I was traveling last week and unable to post on Friday so I missed posting on the first U.S. reports about the Flu outbreak in Mexico on Friday. Sorry about that.

A travel warning to Mexico has been issued. The peso and Mexico's stock market are taking a beating but most Mexicans are reporting to work today.

Don't miss Ian Welsh's HuffPo piece on the economics of a pandemic. Also recommended is Elaine Supkis' piece describing her experience with the Hong Kong Flu of 1968.

David Kirby points a finger at the likely incubator of the swine flu in Mexico, industrial hog farms:

In the last several years, U.S. hog conglomerates have opened giant swine CAFOs south of the border, including dozens around Mexico City in the neighboring states of Mexico and Puebla. Smithfield Foods also reportedly operates a huge swine facility in the State of Veracruz. Many of these CAFOs raise tens of thousands of pigs at a time. Cheaper labor costs and a desire to enter the Latin American market are drawing more industrialized agriculture to Mexico all the time, wiping out smaller, traditional farms, which now account for only a small portion of swine production in Mexico.

There's already a fairly alarmist report in the WaPo about breakdowns in communication between the U.S. and Mexican governments with a false implication that the outbreak could have been contained in Mexico.

Effect Measure puts the smackdown on that canard and also points out a very real source of danger -- GOP obstructionism blocking key appointments by Obama:

The idea that flu could be contained at the source was always a WHO pipe dream. Their flu people knew it couldn't be done but WHO suggested it might just be possible anyway. Now they see the bitter fruit of this. There is another relevant fact that should be mentioned here. CDC is an agency on organizational hold, with an Acting Director. As public health professionals they are doing a heroic job, but they depend on DHHS, of which they are a part, for building government-to-government relationships. Those relationships suffered badly during the Bush years, with the result that Mexico had a better and more comfortable connection with Canada than the US. So why hasn't the Obama administration righted the problem? Because, among other things, there is still no Secretary of DHHS. Obama's nominee, the highly capable administrator Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, has had her confirmation held up by Republican ideologues playing abortion politics.

Here's a quick take on what we're dealing with from the Washington Post:

The question of who contracts and ultimately dies from this virus has become a matter of central concern in Mexico. And the answers that are beginning to emerge as the death toll rises have been ominous. Relatively young adults, presumably among the population's most healthy, have been the first to succumb. Sunday afternoon, Mexico placed the death toll at 86, and a Health Ministry official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said all the dead were ages 25 to 50. The ministry later raised the toll to 103.
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Fifteen people in Mexico City who are suspected to have died from the virus were 25 to 37 years old, Ebrard said in a radio interview Sunday.

The high proportion of young adults among the fatalities is one of several mysteries about this virus. The same pattern emerged during the 1918-1919 Spanish influenza epidemic, which killed at least 50 million people, and it remains unexplained in that case as well.

One theory is that the virus triggers an excessively aggressive immune response that destroys the throat and lung tissue. Young adults, with the most robust immune systems, may be especially at risk.

The greatest concentration of cases and deaths have been in Mexico City, the surrounding state of Mexico, and the state of San Luis Potosi to the north. Health Secretary José Ángel Córdova said 30 suspected swine flu cases are spread across 17 other states.
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Even though there is no known vaccine for humans for this strain of swine flu -- which combines genetic material from more common types of pig, bird and human flus -- Mexican officials have stressed that it is curable. President Felipe Calderón said Sunday that of the 1,324 patients with flulike symptoms as of Saturday, 929 have been treated and released from the hospital.

Mexican officials said there is no shortage of antiviral medication. The difference between who lives and dies seems largely linked to how quickly patients receive treatment, officials said.

Comments from Mexican citizens submitted to the BBC tell a different story than the official line (HT Effect Measure):

I'm a specialist doctor in respiratory diseases and intensive care at the Mexican National Institute of Health. There is a severe emergency over the swine flu here. More and more patients are being admitted to the intensive care unit. Despite the heroic efforts of all staff (doctors, nurses, specialists, etc) patients continue to inevitably die. The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses. It is a great fear among the staff. The infection risk is very high among the doctors and health staff.

