...military and intelligence establishment is so unassailable. My read is that they've taken some reasonably serious kicks of late - and bluntly they well deserve it. For all their posturing about their grasp of grand strategy I have to say that they look to me to have sucked pretty bad.

The thing that I would love to have more insight into is how much anti-establishmentarian sympathy there is for the more Islamist members of the military. The old scotch drinkers I can relate to - the guys that came up under Zia and those that cut their teeth after the intervention in Afghanistan, they worry me.

“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

Report warns of Pakistan's younger generation losing faith in democracy

• Swelling population 'risks demographic disaster'
• Cynicism and disaffection among disturbing findings

* Declan Walsh in Islamabad
* guardian.co.uk, Friday 20 November 2009 19.28 GMT

Pakistan faces a "demographic disaster" if its leaders fail to invest in a youth population that is disturbingly cynical about democracy, has greatest faith in the military and is resentful of western interference, according to a study published tomorrow.

The report, commissioned by the British Council, says the nuclear-armed country is at a critical point, with its population forecast to swell by 85 million, from its current 180 million, over the next two decades.

"Pakistan is at a crossroads," said David Steven, an academic who helped write the report. "It can harness the energy of that generation, and collect a demographic dividend. But if they fail to get jobs and are poorly educated, it faces a demographic disaster."

Pakistan has never had such a high proportion of young adults: half of its population are aged under 20, with two-thirds still to reach their 30th birthday. But they are deeply divided about how the country should be run.

Only a third believe democracy is the best system of governance, one third support sharia law, while 7% think dictatorship is a good idea. Fasi Zaka, a radio DJ and commentator who helped launch the report, called it a snapshot of a "lost generation".

"They don't believe in anything firmly. Maybe they want sharia law, maybe they want democracy. It's all over the place. But despite this there's a lot of patriotism. So it's not a lost cause." Summing up the contradictions, he said young Pakistanis "don't like this country, but they love it".

The report makes sobering reading for the country's civilian leaders. Of the 1,200 young people surveyed for the report's opinion poll, 60% said they had faith in the military as an institution while only one in 10 voted for President Asif Ali Zardari's beleaguered government.

Several respondents complained of endemic corruption, an issue that has dogged Zardari. "Democracy or dictatorship, it doesn't affect me. I get paid regardless of who is in power," said Mian Muhammad Bilal, a 26-year-old civil servant.

Zardari is under heavy pressure with plunging ratings, a hostile media and persistent rumours of an impending "soft" military coup to displace him from the presidency.

A media adviser, Farahnaz Ispahani, said the cynicism about democracy was a product of Pakistan's history of dictatorship. "Only if a civilian government is allowed to finish its term will the youth trust in democracy," she said.

Steven, a research fellow at New York University, warned that Pakistan risked creating a giant underclass more prone to extremism and violence. "The country is going through a massive transformation in a global economy where resources are more scarce. It's a big challenge."

The findings were a "wake-up" call for western donors who only see Pakistan through the prism of terrorism, he said. "The US spent $12.3bn (£7.4bn) in Pakistan between 2002 and 2008 of which 70% went to the military. But it has not generated any security," he said.

Many young Pakistanis are "passionate believers" in education, the report notes, but are let down by terrible facilities. Pakistan's state education system is riddled with "ghost schools" – essentially institutions which exist only on paper due to rampant corruption – crumbling infrastructure and under-motivated teachers. A quarter of the survey respondents were illiterate.

"We can't move forward without education," said Habiba Younis, an 18-year-old student in her final year of secondary studies at Rawalpindi. "That's the reason for misconceptions like fundamentalism. It's something very tragic for our nation."

The report reflects a wider pessimism driven largely by Taliban violence. The number of Pakistanis who believe their country is headed in the "wrong direction" rose from under half in 2006 to about 80% today, according to another survey by the International Republican Institute.

The British report, Pakistan – the Next Generation, uncovers deep-rooted hostility towards western policies. Today a suspected US drone strike killed eight people in North Waziristan as the CIA director, Leon Panetta, visited leaders in Islamabad.

"The war on terror … has gone a long way to isolate Pakistani youth from the rest of the world," said one of those surveyed. "Stop treating us like an uncivilised bunch of hooligans who don't know anything," wrote another.

At core, the report speaks to an unresolved ideological struggle about what sort of country Pakistan should be.

"Sixty-two years back there was a nation in search of a land," one young person told researchers. "At present there is a piece of land in search of a nation."

By Saeed Shah | McClatchy Newspapers

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — The Pakistani government has some advice the Obama administration may not want to hear as it contemplates sending additional U.S. troops to neighboring Afghanistan: Negotiate with Taliban leaders and restrain India.

Pakistan embraces U.S. efforts to stabilize the region and worries that a hasty U.S. withdrawal would create chaos, but Pakistani officials worry that thousands of additional American soldiers and Marines would send Taliban forces retreating into Pakistan, where they're not welcome.

Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani's office said Friday that he told visiting CIA Director Leon Panetta of "Pakistan's concerns relating to the possible surge of the U.S. and ISAF forces in Afghanistan which may entail negative implications for the situation in Baluchistan," the Pakistani province that borders Afghanistan to the south.

