The U.S. finally buckled to the inevitable and issued an apology to Pakistan for killing twenty-four of its troops in a Nato airstrike last year. Pakistan has reciprocated and re-opened the key supply lines into Afghanistan which had been closed for seven months – without charging any additional transit fees.
The seven month logjam was always in both nations’ interests to break – The U.S. and it’s allies need those logistic routes for withdrawal now, far more than for resupply, and Pakistan was facing the cut-off of all U.S. aid if it didn’t re-open them. But still, the first face-saving step had to come from America and one has to wonder why it took seven long months before it was taken. What a way to run a war. Was there an actual reason, one that makes some kind of rational sense, rather than simple bullish intransigence? Perhaps the thought was that if an apology was issued too early then it would only encourage Pakistan, the very definition of a dodgy ally, to increase its demands and be more pushy knowing it had the U.S. over a logistic barrel. We haven’t heard any particular strategy explained by U.S. officials, though, so one is left with the distinct impression it was sheer bloody obstinacy – which would be especially stupid given that it’s obvious to anyone that Pakistan really does have the U.S. and NATO over a logistical barrel. Unless those routes stay open, there is no way on earth a withdrawal of the bulk of NATO forces from Afghanistan happens in 2014 without descending into a chaotic, very publicly embarassing, clusterfuck. Pakistan’s generals can figure that out as easily as anyone else.
The backroom deal over this must have been very very steep. The Paki’s were in the drivers seat. The Paki’s need parts for those F-16 nuke carrying capable planes. Spare parts and maintenance would be just one line item on the long list. Banking services to launder all the graft money of the elites collect from convoys. Exclusive trucking contracts. The ability to purchase at discounted rates heavy lift helicopters and spare parts.
The list goes on and on. The Paki’s know the golden goose is only going to lay the real big eggs for a few dozen months. The eggs will get smaller very soon.
There were probably no direct charges for freight to pass, but the true cost is probably much higher than the 20K requested for each container to pass.
“There are two types of folk music:
quiet folk music and loud folk music.
I play both.”
Dave Alvin
The Pakistanis basically got the bare minimum from this after clearly having wanted to extract quite a bit more. The only card that they had to play was that they could make things more expensive. Given the scale of things and the stakes we’re looking at, that don’t stack up to as much as they thought it did, which was the point of the whole exercise – Pakistan just learned that they won’t be so firmly in the driver’s seat during conflict termination as they had presumed. I’m sure they’ll build another narrative around how the US stabbed them in the back yadda, yadda, but this is what it looks like when bad strategists out-clever themselves.
If I had to bet, I’d bet that the only thing that they got out of this as a quid pro quo is that the US won’t utterly destroy the military’s credibility by letting JSOC loose on the Haqqani network inside Pakistan. Even that is subject to revision – they get a fix on Zawahiri, they won’t hesitate another incursion to take him out. Hell, they’re more likely to stay their hand because he’s such a divisive figure inside the organization than because of what it would do to the Pakistani military.
“Everything around you that you call life was made up by people that were no smarter than you and you can change it, you can influence it, you can build your own things that other people can use.” ~ Steve Jobs
Everything has a price when dealing with the Paki’s. It’s either direct money’s or some other payment.
I would be surprised if the Paki’s had to go against their DNA and not get some fat enriching deal out of this. The U.S. is so despised by the general public of Pakistan to allow the routes to reopen is going to be publicly seen as backing down to a foreigner. The payment must outweigh the political downside.
We will never know what the price was if there was one.
I always enjoy your views!!
“There are two types of folk music:
quiet folk music and loud folk music.
I play both.”
Dave Alvin