A Sugar-Coated Satan Sandwich


Was it just a week ago that President Obama was hanging tough, insisting he would never accept a debt ceiling package that excluded tax increases? In rejecting a six month extension of the debt ceiling, Obama said last week:

But there’s an even greater danger to this approach. Based on what we’ve seen these past few weeks, we know what to expect six months from now. The House of Representatives will once again refuse to prevent default unless the rest of us accept their cuts-only approach. Again, they will refuse to ask the wealthiest Americans to give up their tax cuts or deductions. Again, they will demand harsh cuts to programs like Medicare. And once again, the economy will be held captive unless they get their way.

Here is what Speaker of the House John Boehner said today about the debt ceiling package that has now been agreed to by the House and Senate leadership, along with President Obama:

Now listen, this isn’t the greatest deal in the world," he said, according to excerpts of the call provided to press by Boehner's office. "But it shows how much we’ve changed the terms of the debate in this town."
Boehner painted the deal as victory for the Republican party because it did not include revenues, which Democrats have long called for as part of a final deal.
"There is nothing in this framework that violates our principles," he said. "It’s all spending cuts. The White House bid to raise taxes has been shut down." – source HuffPost

While it is true the Republicans held the economy captive in these negotiations, and while President Obama is certainly correct in predicting that they will do it again at the next opportunity (they’ll shut down the Super Congress next if they don’t get their way), it really helps the Republicans to be negotiating with a man who consistently backs down in confrontations.

Why Obama continues to do this on one issue after another perplexes people in his own party, but a consensus is beginning to emerge. Gone is the theory that Obama and his team are three-dimensional chess players, out-foxing the Republicans in the long term while they give up tactical ground in the short term. That leaves two theories: Obama is weak, or Obama is a closet Republican. The president gave a clue today, when he introduced his grand compromise:

Despite what some in my own party have argued, I believe that we need to make some modest adjustments to programs like Medicare to ensure that they’re still around for future generations.

So he’s a closet Republican after all. Let’s suppose we all agree that “modest adjustments to Medicare” are needed, as part of a bigger package of “entitlement reform” that President Obama has been talking about. Barack Obama leads the Democratic Party in negotiations with Republicans on all budgetary matters. He is already offering up entitlement reform and modest adjustments to Medicare, while his political opponents are offering up nothing in exchange. This has been going on for nearly three years, and at each step of the process the Republicans receive positive reinforcement: offer up nothing, demand more than you think necessary, and you will achieve both these goals.

The White House is promising that when the Super Congress, consisting of six Republicans and six Democrats, meets to decide the hard issues about defense cuts, entitlement reform, and tax increases, they are going to come back with a balanced package of these components. If they don’t, the “compromise” just achieved will force immediate cuts in defense and domestic spending. Notice, however, that it will force no immediate tax increases on the wealthy or any elimination of corporate tax loopholes. There is also a provision in this compromise which protects the Pentagon from any real cuts, because the forced reductions will only be imposed on defense-related budgets in places like the Department of State and Homeland Security.

If you are John Boehner, it is obvious what you have to do next. You appoint three tough-nosed Tea Party representatives to the Super Congress. They are there to stall and snarl up the discussions so that nothing can be agreed. You then let the “drastic” defense and domestic cuts take place, hardly any of which hurt your constituents in the military-industrial complex.

Stage two comes about when the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy are once again due to expire. The White House says the president can “use his veto pen to ensure nearly $1 trillion in additional deficit reduction by not extending the high-income tax cuts." This is of course laughable on the surface, because the president doesn’t have the guts to veto something the Republicans desperately want. But to ensure a favorable outcome, all Boehner has to do is take another hostage. One likely hostage target might be Michelle Obama – not literally, of course, but Boehner can threaten to reduce the budget for the Office of the First Lady to the bone. As the First Lady is the only member of this administration who is doing anything that might be construed as helpful to the average American, this removes Obama’s fig leaf that he is a Democrat.

Of course, by the time Obama gets around to dealing with the Bush tax-cuts, he might no longer be president, having lost his reelection a few months earlier because the Democratic Party was so dispirited it failed to show up at the polls. And why should it? Democrats worked their ass off for Al Gore – a man who could have changed history if he had been allowed to place the budgetary surplus in his lock box – only to find the Republicans along with their cronies on the Supreme Court stole the election. They did the same thing for John Kerry, and then again with candidate Obama, only to find that Obama’s fine words and promises were meaningless. What’s the point of voting if all you get is different reincarnations of George W. Bush?