The Pakistanis' advice is almost diametrically opposed the strategy outlined by Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the U.S. military commander in Afghanistan: Don't send additional forces to protect Afghan cities, but send them to outposts along the Pakistani border — where McChrystal has withdrawn troops.

It's just one example of how Pakistan, a critical U.S. ally in the struggle against Islamist extremists and a major recipient of American military aid, continues to deal differently with the violence that threatens not only the U.S.-backed government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, but also impoverished, nuclear-armed Pakistan.

The two countries' divergent views of the threat posed by Islamist extremists, and the Obama administration's efforts to press Pakistan to move against groups that menace Afghanistan have produced strains between the two countries and between Pakistan's civilian government and its powerful military and Inter Services Intelligence agency — and a growing drumbeat of Pakistani allegations about alleged nefarious CIA activities in Pakistan.

"The Pakistanis say some things in public — often for reasons related to internal politics, it seems — that they don't focus on in private," said a senior U.S. intelligence official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because intelligence matters are classified. "That's not to say that we see eye-to-eye on everything behind closed doors, but both sides realize that — whatever the disagreements of the moment might be — the long-term partnership is essential. After all, Pakistani contributions to counterterrorism since 9/11 have been decisive, and our government recognizes that."

Instead of escalating the war in Afghanistan, however, top Pakistani officials are pressing the administration to try to negotiate a political settlement with top Taliban commanders that would allow the U.S. to exit Afghanistan.

Pakistani officials argue that that such a negotiating strategy can't work unless the rebel leadership is involved, right up to Jalaluddin Haqqani, the head of the most dangerous insurgent faction, and Mullah Mohammed Omar, the one-eyed founder of the Afghan Taliban and Osama bin Laden's ally and host.

Because Pakistan is a longtime patron of the Taliban and of the Haqqani network, Pakistani officials think they could broker a deal to reduce Afghan President Hamid Karzai to a figurehead leader and divide power between the Pashtun Taliban and Afghanistan's Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara minorities.

U.S. and some Pakistani officials, however, are skeptical, arguing that the Taliban have little incentive to negotiate when their strength and sway in Afghanistan is growing and public and international support for the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan is waning.

Najmuddin Shaikh, formerly the top bureaucrat in the Pakistani Foreign Ministry, said the Taliban could be brought to the negotiating table if they saw a greater American military commitment and more investments in the Afghan countryside.

"It's a little premature for talks (with the Taliban)," Shaikh said. "There has to be a change in the ground situation, things happening in the next six to eight months that shows the 'ink spots' strategy (McChrystal's idea of protecting Afghan population centers) is taking hold, that some foot soldiers are being weaned away, then talks become possible."

Nevertheless, behind the scenes talks with mid-level Taliban officials already have begun, and Pakistani officials think they could rapidly accelerate now that Karzai has begun his second term.

"We've already been talking to them (the Taliban)," said a senior Pakistani official in Islamabad, who couldn't be named because of the sensitivity of the issue. "If the U.S. helps the process, some arrangements can be worked out for political reconciliation. I'm not for a moment suggesting that it's an easy task, but otherwise you will be fighting these people for the next hundred years."

The United States and other NATO forces also favor talking to some Taliban, but they focus on "non-ideological" insurgents who can be peeled away, partly through bribery. Retired British general Graeme Lamb was appointed for this task in August, but so far the effort has produced little success.

"The Americans have wasted a lot of time over this 'moderate Taliban' idea. It is never going to pan out. It misunderstands the Taliban phenomenon," said Simbal Khan, an analyst at Institute of Strategic Studies, a policy institute funded by the Pakistani government. "If you try to break off elements with cash, they'll take your money and still fight you."

The Pakistani military and ISI still consider archrival India, not militant Islam, the main threat, and unlike U.S. officials, Pakistani officials distinguish between the Taliban and other militant groups whose target is Afghanistan and groups that are seeking to impose their extreme brand of Islam on Pakistan.

Pakistan has for eight years declined to mount any serious pursuit of bin Laden and the other top al Qaida leaders who sought shelter in Pakistan after the 2001 U.S. invasion drove them out of Afghanistan.

Pakistan also has quietly tolerated the presence of Mullah Omar, who U.S. officials said is based near the Baluchistan city of Quetta and shuttling between there and Karachi, Pakistan's largest city and a key financial and logistics center for Islamic militants. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because intelligence on terrorist groups is classified. Officially, Pakistan denies that bin Laden and Omar are in the country.

Pakistan's laissez-faire attitude toward al Qaida, Omar and Afghan militants such as Haqqani doesn't appear likely to change in the face of stepped-up American pressure.

U.S. national security adviser James Jones last week delivered a message to Gilani and other Pakistani officials from President Barack Obama, who urged Pakistan to take action against Afghan militant groups operating from Pakistani soil.

The Pakistanis politely told Jones that Pakistan is doing all it can, and that it must concentrate on groups that are attacking Pakistan, rather than those that are a threat in Afghanistan. Gilani's office said he told Jones that Pakistan's "forces were over-stretched because of continuous tension on the eastern border" with India.

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