There is a sense of chaos in the other hospitals and we do not know what to do. Staff are starting to leave and many are opting to retire or apply for holidays. The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks. It is a shame and there is great fear here. Increasingly younger patients aged 20 to 30 years are dying before our helpless eyes and there is great sadness among health professionals here.
Antonio Chavez, Mexico City

The truth is that it is very strange, what we are living through here. The streets are empty, we are all staying in our houses. People are only going out to the hospitals, drugstores and to buy food. The great majority have their mouths covered. Concerts, festivals, masses have all been cancelled, the football matches have all been played behind closed doors. On the television and radio, every commercial break contains information on the symptoms, saying that if you have them to go to the doctor at once. Although we have been told to go to work as normal on Monday, I am worried because I am employed at a company where there are many people and believe that it could be highly contagious. They say on the news that the cases that are most critical involve people aged 20 to 50.
Nallely T, State of Mexico

It shouldn't surprise anyone that funding in preparation for a pandemic outbreak was a political casualty during the stimulus fight:

When House Appropriations Committee chairman David Obey, the Wisconsin Democrat who has long championed investment in pandemic preparation, included roughly $900 million for that purpose in this year's emergency stimulus bill, he was ridiculed by conservative operatives and congressional Republicans.

...

But former White House political czar Karl Rove and key congressional Republicans -- led by Maine Senator Susan Collins -- aggressively attacked the notion that there was a connection between pandemic preparation and economic recovery.

David Kirby expands his argument that industrial hog farms (owned by American companies of course) could be the source of the outbreak:

Mexican newspapers have been reporting for weeks that residents living near Granjas Carroll's massive hog facility at La Gloria are falling ill with severe upper respiratory diseases. One five-year-old girl in the village just tested positive for swine flu - the bodies of two more children who died recently are being exhumed.

According to an April 5 article in La Jornada newspaper, "Clouds of flies emanate from the lagoons where Granjas Carroll discharges the fecal waste from its hog barns - as well as air pollution that has already caused an epidemic of respiratory infections in the town."

More than 400 people had already been treated for respiratory infections, and more than 60 percent of the town's 3,000 residents had reported getting sick, the paper said. State officials disputed that claim, and said the illnesses were caused by cold weather and dust in the air.

The problems began in early March, when many neighbors of the hog CAFO (confined animal feeding operation) became sick with colds and flu that quickly turned into lung infections, causing local health officials to impose a "sanitary cordon" around the area and begin a mass program of vaccination and home fumigation.

"According to state agents of the Mexican Social Security Institute, the vector of this outbreak are the clouds of flies that come out of the hog barns, and the waste lagoons into which the Mexican-US company spews tons of excrement," La Jornada reported. "Even so, state and federal authorities paid no attention to the residents, until today."

Maggie Koerth-Baker, writing at BoingBoing.net is skeptical of the factory farm angle:

So I know that Grist, and a couple of other places, are promoting the theory that the genesis of H1N1 swine flu can be tied directly to factory farming practices. I'm no fan of factory farming, and it definitely has some associated public health dangers, but I'm not yet convinced that this one of them.
First, according to the experts I've spoken to, nobody currently knows specifically where H1N1 swine flu comes from. In fact, the information we're getting out of Mexico seems to have a lot of holes in it, to the point that (as of my writing this) nobody even knows how many supposed swine flu cases/deaths are actually caused by swine flu or what percentage of people infected with swine flu are dying in that country. As Pekosz told me, there's no evidence one way or the other.
Second, while past pandemic viruses have had connections to farming, they haven't necessarily been connections to factory farming; but rather small-scale (and, particularly, subsistence level) farming, where animals of several species share close quarters. This is important for the H1N1 swine flu. Pigs seem to provide a particularly good environment for flu viruses to get their gene-reassorting watusi on. But to get that pig/avian/human mix, the most likely candidate would be a pig who'd had close contact with both people and poultry. As I understand it, it's less likely that a human who works with pigs and chickens separately could pass the avian virus to a pig. And, factory farms, which tend to be single-species outfits, aren't really great places for pigs and chickens to interact.
Now, I can see some ways around that. Say, if the pigs were sleeping or wallowing in muck that was contaminated with chicken feces or something. I could also be interpreting the facts incorrectly here. But from what I've read, and from the researchers I've spoken with, it seems more likely that H1N1 would have been created in the communal barn of a small farm, than in a giant hog-only factory farm shed.