Chris Nelson on Iran:

SUMMARY: a potentially historic sea change between the US and Iran is only just starting to play out, but the past 24 hours may be a gift from the political gods for Obama's long-standing argument with McCain, about dealings with Iran and other baddies.

If so, it won't be easy, of course. With the President signing-off on US diplomatic participation with the Euros, agreeing to send Amb. Burns to Geneva, Supreme Leader Khamenei says he wants to negotiate, but won't agree (in advance?) to shutting down any part of the nuclear program.

I can only add that we've advocated something similar here at The Agonist for a long, long time. Jeez, are people finally listening to us? More below.

So where's the "good news"? Clearly the State Department has won a big battle over Vice President Cheney, and Bush has OK'd a genuine shift in the US diplomatic approach.

Bottom lines remain the same...Iran has to agree to at least a freeze, or the US will push more sanctions. This time, though, if Iran balks, it will clearly be Teheran's fault.

IRAN...a perhaps cynical US intelligence Loyal Reader comments that the announcements of the past 24 hours "show that Iran is learning a lesson from North Korea, now hinting it will accept talks about talks! They have finally figured out how to deal with Bush."

A less cynical informed Loyal Reader says we should take heart at what he calls "a huge internal battle won by State" in the President's decision to OK sending Amb. Bill Burns to Geneva this weekend.

"My guess is the OVP [Office of the Vice President] will continue to fight it, and you have to wonder what's really behind the scenes in Teheran, but it does seem clear that the Supreme Leader is at least willing to talk."

Will Burns be allowed to talk directly with the Iranians? Not officially...State and the White House today sounded very much like the restrictions initially put on lead N. Korea negotiator Chris Hill, that he couldn't meet bilaterally with his DPRK counterpart, had to have others in the room when he did, etc.

(There was a press rumor Burns would make a "surprise" follow-on visit to Teheran, but our sources say "highly unlikely at this time.")

But Burns, like Hill, is a pro with the requisite intestinel fortitude, so on balance the decision to allow him to participate within the European delegation...especially when paired with permission for State to establish an "interest section" in the Swiss Embassy in Teheran...is the first serious ray of light to shine on US-Iran dialogue in a long time.

Is it naive to expect positive results? Is Obama premature in his careful, but unmistakably positive reaction to a decision which, on balance, basically takes his advice about meeting and talking with Iran?

Certainly it gives Obama a nice boost before his trip to Europe and the Middle East in a few days, and he today issued a firm statement. We have double-checked, and nothing on this so far from the McCain folks. Here's Obama:

"I commend our European allies and other friends on this effort. Now that the United States is involved, it should stay involved with the full strength of our diplomacy. A united front with our friends and allies directly calling on the Iranians to stand down on their illicit nuclear program will maximize the international pressure we can bring to bear and will show the Iranian people that Iran's isolation is a function of its government's unwillingness to live up to its obligations. Iran should live up to its obligations now; by waiting, it will only face greater isolation."

Our expert Loyal Reader, quoted above, adds this analysis:

"It's not in Iran's interest to embarrass Burns. I see this as a prelude to negotiations where they suspend working on additional centrifuges, and we hold back on seeking additonal sanctions.

Look to see a 'pre-negotiation' period of another six weeks or so, and if there is no agreement to negotiate by then, it clearly will be on Iran for stalling.

If so, then the US can seriously, correctly argue that we sent our best diplomat there and they still wouldn't play.

And if they actually agree to suspend activity, and we agree to suspend pushing for sanctions, then we can talk seriously. The President's decision to send Burns in effect calls the Iranian's bluff, because if this fails, then we can go to the P-5 and say 'time to get serious'."