The only political leader who is sounding skeptical of this new compromise is Nancy Pelosi. She says the House Democrats will look at the details, but they might not support the legislation. The leader of the Congressional Black Caucus, Rep. Emmanuel Cleaver, has called the legislation a “sugar-coated Satan sandwich.” Unfortunately, House Democrats don’t count, as they are in the minority.

Senate Democrats do count, however. What I would like to see is at least one Democratic senator filibuster this deal. It only takes one, and they wouldn’t have to hold the floor for long – just until midnight tomorrow. Maybe some other senators of conscience might join them, like Bernie Sanders, the independent. It might all be futile: the Senate leadership ought to be able to roust up at least 60 Democrats and Republicans to force cloture – after all, there are at least 40 Republicans in the Senate who should recognize a victory when it is handed to them by the President. And there ought to be at least 20 Democrats who are weak-kneed enough to be able to do Harry Reid’s bidding.

Still, it would be a small token of complaint from the Senate – a protest that Medicare and who knows what other “entitlements” are now being put on the chopping block of reform, which never stops at just one step, while the very wealthiest people in this nation are not called upon to give up any of their wealth in return.


Numerian August 1, 2011 - 11:51am

safety net programs for the poor (she listed Medicaid and Food Stamps) are exempt from mandatory cuts.

She said the only cuts to Medicare could be a 2% cut to providers (as if that won't affect tha ability of seniors to get care, Claire?).

However, she did not say these programs are exempt from the machinations of the chosen few, the Twelve Caesars of the Super Congress.

We are going to be lied to big time -- did she lie to the public?

jawbone2 August 1, 2011 - 8:56am

Not sure exactly what all is on it, but I'll accept Reid's statement that there are NO CONSTRAINTS on the Politburo's actions.

Lambert at Corrente discusses, with links, while fighting nausea.

So, McCaskill clearly is misleading the public. Damn these lying liars and the lies they tell.

Now, what nickname best describes the Super Congress? Twelve Caesars or Politburo?

jawbone2 August 1, 2011 - 9:06am

Obama went from dancing with the devil to being the devil

pvbklyn August 1, 2011 - 9:58am

Numerian:
As always, an excellent article. Unfortunately, this is an uncoated shit sandwich that finally confirms this country is a fascist state and well on its way to losing its sovereign status.

steelhead August 1, 2011 - 10:24am

Know the US is in a terminal decline, and intend to rescue their constituents (enable their looting), until we reach bottom.

They are making no attempt to provide JOBS, or contain outsourcing, because in the short term these activities generate profits by asset stripping the US.

Synoia August 1, 2011 - 11:36am

that proposed cuts are not actual cuts in spending, but instead cuts from projected spending increases...

I did inhale.

Don August 1, 2011 - 1:04pm

important is that Obama has got his catfood commission back.

pihwht August 1, 2011 - 2:11pm

The only plus side of decimating the middle class and stomping on the neck of the underclass is that their ability to consume energy and buy shit will be greatly reduced. Interesting way of reducing the environmental footprint of the USA.
And by causing chaos in the world economy, it may lower the footprint of the emerging consumer nations.
Who'd a thunk it, Obama and the oligarchs are really a tree hugging environmentalist after all.

JT August 1, 2011 - 11:11pm

Back in prerevolutionary France, there was plenty of wilderness in France, mostly reserved for the hunting of the royalty and nobility. After the revolution the peasants got land reform and ended up trying to cultivate much sensitive or marginal land with devastating environmental results. So in a sense, I think this kind of oligarchic structure may be better at culling the herd of us proles (but how that model works in an industrial economy may actually work against the environment, since nature is now a commodity in the hands of the rich, like the mountains that get reduced to slag heaps all over this country).

On the other hand, the repressive nature of oligarchy will also prevent any sort of needed innovations or advances that might help with the environmental challenges facing us.

maqmigh August 2, 2011 - 10:01am

IF Europe and Japan were not going through the exact same exercise. Europe in fact is in far worse shape than the US. I'd add our imports are at record highs, so somehow folks are finding the money to buy crap.

But I do agree the energy and environmental issues at some point are going to HAVE TO pinch this all in. Then entitlement nations (er, consumer nations) everywhere will go into the death throe withdrawals. Consumer nations without their stupid crap will look like heroin addicts going through withdrawal.

