

But there is no longer any excuse for inaction, as people can clearly see the future, and it is dire. They used to see it in the stars, in crystal balls, in the entrails of sacrificed birds, even in tea leaves.

Our generation is seeing it in the ice.


Raja January 6, 2008 - 3:32pm
( categories: Analysis | Environment )

The Independent, By Michael McCarthy, January 7

Britain's bird of the year in 2008 may turn out to be a beautiful white heron whose original home was Africa.

The cattle egret, which has been spreading steadily northwards through Europe, perhaps because of climate change, is thought to be on the point of colonising southern England.

This winter, so many of the birds are present along coasts in the south and west that breeding is thought likely to happen soon, not least because the process appears to be a replica of colonisation by a closely related species, the little egret, in the mid-1990s.

From being a rare vagrant which delighted birdwatchers, little egrets began to arrive in substantial numbers on the south coast, and in 1996 a pair bred for the first time in Britain in the heronry on Brownsea Island in Poole harbour, Dorset. Their population has doubled every year since and Britain now has several hundred breeding pairs. Birdwatchers and ornithologists alike think the cattle egret may be about to do the same.


"Vanity, Vanity, all is Vanity."

Raja January 7, 2008 - 9:45am

Boston Globe, By Martin Finucane, January 9

A group of Russians landed unnoticed on the Massachusetts coast recently, saying little as they scouted the area for a possible occupation. But with their bright pink legs and distinctive wing markings, the slaty-backed gulls could not maintain their cover.

The local bird-watching community is atwitter over the first known Massachusetts sightings of the species, which usually nests on Russia's frigid eastern coast and winters in northeast Asia.

David Sibley of Concord was the first to spot the gull, at Jodrey State Fish Pier in Gloucester on Dec. 23.

"It's always a thrill to find a bird that rare," said Sibley, an artist who has written several authoritative bird books. "There's something really special about that feeling of discovery."

Globe Graphic


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Raja January 9, 2008 - 9:42am

New York Times, By Andrew C. Revkin, January 8

The ancient frozen dome cloaking Greenland is so vast that pilots have crashed into what they thought was a cloud bank spanning the horizon. Flying over it, you can scarcely imagine that this ice could erode fast enough to dangerously raise sea levels any time soon.

Along the flanks in spring and summer, however, the picture is very different. For a lengthening string of warm years, a lacework of blue lakes and rivulets of meltwater have been spreading ever higher on the ice cap. The melting surface darkens, absorbing up to four times as much energy from the sun as unmelted snow, which reflects sunlight. Natural drainpipes called moulins carry water from the surface into the depths, in some places reaching bedrock. The process slightly, but measurably, lubricates and accelerates the grinding passage of ice toward the sea.

Most important, many glaciologists say, is the breakup of huge semisubmerged clots of ice where some large Greenland glaciers, particularly along the west coast, squeeze through fjords as they meet the warming ocean. As these passages have cleared, this has sharply accelerated the flow of many of these creeping, corrugated, frozen rivers.

All of these changes have many glaciologists “a little nervous these days — shell-shocked,” said Ted Scambos, the lead scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., and a veteran of both Greenland and Antarctic studies.

Some fear that the rise in seas in a warming world could be much greater than the upper estimate of about two feet in this century made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last year. (Seas rose less than a foot in the 20th century.) The panel’s assessment did not include factors known to contribute to ice flows but not understood well enough to estimate with confidence. All the panel could say was, “Larger values cannot be excluded.”

[...]

“It is too early to reassure that all will stabilize, and similarly there is no way to predict a catastrophic collapse,” Dr. Rignot said. “But things are definitely far more serious than anyone would have thought five years ago.”


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Raja January 8, 2008 - 8:59am

The Christian Science Monitor, By Brad Knickerbocker, January 8

Lease sales could produce 15 billion barrels of oil, but environmentalists say drilling would threaten already melting habitat.

A controversial proposal to extract vast supplies of oil and gas from Alaska's outer continental shelf pits America's energy needs against environmental protection. Unlike similar clashes in the past, there's a complicating factor this time: global warming.

The US Interior Department's Minerals Management Service (MMS) is offering the sale of oil and gas leases covering nearly 46,000 square miles in the Chukchi Sea off the northwest coast of Alaska.

Initial geological studies indicate that the area, roughly the size of Pennsylvania, has the potential to produce 15 billion barrels of recoverable oil and 77 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Together with the potential energy development from lease sales offered recently in the nearby Beaufort Sea, that's enough to fuel 25 million cars and heat 46 million homes for 30 years.

"It's a significant slice of the energy we consume, based upon current rates," says Richard Ranger, an adviser with the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group. "The potential, we would argue, is of strategic significance."


