Mexican Mid-Terms

Most of Mexico is voting today in federal elections that are widely seen as a referendum on President Felipe Calderon and his PAN party. Calderon has bet the house on a full-tilt "Drug War to the Death" strategy that has probably only increased the violence and chaos while doing little if anything to reduce the grip of the narcos on the Mexican economy and polity.

There's a big Wall Street Journal piece from Friday that merits some excerpts and analysis:

Until recent years, Mexican drug traffickers focused the bulk of their bribery efforts on law enforcement rather than politicians. Their increasing involvement in local politics -- in town halls and state capitals -- is a response, experts say, to the national-level crackdown, to changes in the nature of the drug trade itself and to the evolution of Mexico's young democracy.

Starting in 2000, a system of fiercely contested multiparty elections began to replace 71 years of one-party rule, the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI. "In this newly competitive, moderately democratic system, it takes serious money to run a political campaign," says James McDonald, a Mexico expert at Southern Utah University in Cedar City, Utah. "This has given the narcos a real entree into politics, by either running for office themselves or bankrolling candidates."

In addition, the gangs have evolved from simple drug-smuggling bands into organized-crime conglomerates with broad business interests, from local drug markets to extortion, kidnapping, immigrant smuggling and control of Mexico's rich market in knockoff compact discs. "There is more at stake than before. They need to control municipal governments," says Edgardo Buscaglia, a professor of law and economics at both Columbia University and Mexico's ITAM University.

That's all decent enough info, but the WSJ also slips in this bit of disinformation from the FBI, charges so dubious even the WSJ has to caveat them at the end:

According to a September 2007 intelligence assessment by the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, the governors of the states of Veracruz and Michoacán had agreements with the Gulf Cartel allowing free rein to that large drug-trafficking gang. In return, said the report, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, the cartel promised to reduce violence in Veracruz state and, in Michoacán, financed a gubernatorial race and many municipal campaigns across the state.

...

Lázaro Cárdenas Batel, the Michoacán governor from the leftist PRD party who was in the office when the FBI said the deal was made, says the allegation is "totally false." Mr. Cárdenas Batel, grandson of the former Mexican president for whom the port is named, said Mexican ports are controlled by federal agencies, so drug traffickers have nothing to gain from bribing state officials in connection with them.

His successor, the winner of the 2007 election, is Leonel Godoy, also of the PRD. He calls the FBI allegation "an infamy" with "not a shred of evidence or any proof," and said he had never met or cut deals with drug traffickers. Messrs. Cárdenas Batel and Godoy both say they had alerted authorities before the elections about the growing infiltration of drug traffickers in Michoacán.

None of the three men -- Messrs. Cárdenas Batel, Godoy and Herrera -- have been charged with any crime. U.S. intelligence documents have occasionally proved unreliable in the past.

I find it hilarious that the FBI is out there openly blaming PRD officials of being in the thrall of the narcos. Meanwhile, Amercian oil companies are watching these elections and realizing that their hopes of cutting deals with Calderon to get at the (rapidly diminishing) Mexican reserves are bleeding away:

A former energy minister, Calderon had hoped to overhaul the state-run energy sector to open the door to some foreign investment, possibly through strategic alliances with state oil monopoly Pemex, to reverse declining oil output. But few see such a reform possible in his second half-term.

We'll see how prescient all this gringo analysis turns out to be after the election results are in.

Meanwhile a wave of citizen cynicism is playing right into the PRI's hands. From the AP:

A growing citizens' movement disillusioned with the status quo is urging voters to make their ballots invalid by crossing out candidates' names, writing in fictitious ones, or leaving them blank. Others say they will simply not vote.

Antonio Baltazar, who runs an auto repair shop in Ciudad Hidalgo, in the western state of Michoacan, is one of the disgusted.

His town's mayor is in jail on charges of protecting drug traffickers. Baltazar said the candidates running now offer more of the same, and he intends to invalidate his ballot.

"I have to do something to express my anger," Baltazar said. "I'm not voting, because none of you convince me, you bunch of corrupt politicians."

Top electoral judge Maria Alanis said she fears abstention could reach 70 percent.

Activists hope the protest movement will force politicians to change the system.

"The biggest problem isn't crime, or unemployment, or even drug trafficking," said Rogelio Narvaez of the citizen's group Fuerza Mexico. "It is that people no longer have any confidence" in politicians.

