Calderon Getting Diminishing Returns from Deploying the Military in Mexico's Drug War


Stratfor.com says that there is increasing pressure to reduce the role of the military:

Legislative leaders from both main opposition parties complained last week that Calderon’s approach has unnecessarily weakened the armed forces, while the leader of the Mexican senate — a member of Calderon’s National Action Party — said the legislature will examine the role of the military and seek to balance the needs of the cartel war with the civil rights of the Mexican people. In addition, the president of Mexico’s supreme court has said the court plans to review the appropriateness of military jurisdiction in cases involving citizen complaints against soldiers.

They also discuss the diminishing returns that Calderon is getting from ever increasing military deployments:

Even though the Mexican military was not designed or trained for law-enforcement duties or securing urban areas, it had been generally successful in improving the security situation of the smaller cities to which it had been deployed throughout 2007. But by early 2008, when soldiers were first deployed to Ciudad Juarez en masse, it became clear that they simply had too much on their plate. As the city’s security environment deteriorated disastrously during the second half of 2008, the military presence there proved incapable of controlling it, an outcome that has continued even today, despite the unprecedented concentration of forces that are currently in the city.

Then there's this frightening bit:

While the military has certainly not acted flawlessly in its operations and undoubtedly bears guilt for some offenses, these complaints are not completely reliable records of the military’s performance. For one thing, many cartel enforcers routinely dress in military-style clothing and travel in vehicles painted to resemble military trucks, while many also have military backgrounds and operate using the tactics they were taught. This makes it difficult for residents, during the chaos of a raid, to distinguish between legitimate soldiers and cartel members. More important, however, is the fact that the Mexican drug cartels have been keenly aware of the threat posed to them by the military and of the controversy associated with the military’s involvement in the cartel war. For this reason, the cartels have been eager to exploit this vulnerability by paying residents to protest the military presence and spread reports of military abuses.

The drug war in Mexico is everything Phillip K. Dick prophesized in A Scanner Darkly -- the cops and the narcos are so intertwined I wonder if they can even keep straight who is who and when they're playing which role.

Regardless, Calderon seems to be running out of time to keep using his blunt force trauma approach. I wonder if there will be another military occupation of a Mexican city comparable to what was tried and failed in Juarez.


Nat Wilson Turner July 29, 2009 - 6:56pm
( categories: Mexico )

NY Times

Americans looking for health insurance coverage might want to try Mexico City, where the local government announced a plan to lure tourists by offering what is billed as free medical care in case of accidents or disease.

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Nat Wilson Turner July 29, 2009 - 7:16pm

Bloomberg

Mexico’s central bank said the economy will contract at almost double the pace it previously forecast and said measures to strengthen public finances will help speed up a recovery.

The economy will shrink 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent this year, the bank said in a report today, compared with an April forecast for a maximum 4.8 percent decline. The economy shrank 10.5 percent to 11 percent in the second quarter amid the swine flu outbreak and shutdowns at auto plants, Manuel Ramos Francia, the bank’s chief economist, said at a news conference.

The bank urged the country to adopt measures to boost public finances, saying in its report that delaying such moves would “increase the vulnerability of the economy.” Mexico is seeking such changes after Standard & Poor’s cut its outlook on the country’s foreign debt to negative from stable in May.

“Our country’s capacity to get back on the path of sustainable growth will depend on the progress of structural reforms that encourage a more flexible and competitive economy,” the bank said.

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Nat Wilson Turner July 29, 2009 - 7:17pm

Dow Jones

Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) said Wednesday that it had found a new deepwater oil discovery in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

The independent Houston oil and gas producer said that the Vito exploration well, in the Mississippi Canyon area of the Gulf, encountered 250 net feet of oil pay. Senior Vice President for Exploration, Bob Daniels, said in a statement that Anadarko planned to drill two additional prospects in the same area, as well as evaluate the timing for an appraisal well to further explore the size of the Vito find.

The Vito well was drilled at a depth of 32,000 feet in more than 4,000 feet of water. Anadarko owns 20% of the prospect and acts as the operator. A Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB) unit owns 55% and a unit of Norwegian oil firm StatoilHydro (STO) owns a 25% stake. Shell will become the operator once the rig currently drilling the well is moved to Anadarko's Caesar/Tonga development in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

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Nat Wilson Turner July 29, 2009 - 7:18pm

Is sucking up a huge chunk of our budget. And a big part just goes to waste.

creativelcro July 29, 2009 - 7:51pm

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