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Raja January 8, 2008 - 9:45am

BBC, January 8

Producing biofuels from a fast-growing grass delivers vast savings of carbon dioxide emissions compared with petrol, a large-scale study has suggested.

A team of US researchers also found that switchgrass-derived ethanol produced 540% more energy than was required to manufacture the fuel.

One acre (0.4 hectares) of the grassland could, on average, deliver 320 barrels of bioethanol, they added.

Their paper appears in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The five-year study, involving 10 farms ranging in size from three to nine hectares, was described as the largest study of its kind by the paper's authors.


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Raja January 8, 2008 - 10:00am

Associated Press, January 8

WHEATLAND, WIS. — A freak cluster of tornadoes raked across an unseasonably warm Midwest, demolishing houses, knocking railroad cars off their tracks and even temporarily halting justice in one courthouse.

Record temperatures were reported across much of the country Monday, and storms continued to pummel the nation's midsection as darkness fell. More warmth and storms were in store for Tuesday.

Tornadoes were reported or suspected Monday in southwest Missouri, southeastern Wisconsin, Arkansas, Illinois and Oklahoma. Two people were killed in Missouri.

Eleven houses in Wisconsin's Kenosha County were destroyed, five others had heavy damage and four had moderate damage, authorities said. About 13 people were injured, none seriously.

“I have never seen damage like this in the summertime when we have potential for tornadoes,” Sheriff David Beth said. “To see something like this in January is mind-boggling to me. This is just unimaginable to me.”


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Raja January 8, 2008 - 10:04am

Chicago Tribune, By Tara Malone, Andrew L. Wong & Jeff Long, January 8

An area flood warning was put into effect this morning after a heavy rainstorm overnight, part of an unusual January weather system that brought tornadoes and high winds that destroyed buildings, left scores of families homeless and derailed freight cars.

With the rain expected to continue throughout the day, the National Weather Service Service predicted up to 5 inches of new precipitation by noon across northern Illinois, northwest Indiana and southern Wisconsin.

That system will bring with it the high likelihood of flooding rivers and streams, the weather service said. Lighter rain was expected this afternoon.

On Monday, funnel clouds came as the downside to record-breaking warm weather across the area. With the date's previous high of 59 degrees shattered by 9:56 a.m. at O'Hare International Airport, winter-weary Chicagoans shed their heavy coats and ventured outside, when temperatures hit a high of 65.

A tornado watch went into effect at 2:35 p.m. and winds reached dangerous speeds. Lightning ended bike rides and playground visits in the city and suburbs, while darkening skies in parts of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin introduced a storm so severe it derailed a freight train, forced an elementary school's lockdown and sent people fleeing for cover.

There were no reported fatalities or serious injuries.


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Raja January 8, 2008 - 10:11am

BBC, January 9

At least 28 people are reported to have died in Iran's heaviest snowfall in recent years.

Eight people froze to death as severe blizzards left 40,000 people stranded in their cars, authorities said.

Although most have now been rescued, another 20 people are reported to have died in car crashes caused by the weather, officials said.

Tehran has declared two days of national holiday, urging people to stay at home to avoid the bitter cold.

The temperature has been down as low as -24 degrees Celsius, and for the first time in living memory there has been snow in the country's southern deserts.


"Vanity, Vanity, all is Vanity."

Raja January 9, 2008 - 10:09am

The Guardian, By James Randerson, January 10

Caribbean coral reefs have suffered significant damage from over-fishing and run-off from agricultural land, according to a study of 322 sites across 13 countries. The study provides compelling evidence that proximity to a large human population spells bad news for the survival of reefs.

"It is well acknowledged that coral reefs are declining worldwide but the driving forces remain hotly debated," said author Camilo Mora at Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada. "In the Caribbean alone, these losses are endangering a large number of species, from corals to sharks."

He estimates that the reefs provide $4bn in so-called ecosystem services - quantifiable benefits in terms of fishing, tourism and protecting the coast from storms.

Numerous threats to coral reef ecosystems have been identified previously including over-fishing, rising sea temperatures due to climate change, and pollution, but his team aimed to go beyond local effects and identify significant factors at a regional level. The study used data on the health of corals, fish and large algae such as seaweed from 322 sites between 1999 and 2001.


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Raja January 10, 2008 - 9:18am

Guardian Unlimited, James Orr, Andrew Sparrow & agencies, January 10

A new generation of nuclear power stations was today given the go-ahead by the government.

The business secretary, John Hutton, told MPs that new stations must be built to ensure future security of supply and help produce a balanced energy mix.

"New nuclear power should have a role to play in the future energy mix," Hutton said.

His announcement, ending years of uncertainty over Labour's energy plans, will delight the pro-nuclear lobby, which has urged ministers to replace the UK's current nuclear power stations, most of which are due to close by 2023.


"Vanity, Vanity, all is Vanity."

Raja January 10, 2008 - 9:19am

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