National Security Examiner

So, is the never ending violence and mounting body count making Mexicans believe the government cannot win this war? According to the LA Times,

"In a new poll more than half of respondents said they believe the government is losing the war. Only 28% said it is winning, according to the survey, published Tuesday in the daily Milenio newspaper.

But is that the whole story? 80 percent of Mexicans still support the use of the army against the cartels, although almost an equal amount (76 percent) said violence has gotten worse since the army was deployed. These statistics showcase a long-term outlook amongst the Mexican population. Whereas the Tet offensive turned public support in the U.S. against the war, the recent wave of violence in Mexico seems unlikely to convince the Mexican public that its long-term safety and prosperity is advanced by giving up on the war against the narcos.

Furthermore, the effects of the $1.6 billion, three year U.S.-funded Merida Initiative have yet to be known since the program was only signed into law on June 30th, 2008. Funding for the first year totals $400 million, which will be used to purchase helicopters, surveillance aircraft, and other equipment; implement judicial reform; address human rights and rule of law issues; and implement training programs.

Many see the Merida Initiative as a Mexican version of Plan Colombia, which has been instrumental in the Colombian government's successes against the FARC over the past decade. Plan Colombia was first implemented in 2000 and took until 2007 to show true progress. It is likely the Merida Initiative will need a similar timeframe (as well as continued strong Mexican leadership like President Calderon has shown) to be successful.

So is the recent wave of violence a turning point in the drug war? Probably not - it's just more of the violence and instability that has plagued Mexico for the past three years.

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from the NYT covering the narco cartels regional control in Mexico and their drug markets in the U.S.

Nat Wilson Turner July 16, 2009 - 5:05pm

Americas Society

A drug cartel in Mexico fought back with a vengeance in recent days after authorities took a step forward in their battle against organized crime. On Friday, federal police arrested Arnaldo “La Minsa” Rueda Medina, a top-level kingpin active in a cartel known as “La Familia.” Bloodshed marked the next few days as gunmen attacked federal police stations, mostly in cities across Michoacan, the state where Rueda operated as a second in command for the cartel. The latest violence raised concerns that the arrest opened a pandora’s box of brutality. But the federal government said the attacks constituted short-lived acts of revenge and that it would not be intimidated by drug gangs. Officials also rejected any notion that they would give in to calls from La Familia calls suggesting negotiations.

The weekend’s cartel killings claimed 30 lives in 48 hours. The grisliest of the attacks involved the execution of a dozen federal officers, whose bodies were found on the side of a Michoacan road. The Los Angeles Times reports that, even though the rate of cartel murders has dropped since February, the latest offensive has stirred up a cartel “wasp nest” and Mexicans appear increasingly wary of the government’s ability to rein in organized crime and over accusations of human rights violations by military forces. The recent days’ killings led columnist Ciro Gómez Leyva to compare the synchronized, Hollywood-style nature of the attacks to the Tet Offensive launched during the Vietnam War in 1968.

But the federal government refuted the idea that the latest violence constitutes a point of no return. “The cartel violence will only last a few days,” said Mexican National Security spokesman Monte Alejandro Rubido García in an interview with MILENIO. He described the attacks as evidence of damage inflicted by Mexican forces on La Familia. After a man who identified himself as Servando ''La Tuta'' Gomez, leader of La Familia, called into a television station on July 15 to suggest negotiating a truce with authorities, the government came out against the idea. In a speech rejecting the idea of the federal government negotiating with criminals, Secretary of the Government Fernando Gómez Mont said: "For as much as they mask their actions with all types of explanations, these groups extort, threaten, kidnap, torture, and murder without scruples." The Mexican Senate backed the refusal to dialogue with the cartels. To underline the point, authorities dispatched additional troops to Michoacan Thursday.

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And why shouldnt the companies profit-- and heck- Mexico isnt footing the bill so alternative-

take that money- build a wall with armament to protect the border--send em a note saying good luck

Renew America

Now that the U.S. has done away with the term "War on Drugs" according to the government a new approach is being developed whereby the U.S. Government working with other governments plan to get to the root of the problem by dismantling transnational organized criminal groups, such as confronting the Mexican Drug Cartels as criminal organizations, rather than simply responding to individual acts of criminal violence.

Pursued vigorously, and in coordination with the efforts of other U.S. Government agencies and with the full cooperation of other Governments like Mexico, the U.S. believes this strategy can and will neutralize the organizations causing the violence.

U.S. Government documents show that during a report to Congress this month by Lanny A. Breuer an assistant attorney general in the criminal division United States Department of Justice stated that "the department's strategy to systematically dismantle the Mexican drug cartels, which currently threaten the national security of our Mexican neighbors, pose an organized crime threat to the United States, and are responsible for the scourge of illicit drugs and accompanying violence in both countries. He begins by emphasizing the priority that this issue commands at the highest level of the department's leadership, including the U.S. Attorney General himself.

Most recently, on June 5th, in Albuquerque, New Mexico, Attorney General Holder, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Napolitano, and Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) Director Kerlikowske released President Obama's National Southwest Border Counternarcotics Strategy (Strategy), designed to stem the flow of illegal drugs and their illicit proceeds across the Southwest Border and to reduce associated crime and violence in the region.

