No re-litigating the primary

I post this because I personally disagree with Jay. I may be in “wishful thinking” land in preferring Saunders over Clinton. Pragmatically, I believe Saunders more electable, and can win over Trump, see chart below.

Jay’s view:

When Sanders drops out and endorses Clinton, pragmatic progressives will do the same.

 

Now for the analysis:

This is a NYT chart, and the point currently being made is: Clinton only wins primaries against Saunders in states she cannot win in a general election.Clinton's Wins

 

 

Discern for oneself what the means in the General election, as my speculation could be taken for an attack on Clinton herself.

However, I’m not yet ready to embrace the theory she will be a better president than Trump, because I personally cannot trust the evidence (what there is) that Clinton will actually not pivot to the Right, so signing TPP and TTIP and TISA. After signatures you can kiss what currently remains of democracy worldwide goodbye – We’ll all be singing to the refrain of “Yes Boss”, or as I leaned the phrase, “Yes Bass” in apartheid South Africa. I perceive good futures on knuckling the forehead, too.

I do believe Trump will become the Republican nominee. I hope Trump would not sign TPP and TTIP and TISA. At least Trump’s said he is against those treaties, which pragmatically is a better position for me to support. As for the Torture and banning Muslims, we’ll have to be Pragmatic: Those memes have to be viewed in the context of of Drones, Wedding Parties, Iraq, Afghanistan, Lybia and Syria, Honduras, Nicaragua, Chile and others (It’s such a burden having goals of Empire and not goals of enlightenment.)

I do believe Trump’s vision of bringing jobs back to the US naive, because after reviewing my 2015 Pre-Tax filing accounting, I find my wife and son’s health insurance premiums to be about $12,000 per year, about the same as the sum of my mortgage interest and property taxes, $13,000. If I were a business manager I’d move business to a country where I can hire two employee’s for the cost of one employee’s health care in the US.

I also believe the pearl-clutching by the Republican establishment is due to their fear of Trump’s (long) enemies list. All the members of which will be purged from their positions of influence (for them that’s death sentence, because they have to retire from the scene and grow roses, and their asses will dry out due to the lack of kisses.)

Which reminds me of the Wagnerian Opera “Schadenfreude, O Schadenfreude…”

This post was read 1131 times.

About author View all posts

Synoia

13 CommentsLeave a comment

  • Best evidence based argument for Sanders that I’ve seen yet.

    With Trump as the Republican nominee I am pretty sanguine with regards to the Democratic nomination. I don’t think Trump stands a chance in the general election, and either Democratic candidate works for me. (Disclaimer: I don’t live in the US, so all I care about is some foreign policy sanity).

  • “Bernie Sanders is the rarest of of Washington animals, a completely honest person.
    If he’s motivated by anything other than a desire to use his influence to protect people who can’t protect themselves, I’ve never seen it”

    Matt Taibbi

    “Integrity can’t be bought” – Bernie Sanders

    • It is an ergodic system. Past performances are no predictor of the future.

      See also http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/ergodic, item 2

      While that seem a glib, dismissive answer, the underlying math is very complex, I don’t understand it all, and am convinced there is an intersection between chaotic and ergodic systems, especially human systems.

      Actually expressing these in a mathematical form is beyond both my abilities and years. We need some 20 year old math genius to pull these together.

      It is a combination of:

      Past performance does not consistently predict future success, happenstance and Murphy’s (US) , Sod’s (UK) law.

      • Pre-primary general election match-up polls are well-nigh useless. It does not speak to Sanders’ electability. The premise of the post is misleading.

          • Trump only has the support of a third of Republicans. His approval rating among other groups is terrible. He won’t turn out the vote.

            Most Sanders supporters will vote for Hillary, even in a fraction won’t.

            She has more primary votes than Trump.

            • Trade is the key:

              My view: In a Trump–Sanders contest, Sanders gets at least half of these voters. In a Trump–Clinton contest, Trump gets them all.

              Something for the “free”-trading leaders of the Democratic Party to consider as they move toward the convention and the 2016 fate that awaits them.

Leave a Reply