Who is More Progressive - Obama or Clinton?


Considerations

Most analyses of voting records begin by looking at the bills, and only looking a "key" votes (there are a lot of procedural moves in the roll call, as well as nonsense votes). So, by careful selection, the National Journal is able to "show" that Barack Obama has the most liberal voting record in the Senate (more liberal than Bernie Sanders, the socialist), just as they did for John Kerry in 2004. Conversely, Progressive Punch gives Clinton a 91.5 to Obama's 89.28. One of the ratings sites used to call Obama a "Rank and File Democrat" and Clinton a "Radical Democrat", but I can't find it, so maybe they're in the process of reversing the designations.

Furthermore, there's really no way for an outsider to know by looking at the write-up on Thomas what a particular vote really means (is an "Aye" vote on a procedural move the same as a "Nay" vote on the underlying bill? Only sometimes.) The only people who can possibly know what a vote actually are the people in the Senate, so I decided to avoid classifying bills or roll-calls at all. Let the Senators classify them, by their votes.

Methodolody

GovTrack.us has rdf yearly files of roll call votes here, which list by bill who voted which way. Using a simple xml parser, I invert these so I have a list for each senator of how they voted on each bill. That makes it easy to compare each senator's voting record for a year.

I started by producing two lists: Obama's voting record compared to everybody else's, and Clinton's voting record compared to everybody else's. These are sorted by descending order of percent of agreement. For example, here's the top of Obama's 2007 list (percent agreement, number of comparable votes, senator):

97.8% Lautenberg, Frank (D)
97.1% Durbin, Dick (D)
96.7% Menendez, Robert (D)
96.6% Schumer, Charles (D)
96.3% Cantwell, Maria (D)
96.3% Clinton, Hillary (D)
95.8% Kerry, John (D)



and here's the top of Clinton's 2007 list:

97.9% Durbin, Dick (D)
97.9% Schumer, Charles (D)
96.7% Lautenberg, Frank (D)
96.4% Brown, Sherrod (D)
96.3% Obama, Barack (D)
95.8% Murray, Patty (D)
95.6% Menendez, Robert (D)



So Clinton and Obama agreed 96.3% of the time, and both were in close agreement with Durbin, Schumer (the senior Senators from their states), Lautenberg and Menedez. But I noticed that sometimes there was a fairly large gap between where a Senator fell on the two lists. So I combined the two lists by subtracting Clinton's percent of agreement from Obama's for each Senator. A negative number therefore means that Clinton agreed with that Senator more often than Obama, while a positive number means Obama agreed with that Senator more often. When I ran that analysis, the results were startling. Where they differed, (which, remember is really not all that often), Clinton was far more likely to side with a Republican.

Here are the top 7 senators in 2007 with whom Clinton was more inclined to agree than Obama (senator, net percentage):

Barrasso, John (R)-5.2%
Lott, Trent (R)-5.0%
Rockefeller, John (D)-2.9%
Voinovich, George (R)-2.9%
Bennett, Robert (R)-2.7%
Domenici, Pete (R)-2.7%
Murkowski, Lisa (R)-2.6%



And the bottom of the list (the 7 senators with whom Obama was more inclined to agree):

Hagel, Charles (R)1.4%
Wyden, Ron (D)1.7%
Snowe, Olympia (R)2.2%
Kerry, John (D)2.4%
Cantwell, Maria (D)2.6%
Feingold, Russell (D)3.4%
McCain, John (R)3.9%



Notice there are 6 Rs and 1 D on Clinton's list, and 3 Rs and 4 Ds on Obama's. But we're talking about small numbers here. A few examples is not enough. We need an unmistakable trend. And here it is.

YearCandidate diff > 1% diff > 2% diff > 3%
2007Obama 6R 7D 2R 3D 1R 1D
Clinton 20R 1I 15D 10R 10D 2R 0D
2006Obama 0R 2I 12D 0R 2I 6D 0R 1I 4D
Clinton 46R 15D 36R 9D 24R 6D
2005Obama 3R 2I 16D 0R 6D 0R 2D
Clinton 12R 7D 5R 2D 0R 1D



Where Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama differ, Hillary Clinton is far more likely to take the Republican side.

If you want the (python) code that produced these results, PM me with your email. And if you're wondering why the numbers don't seem to balance, so did I. Until I realized I could produce an example of 4 voters and 3 bills where the results wouldn't "balance", either.


Gordon February 26, 2008 - 9:40pm

If they agree 96.3 of the time, how does the 3.7% difference make her a secret omg republican? Are you saying that every bill put up by republicans are bad? Does the methodology account for missed votes?

Tina February 26, 2008 - 10:05pm

I have no idea whether they were out sick, or playing politics.

If it were not so unbalanced over 3 years, I would say it was so what. But it is a very clear trend. She is more inclined than he to agree with Republicans.

I didn't say she was a secret omg republican. You did.

Gordon February 26, 2008 - 10:51pm

I guess I will have to look at the bills to see exactly what they were voting on. It doesn't change the fact that they agreed 96.3% of the time, which is pretty consistent by any standard.

Tina February 26, 2008 - 10:57pm

...and in 2006 92%. There are around 300 roll call votes per year. So, yes, it can make a difference.

But I guess the real point is that there are quite a number of people claiming that Clinton is really the more progressive. Going by votes, that is just flat out not true.

Gordon February 27, 2008 - 7:22pm

I see what you were getting at.

Tina February 27, 2008 - 9:51pm

Let's not forget that neither is really progressive at all, one is just less corrupt than the other.

Nominay February 27, 2008 - 7:59pm

loudmouth.

ww February 28, 2008 - 8:43am



Turn back to the Constitution - and
READ it.

Rick February 28, 2008 - 1:31pm



"...cunning, baffling, powerful."

ww February 28, 2008 - 1:33pm

No need to prove it - it's already been proven - you just haven't been paying attention, or have kept your head in the sand. But what else is new?

Nominay February 28, 2008 - 3:58pm

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