We don't know this for sure. The information flow about this has been tepid. The reason I mentioned assembling specialists in "marine geology and construction" is because all we're hearing from are the BP people and that retired admiral. Chu has been largely useless.

We have the best geologists and hydrologists in the world at the US Geological Survey. I'll listen to them on this issue if they're uncensored. But they can't speak candidly. Guess who is in charge of the department that controls USGS? Ken Salazar.

In the meantime, speculation on the geological situation and options are not known. If ever there were an issue that called for transparency, it's this one.

Did you see this in the article: "But it does not expect to announce decisions until after its chairman and chief executive speak with Mr. Obama at a meeting he has called for midweek."

More pathetic tentativeness. Obama acts like he's negotiating with an equal or superior power. BP operates in our "exclusive economic zone." They're present at our discretion and good nature. They should be the ones worried, not Obama.

He's surrendered our sovereignty to the last people in the world who should be in charge. That's simply unforgivable, particularly considering the stakes.

is known and documented. It is not subject to debate or obfuscation.

"Obama is a failure" is opinion, not fact; nor is it an opinion universally shared.

The simple fact may be that we've broken something that we do not know how to fix and physically do not have the resources to effectively mitigate, no matter how many executives we were to burn at the stake. Not that I object to such a bonfire on principle to set a salutary example, mind you.

I'm not a world class geologist. Are you? A world class geologist/hydrologist would be required to make sense out of this situation. There are other disciplines required. I don't know all of them but experts on underwater construction would be on the list, experts on containing underwater oil spills, etc.

We should have a top level team working on this that is known to the public. You have any team members that show a multinational, multidisciplinary collection of the very best and brightest? You may say that such a group exists. Let's accept that as a given (although there is no evidence whatsoever that this is the case). Why isn't that hypothetical group a matter of public knowledge? Where are the status reports?

Of course, there's no group that we know of. Is there a free flow of information from the government geological experts, those with expertise in biology (the US Biological Survey). It's just like climate change under Bush. There's a facebook.com group and lots of "what we're going to tell you" tasks on the web. But who's telling us the options for a fix? Censor the experts, control the flow of information, and you get a neutered public dialog.

Obama has failed to solve the problem. He's failed to tell us how he's solving it. His apogee this week is to "put pressure" on BP, although he hedged on that (my quote in the previous reply). He's failed to exert US sovereignty over the operation. One area where he hasn't failed is in his indications that he'll be approving new offshore drilling.

This failure is the equivalent of the failure to deal with the financial crisis. In that case, there's no reform yet: changing the problem legislation that caused the collapse are still in place (the repeal of Glass-Steagall and enactment of the Commodities Futures Modernization Act).

Obama, Congress, both political parties are all in on the same game --preservation of those in power, those entities with the greatest wealth -- at the expense of the rest of us. That's called an epic fail.

See How Obama decided to expand offshore drilling

You said, "This failure is the equivalent of the failure to deal with the financial crisis. In that case, there's no reform yet: changing the problem legislation that caused the collapse are still in place (the repeal of Glass-Steagall and enactment of the Commodities Futures Modernization Act).
Obama, Congress, both political parties are all in on the same game --preservation of those in power, those entities with the greatest wealth -- at the expense of the rest of us. That's called an epic fail."
That is as good a summation of the "PRESENT" status of the body politic in the U.S. of A. as I've read in some time.

And, I might add, why I got the fuck out! Sorry, there's just no fixing this. Sold, bought, paid, and gone. The empty shell is us!

I am looking at various residency options myself. I am leaning to South America or New Zealand.

Have been flowing out of the Mississippi River on top of the Macondo Prospect. The mud there at seabottom is closer to a mile thick. Get over it.

Still though, there's 8000' of "solids" below the silt down to the target depth. Unfortunately, the blown seal is only 1000' above the formation, and any attempt to kill the well now MUST fall between the blown seal at 17000' and the formation at 18000' vertical depth. Exactly because the "solids" beneath the silt are very, very hard, reaching this depth won't be possible from either of the kill wells until late fall or maybe even winter - its really slow drilling.

So, unfortunately, even if they do decide to use an explosive to kill the well, and they may well yet, there's no way to deliver the explosive to the appropriate location along the wellpath until one of the kill wells reaches that depth.

The intricacies of a successful mill-out from one of the kill wells to the blown-out well, if a mill-out will work at all, and if not, then a direct hit on the 7" rathole at that depth is statistically very, very remote - and thus a standard kill via concrete fill will probably be abandoned after some attempts. And thus you may get your wish for an explosive kill, but you'll have to wait until they can deliver the charge to the sweet spot.

But I understand your frustration.

from assembled experts. It's comprehensible.

I have no wish (I presume you're responding to my reply;) for the use of explosives. In fact, I should never have mentioned it. The latter part of the quote is a given - the use of BP as a filter for solutions. Explosives are a hot button, distraction. My error.

My frustration stems from the political spectrum on this. At one end, we've got "drill baby drill" and at the other we've got the current circumstance - letting BP call the shots.

I was with a friend who explained the role BP dividends play with British pensions. It's quite pervasive. Nobody makes out in this deal. It's what the hydrologists call a "cluster f**k."

