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The Year in Review: The planetThe Independent, Michael McCarthy, December 28 The sheer scale of what happened hasn't sunk in, it probably hasn't sunk in at all, with most people. They're not looking back on 2007 and talking about it, in the office, in pubs or over dinner. Listen to them: they're talking about Brown taking over from Blair, or David Cameron's prospects, or England failing to qualify for the European football championships. Or they're talking about getting and spending, or love and hate, as they always have. But what happened in September dwarfs all that. You might compare it, in its implications, to Hitler marching his troops into the previously demilitarised Rhineland, in March 1936 – the clearest possible sign that the world was in for serious trouble. Some people understood the potential consequences of Hitler's move at once, but the world as a whole carried on with business as usual, until three years later the storm burst upon it. And so it seems to be with the ice. On Sunday 16 September 2007, the sea ice covering the Arctic ocean melted back to a record low point. It has always melted back in the summer, but in recent years it has retreated further and further, to new lows, strongly suggesting the influence of climate change. The 2007 retreat, however, shattered the previous record, set only two years earlier, by a quite colossal amount, an amount so enormous as to be scarcely credible. It exceeded the September 2005 low point by another 22 per cent – an area of 1.2 million square kilometres, or more than 385,000 square miles. This represents an extra area of ice five times the size of the United Kingdom. Gone in a single summer. If you consider that and you don't think the world is rapidly warming up, what do you need to convince you? This summer's Arctic melting astonished scientists around the world, and sent a chill down the backs of those who saw the implications. As the head of the Canadian Ice Service said, it wasn't predicted in any supercomputer-generated climate change scenario. The scale was entirely unexpected. It was not just the clearest signal yet that global warming is taking hold; it was an ominous indication that the warming process is proceeding far, far faster than anyone considered possible even five years ago, and that its catastrophic consequences may be upon us much sooner than we have hitherto imagined. [...] Chief among the critics was America's leading climate scientist, James Hansen of NASA, who published an apocalyptic paper in May suggesting that by the end of the century the world would face a sea-level rise not of 59 centimetres, as the IPCC suggested, but of several metres. This was because the land-based ice-sheets were melting in a "non-linear" way – not just melting at a steady rate, but dynamically breaking up as well, and this process was not properly represented in the supercomputer climate models used to make global-warming predictions. By the time the final synthesis of all three sections of AR4 was published in Spain in November, the authors had partially accepted this criticism, and indicated that sea-level rise might be more than they had first calculated. Just as important was the fact that the report had been signed off by every government in the world, including that of the US, whose officials said that the basic scientific case for climate change had now been accepted. That did not mean that the world community was united in what to do about it. On the contrary, the meeting of the UN convention on climate change in Bali this month showed that there were still wide divisions between nations about how to go forward and tackle the most critical problem human society has ever faced. The world has two years at most to get its act together to build a new international climate treaty to replace the Kyoto protocol, which is coming to an end. But there is no longer any excuse for inaction, as people can clearly see the future, and it is dire. They used to see it in the stars, in crystal balls, in the entrails of sacrificed birds, even in tea leaves. Our generation is seeing it in the ice. Raja January 6, 2008 - 3:32pm
( categories: Analysis | Environment )
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