Scotjen61 August 2, 2011 - 12:06pm

Everyone mad at progress on universal healthcare proceeds to vote in a cabal of conservatives. THEN is angry when the cabal of conservatives do not give them what they want, ie. new revenues (I guess).

So I guess now we will all elect in still more conservatives, to what end I'd have no idea. Its like folks are so intent to burn their own houses down.

What did all you folks out there voting in conservative lawmakers expect. I'm next door to Wisconsin, and frankly not sympathetic at all. They load their congress with conservatives and then lament the conservative policies they themselves brought in.

You let the vampires in and THEN they can kill you. I'll never understand this level of brainlessness, and my sympathy has gone to the floor.

Scotjen61 August 2, 2011 - 12:02pm

But the conservative cabal leader, Obama, had already been voted in. What did folks voting him in expect? A fair number of us knew and said he was a vampire back during that election. All the signs were there in his history. Unfortunately I do understand this level of brainlessness, having had my nose rubbed in it, and my sympathy has gone to the floor.

Oh and by the way, progress on universal healthcare insurance company profits isn't even what most people are the most mad at.

quiet Bill August 2, 2011 - 12:48pm

but now we have more job killing legislation. Biden says now they can concentrate on jobs. Really? Three years in and now they want to talk jobs. Of course McConnell has other ideas.

Tina August 2, 2011 - 1:44pm

that anyone was going to even *acknowledge* the direct strategic impact of their position, far less refrain from repeating it, did you?

But I forgot. One of the Agonist's loudest editorial positions was that they're all the same party - the Money Party - so it really made no difference even though we can now clearly see it did.


"The best-informed man is not necessarily the wisest. Indeed there is a danger that precisely in the multiplicity of his knowledge he will lose sight of what is essential."

- Dietrich Bonhoeffer

Escher Sketch August 2, 2011 - 2:01pm

is the Tea Party chewed through their leash.(Chamber of Commerce even came out for it)

Tina August 2, 2011 - 5:04pm

So the people who didn't think that the healthcare bill went far enough voted for conservatives, but then got mad at those conservatives because they didn't raise taxes?

Or is it that the people who thought the healthcare bill went too far voted in conservatives, but then got mad at those conservatives because they didn't raise taxes?

Bolo August 2, 2011 - 4:57pm

and Obama has said he wants Reid to appoint deficit hawks to the Committee of the Twelve Caesars. All it takes is one Dem to agree with the R's and Katie bar the door! We're on a greased slide of cuts into...deep doodoo.

BTW, what happens if by some 1 in a gazillion chance the Politburo breaks with Dear Leader and comes up with something Obama doensn't like AND he vetos it? Does that also launch the automatic cuts robot?

I do think Obama likes secret negotiations and back room closed door deals. Very heavy soundproof doors. This Committee of the Twelve Caesars is right out of his bag of tricks.

jawbone2 August 2, 2011 - 6:42pm

Numerian, I would really like to hear your thoughts on the transition from credit inflation to credit deflation and how that impacts economic growth. The United States and Europes credit inflation period (ie. folks taking on ever more debt) began in about the 1960's, and it is the regime I have lived under and known my entire life. It was a world of rising home ownership, globalization, easy credit, and two cars and a boat in every garage.

The aughts have seen a transition where there has been a collective realization of too much debt. Individually, among businesses, local and state government, and sovereigns. So folks are out there trying to fix their balance sheets, and like credit inflation - credit deflation is cumulative. Paying off a debt does not grow the economy, in fact it contracts it. QE1 and QE2 was an attempt at short term 'hyper' inflation if you will and it did not take anyone off their balance sheet fixation. Credit is available and not being taken, debt is contracting and hence economies.

Behind the transition is an energy environment that has essentially flatlined, and without energy growth should also trend to a flatline. Oil has plateaued since 2005, coal has peaked (thermal energy derived from coal) in the US since 1999. Natural Gas will likely plateau much sooner than anyone expects. And none of the renewable energy sources are ready for prime time. So we have flatlined energy and contracting credit. There is no economic policy or governmental regulation that can change the reality of peak energy and contracting credit.

So how does this play out?

Scotjen61 August 3, 2011 - 11:21am

Come on, you know how that plays out.

