The Nelson Report:"The Good News- Investors are Giving Up on Policy"


Some bad news/good news market philosophy from yesterday's Nelson Report:

OBAMANOMICS...every commentary we read about the Obama Administration's response to the financial crisis is that for the markets, nothing seems to matter except "fixing the banks"...defined as taking all those toxic loans off the back of the credit market, so business can get what it needs to keep employment from continuing to fall off the cliff.

This is very bad news, it's increasingly becoming clear, since "everyone" also now agrees that the markets will continue to tank, in the absence of a "bank plan" it believes in.

That's because the Obama folks seem to be telling us that there will BE no immediate satisfaction of this "demand", since the President and his advisors realize that whatever they may want privately, Congress isn't going to vote the trillion (or perhaps two-trillion) needed to really clean up bad bank debt.

More after the jump

But let's step back 10 feet and listen to experts like ISI's Tom Gallagher.

Tom advises clients this morning that the good news in the bad news may be that "investors are giving up on policy".

"We've noted before that the role of government policy during the financial crisis has been to cause false rallies, as investors have exaggerated views on what policy can accomplish - or are in denial on just how bad deleveraging will be for the economy and markets.

"Part of the problem is that the scale of the problem keeps getting bigger as policy continues to fall short...

"So here's our 'deep thought' for the day: if market bottoms are
psychological and require capitulation by investors, then it can be said that investors are close to that attitude now, on policy.

"The increasingly held view that policy is ineffective in dealing with the credit crisis (and very possibly counter-productive) may be a reason to feel good about market prospects next year.

"The notion that policy is impotent, along with commentary on avoiding
stocks, are the sorts of things that can define market bottoms".

There now! Don't you feel ever so much better? Bank plan, schmank plan.


nymole March 11, 2009 - 5:38pm

What is the Nelson Report? Never heard of it. Linky? thanks.

alyosha March 12, 2009 - 12:03pm


Speakers/Bios:

Christopher Nelson is a Senior Vice President of Samuels International Associates, a Washington, D.C. consulting firm where he serves as Editor and Publisher of The Nelson Report, a daily "insider's" look at foreign policy and trade issues.

Nelson has been a consultant since leaving Capitol Hill in 1983, to join Teramura International, a new company designed to facilitate US-Asia business and diplomatic relations. What became The Nelson Report started at that time. Nelson joined Samuels International in 1997.

Nelson is a graduate of Phillips Academy, Andover, 1962 and The University of California, Berkeley, 1967. He did graduate studies at McGill University, Montreal. His career began with United Press International, in New York, in 1967, and he has spent his professional life as a journalist and Asia policy specialist with a special focus on Japan, China/Taiwan and Korea.

Capitol Hill jobs have included the House International Relations Subcommittee on Asia, where he handled normalization of relations with China, during the Carter Administration; and the Senate Democratic Policy Committee, under then-Majority Leader Robert Byrd, during the Reagan Administration.

The Nelson Report is an interactive information service, using email, phones and fax, allowing clients to pose private questions for their own use, in addition to seeking details from the daily Report. The focus of the Report is the politics and the personalities of the policy making process""in addition to the results and implications for Asia interests.

His hobbies include American history, especially the Civil War, and serving with friends in a Civil War re-enactment group (think Kamakura Festival with muskets!). He has published two books and countless articles on the Civil War, and been a talking head on History Channel television specials.

http://www.keia.org/report.php?id=PRG10025


"Go confidently in the direction of your dreams! Live the life you've imagined." -Henry David Thoreau

Tina March 12, 2009 - 12:51pm

about 59 links come up.

jawbone2 March 12, 2009 - 2:35pm

because there isn't one. Apologies for making the assumption that I did not have to explain Chris Nelson

and "The Nelson Report" further.
(which Tina has done here).

None of the "Nelson Report" entries at the Agonist has an external link.

I was sent the excerpt I posted by a friend who has a subscription and is much more clued in to trade matters than I am- I found its black humor about our little economic problem somewhat entertaining.

--nymole


I feel the American worker has been sacrificed to the capitalist idols in the ancient Mayan fashion. - Sue Lamb, NYT reader

nymole March 12, 2009 - 4:45pm

eom


I feel the American worker has been sacrificed to the capitalist idols in the ancient Mayan fashion. - Sue Lamb, NYT reader

nymole March 12, 2009 - 11:20pm

the Ministry of Truth speaks again!

quietly lmao, those assets are healthy now that the taxpayer pick up the tab


albatross

dk March 13, 2009 - 5:15am

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