This Strategy directs Federal agencies to increase coordination and information sharing with State and local law enforcement agencies, intensifies national efforts to interdict the southbound flow of weapons and bulk currency while stopping illicit contraband from being trafficked north, and calls for continued close collaboration with the Government of Mexico in efforts against the drug cartels. The Strategy is an important component of the Administration's national drug control policy and complements the Administration's comprehensive efforts to respond to threats along the border.

In his remarks on the Strategy, Attorney General Holder stated, "Drug trafficking cartels spread violence and lawlessness throughout our border region and reach into all of our communities, large and small." He further noted, "By focusing on increased cooperation between the U.S. and Mexican governments as well as enhanced communication within U.S. law enforcement agencies, the National Southwest Border Counternarcotics Strategy we introduce today provides an effective way forward that will crack down on cartels and make our country safer."

Another important component of the department's efforts to neutralize the powerful Mexican drug cartels is the Mérida Initiative, a partnership between the Government of Mexico and the United States. The Mérida Initiative presents new opportunities for expert collaboration on many fronts. With Mérida funded programs coordinated by the Department of State, the Department plans, among other things: (1) to place two experienced federal prosecutors in Mexico to work with their counterparts in prosecutorial capacity-building; (2) to assign a forensics expert in Mexico; (3) to assist Mexican law enforcement and our interagency partners in strengthening and developing vetted teams and task forces that can work with U.S. federal law enforcement agencies to attack the cartels across the range of their criminal conduct; (4) to advance fugitive apprehension with U.S. law enforcement agencies and extradition with our Criminal Division experts; (5) to assist Mexico in developing an asset management system to deal with the assets seized and forfeited in criminal cases; (6) to assist Mexican law enforcement and prosecutorial offices in strengthening their internal integrity; (7) to assist Mexican law enforcement officials and prosecutors in enhancing evidence collection, preservation and admissibility; and (8) to provide expert consultations on victim assistance and witness protection issues. At the same time, as an operational matter, the department continues to work closely with Mexico as it addresses the issue of cartel-related public corruption, including through investigative assistance.

Further the report goes on to say that the department's strategy to identify, disrupt, and dismantle the Mexican drug cartels has five key elements and supports the National Southwest Border Counternarcotics Strategy. First, the strategy employs extensive and coordinated intelligence capabilities. The Department pools information generated by our law enforcement agencies and federal, state and local government partners, and then uses the product to promote operations in the United States and to assist the efforts of the Mexican authorities to attack the cartels and the corruption that facilitates their operations. Second, through intelligence-based, prosecutor-led, multi-agency task forces that leverage the strengths, resources, and expertise of the complete spectrum of federal, state, local, and international investigative and prosecutorial agencies, the department focuses its efforts on investigation, extradition, prosecution, and punishment of key cartel leaders. As the department has demonstrated in attacking other major criminal enterprises, destroying the leadership and seizing the financial infrastructure of the cartels undermines their very existence. Third, the Department of Justice, in concerted efforts with the Department of Homeland Security, pursues investigations and prosecutions related to the trafficking of guns and the smuggling of cash and contraband for drug-making facilities from the United States into Mexico. Much of the violence and corruption in Mexico is fueled by these resources that come from our side of the border. Fourth, the department uses traditional law enforcement approaches to address the threats of cartel activity in the United States.

These threats include the widespread distribution of drugs on our streets and in our neighborhoods, battles between members of rival cartels on American soil, and violence directed against U.S. citizens and government interests. This component of the department's strategy will inevitably include investigations and prosecutions of U.S.-based gangs that forge working relationships with the Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs).

Fifth, the department prosecutes criminals responsible for federal crimes involving murder, trafficking, smuggling, money laundering, kidnapping and violence. The ultimate goals of these operations are to neutralize the cartels and bring the criminals to justice.

LA Times

Marking a gruesome new setback in the war on drug gangs, Mexican authorities said Tuesday that 12 people found tortured and fatally shot in the western state of Michoacan a night earlier were federal police officers.

Officials said the slayings were the work of La Familia, a Michoacan-based trafficking group that has carried out at least 10 attacks against federal police in the state since Saturday, when authorities captured an alleged leader of the group.

Monte Alejandro Rubido, a senior federal security official, said the 11 men and one woman were off duty when they were ambushed.

He said the killers left a message with the heap of bodies that threatened federal police.

Elsewhere, he said, authorities came upon two posters warning that police faced death if "they didn't leave or line up" with La Familia, a cult-like gang that U.S. officials say has fast become one of Mexico's strongest trafficking groups.

"The La Familia Michoacan cartel is known for its violence," Rubido said at a news conference.

"We shouldn't be surprised by this type of reaction," he said.

The officers' killings represent the government's worst loss of life in a single event since President Felipe Calderon declared an army-led crackdown against drug traffickers soon after taking office in December 2006. Eight federal police officers died in a shootout in the northwestern state of Sinaloa in May 2008.

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