But to be more specific, it's been called catabolic collapse by at least one very well informed observer and we've already been living through it: http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/onset-of-catabolic-collapse.html

rumor August 3, 2011 - 12:25pm

I've been a deflationista since the early Aughts, based on my reading of the 1930s Depression and the underlying collapse of the credit system. Since I was part of the banking world - specifically the derivatives system - I could see what was happening, though some of the excesses in the credit default products certainly shocked me. Also, I began to notice that home prices decoupled from their traditional relationship to consumer price inflation, which was highly unusual and seemed to connect to the invention of the home equity line of credit (a way to "commoditize" the family home). Things seemed to be in place for a credit bubble, on a global basis once securitization took hold.

Having lived through the Herstatt, Continental Bank, and Penn Central bankruptcies, it wasn't hard to predict how this bubble would burst. They always reach their climax with a credit event, typically an unexpected bankruptcy. Back in September 2005, I wrote about the probability that this event would occur in the mortgage backed securities market, which was the locus of the housing securitization frenzy, and sure enough Bear Stearns obliged 18 months later.

The depressing thing about these credit/deflationary crises is how unavoidable they are once the bubble pops. The economic system seems to have an unstoppable urge to reach a new equilibrium where asset values meet up eventually with earnings capacity. This takes a while to work out, but often the asset decline is 50% or more. Government intervention can slow the process and give momentary impressions of growth, but ultimately the deflationary pressures return until the equilibrium point is reached.

The observation that credit deflation is cumulative is spot on. The process develops a vicious cycle as one asset sale leads to another. People don't recognize that this is nothing more than the unwinding of the virtuous cycle that creates the bubble, when for example your neighbor's record-high sales price of their home pulls everybody else's values up.

This happens to be a massive global deflationary collapse, unseen before since the global economy only recently came into existence. You could say that the fundamental dynamic of this deflation is the necessity of developed world living standards collapsing to meet up with emerging market living standards, as new competitors enter the system to steal market share from the West. While this is a long term process, I'm surprised that it is more telescoped that what would normally be expected. We seem to be compressing most of the pain into this decade. By the way, this week's announcement that Foxconn is going to be replacing many of its 800,000 factory workers in China with robots is an important turning point. Global labor arbitrage has now reached the one country that invented it. We now seem to be coming to the end of the arbitrage process, at the same time we are entering a dangerous phase of the deflationary collapse as China suffers multiple blows: the loss of its major trading partners, the loss of its labor arbitrage advantages, and the social upheaval from increases in unemployment.

Of course, what has made this deflationary cycle much worse is the West's attempts for 20 years to avoid the pain through asset inflation, leading to bubbles. Nothing could have been worse than Greenspan refusing to acknowledge the existence of asset inflation or bubbles - in fact he is still touting it as a good thing for the economy. A very misguided and ultimately costly illusion.

Finally, overlaying the deflationary process is the existence of raw material and energy shortages. As the deflationary cycle proceeds in waves, there are periodic episodes of apparent bottoming and growth. This time though, they are met with a superimposed sine wave of price spikes from scarce raw materials and energy supplies, which abort these expansions prematurely. Then commodity prices head down, giving the impression that the shortages are gone, which in many cases is not true. The true nature of the shortages will only become apparent when this deflationary cycle finally bottoms, which should be around 2016 or a bit later.

You could say, then, that peak energy and contracting credit are going to combine to make this deflationary collapse one of the worst in centuries. This is one reason I've held on to my view that the bottom of the cycle will coincide with a bottom in the Dow anywhere from 1,000 to 3,600. This seems preposterous now, of course, with the Dow at 11,800, but really we're talking about setting a new low just a few thousand points below the 2009 low of 6,600. Once we reach that low, there will be some very good buying opportunities in stocks and it will be time to get bullish again. But not in real estate. That asset will linger along on the bottom for many years afterwards.

It seems in the past two weeks the stock market has kicked off the next and most vicious aspect of the deflationary collapse. We could well see the collapse of many major banks and most small ones. This is the point where widespread social disorder sets in, and where no asset is safe, even your cash if it is in a weak bank. What seems especially important is that the decline in stocks is occuring around the globe, and austerity has taken hold everywhere. These are the perfect conditions for the worst phase of this deflationary collapse. In the US, we will know it is upon us when the market gives up on the Fed being of any help. We are almost there. Today's announcement by Don Kohn that the Fed will seriously consider QE3 bides some time, but it is quite possible the market will either force gold and commodities even higher in response, which will force the Fed to give up on QE, or the market will anticipate it and sell off everything in despair.

Well, I hope that cheers you up!

Numerian August 3, 2011 - 11:17pm

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