The misinterpretations of and misunderstanding about the small trickle of information which actually is being delivered to the general public is both widespread and insidious, and is unfortunately resulting in even more CT and fear mongering than is appropriate... maybe. Clearly though, there are many unanswered questions and doubtful "facts" which remain. Some of the predictions are indeed troubling, and some are nothing less than terrifying.

Its difficult for me to frame the debate within the spectrum you propose, but I don't possess the political savvy nor attention span which you have clearly demonstrated on this site, so I'll leave it at that. I submit though, as a possibility for you to consider, that there's absolutely nothing that can be done politically about fixing this problem at this time - the only thing that can be done outside of sucking up more from the cap is to wait for the kill wells.

The only sensible and prudent approach now is preparation and readiness for the potential problems to come out of this - a pragmatic approach to be sure, but not without considering worse case scenarios.

I hope to hear something sensible along these lines from Obama tomorrow. The seasons first hurricane is likely already forming.

And not a PR stunt.

You're on target with the circus comment. The fringe rumors are absolutely outrageous - mass evacuations; the leak as a deliberate plot to take over the country (the military is refusing, you'll be glad to know;). Then there's the conjecture that a hurricane will suck up oil from the gulf, and ignite it on the mainland with lightening!

Makes you wonder, what's next?

Disasters make for strange bedfellows.

One of the oddest things about the BP catastrophe is seeing what passes for the American left calling for BP to be dismembered in order to pay compensation to states full of Palinite rednecks who wanted big oil to be subject to no regulations or safeguards whatsoever.

As far as I am concerned, British pensioners have a far greater claim on BP's dividend than do the Palinites because this disaster is a completely foreseeable consequence of the policies Palinites fight for. Republican voters in the southern Confederate states are culpable for this mess and deserve to suffer the consequences.

Almost feels like it was written by a Republican.

I'm a democratic socialist. I believe in helping anyone who needs help except for those who brazenly bite the hand that would feed them.

I have a hard time finding any sympathy for people who've spent the last forty years voting for politicians who have made a point out of deregulating the oil industry and broiling the planet through uncontrolled carbon emissions.

It's time for the big payday, as politicians from these states demand that offshore permits be granted pretty damn quickly, "the jobs" ya know. I saw Edwin Edwards "victory" speech when he beat David Duke. It was remarkable. He said, basically, you have no idea what's coming your way. He was right and she's arrived. Edwards is still in jail, a gross injustice.

TOD has a heavy-going statistical analysis on the probabilities of relief wells killing Macondo.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6573

Those guys are quite optimistic. I've never seen a drillers target smaller than 2 meters across - ever. Not even in well-known strata. And then the hit probability at that size is never better than 95%.

Now they want to hit a 7-inch target dead center, and they declare P=0.2?

Lots of nice stats, but I seriously doubt this variable is normally distributed first of all, (more likely a Chi-square with a long tail on the right, very few wells get done ahead of schedule), and even if it was normal, P isn't going to be anywhere in the first signficant decimal. More likely something like 0.05, I'd guess optimistically - based on limited experience with likelyhood analysis of penetration at a given point in a formation - but not on direct hit on a 7" wide rathole.

Again though, mill-out may be possible - but I doubt it. If the pressure has dropped enough to support the mill-out tool by August, then most of the payload will have been delivered. :-(

You've pretty much nailed it.

Even if explosives were planted deep enough to effect the rock, there's no way to be even remotely confident that fracturing rock would result in a leak tight plug heavy enough to keep the oil at bay.

If anyone still believes in the explosives option, I suggest they try this scale experiment at home.

Materials:

A 55 gallon drum, a wine barrel, or similar large container.
A garden hose attached to a water supply.
Enough gravel to fill the drum half way.
Enough sand to fill the drum from the gravel line to the brim.

Procedure:

1. Loop the exit end of the garden hose into a U shape. Place in drum such that the bottom of the U loop is in contact with the base of the drum. Adjust such that the hose nozzle is more or less flush with the top of the drum. The incoming half of the loop (towards the water supply) should be at the side of the drum while the outgoing half (towards the nozzle) should be running through the middle of the drum.

2. Connect the other end of the garden hose to a water supply. Turn on valve. Water should spray out of the nozzle. Turn off valve.

3. Fill drum half way with gravel without disturbing the hose.

4. Fill remainder of drum with sand.

5. Turn on water valve to full open. Water should spray out of the nozzle.

6. Note that you're getting very wet.

-- Congratulations, you've created a simulated blowout. Garden hoses are typically pressurized to 80 psi. Real blowouts have pressures of 10,000 psi or more. --

Can you think of anywhere you can put explosives along the outgoing half of the hose loop that will stop the flow?

I saw a local news report that said, 'If your worried about shrimp from the Gulf, don't. They're still around and there are plenty of them."

I can hardly wait. They'll go down like oysters. The next news we'll get is that the McIlhenny family is hit by all this and there will be no more Tobasco sauce. Maybe I'll give STP a try. "Give your Gulf shrimp that added boost with a dash of STP."

More doom but ...