From Micheal Collins and Kenneth Thomas:

As Mexico approaches the July 5th mid-term elections, the nation confronts two critical problems. An expanding an increasingly violent "war on drugs" threatens to convert Mexico into a narcostate. This will lead to the inevitable compromise of the members of all political parties. An expanding economic crisis in the wake of NAFTA and the global financial situation, threatens private companies, the Central Bank, and government programs -- as well as the income and employment of most citizens. Rising social inequality and a workforce crisis mean that many, perhaps most, Mexicans live in conditions parallel to those of sub-Saharan Africa.

Disenchantment and dismay reign. The volatile political situation foreshadows a change in the air. Close to 80% of Mexicans voted in mid-term elections in the 90's. Tomorrow, turnout is expected to be less that 50%. An attempted "no confidence" vote on the government looms. Members of the various parties engage in what has been called "fratricide." And there is talk -- talk which hearkens back to the Revolution of 1910 -- that it's time for the people to ignore the major parties and take matters into their own hands.

Nat Wilson Turner July 5, 2009 - 1:30pm

Nat Wilson Turner's diary | printer friendly version |

( categories: Mexico )

Mexicos elections a test for Calderons drug war

President Felipe Calderon and his drug war will get their biggest test of support yet when Mexico holds midterm elections Sunday amid growing frustration over rampant cartel violence and a shrinking economy.

Calderon's National Action Party, or PAN, has been campaigning as the one party tough on crime and drug trafficking ahead of the elections for 500 congressional seats, 565 mayors and six governorships.

But many Mexicans are fed up with the violence that has left decapitated bodies on the streets from Pacific resorts to small mountain villages _ and that mounting frustration could lead to a comeback for the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI.

The PRI ruled Mexico for 71 years before losing the presidency to the PAN in 2000. Drug trafficking then was pervasive but never the target of a nationwide crackdown. Since Calderon launched his drug fight after taking office in 2006, more than 10,800 people have been killed by drug-related violence.

Calderon's party has run ads accusing the PRI of ignoring the problem for many years, or worse, being complicit in it, a campaign tactic that angered the PRI and may make it less likely to negotiate with Calderon on future reforms.

Polls published in Mexico's leading newspapers before the campaign officially closed July 1 showed voters likely to give PRI candidates slightly more seats in Congress than the PAN. The PAN currently holds 206 seats in the lower house, nearly double the PRI's 106.

Nat Wilson Turner July 5, 2009 - 1:53pm

FACTBOX: Mexico's Calderon faces mid-term setback

Reuters

Following are five facts about Mexican President Felipe Calderon, 46, whose conservative party is set to be knocked into second place in Congress in mid-term elections on Sunday as he battles with a crippling economic downturn and rampant drug gang violence.

* A dour but determined former lawyer, Calderon has been in power for the conservative National Action Party, or PAN, since late 2006 after narrowly winning an election over left-wing firebrand Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who set up protest camps in the capital for weeks to challenge the result.

* Calderon has launched an army-led war on drug gangs and made curbing cartel violence the centerpiece of his presidency. His crackdown, using thousands of troops, has put a string of traffickers behind bars but cartel turf wars still kill hundreds of people each month.

* The Mexican president was the first foreign leader that Barack Obama met after winning the U.S. presidential election last year. They discussed border security, immigration, the NAFTA trade pact and Mexico's drug war at talks in Washington in January.

* Calderon has pleased foreign investors by pushing tentative energy, tax, pension, justice and security reforms through Congress, despite the PAN's lack of a majority in the lower house. But the proposals were often watered down by the centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI.

Nat Wilson Turner July 5, 2009 - 2:00pm

FACTBOX: Mexico to elect new lower house, governors

Reuters
Mexico will elect a new lower house of Congress, six state governors and hundreds of mayors in mid-term elections on Sunday.

President Felipe Calderon's party is seen heading for defeat, hurting his ability to push economic reforms through Congress.

Here are some facts about the election:

CONGRESS

Voters will choose the 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house. Three hundred are elected directly by voters. The other 200 are selected by parties, which win seats based on their share of the total vote.

The opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, is seen leaping into first place from third, replacing President Felipe Calderon's conservative National Action Party, or PAN, as the biggest force in the lower house.

Most opinion polls have shown the PRI ahead of the PAN in recent days by around 5 percentage points.

The centrist PRI currently holds 106 seats, while the PAN has 206. The center-left Party of the Democratic Revolution, or PRD, is seen coming in a distant third.

GOVERNORS

Voters will also elect governors in the states of Campeche, Colima, Queretaro, Nuevo Leon, San Luis Potosi and Sonora. Queretaro and San Luis Potosi are currently governed by the PAN and the rest by the PRI.

Nat Wilson Turner July 5, 2009 - 2:01pm

4 Bodies Found in Mexico, 3 Without Heads

Mexican authorities say police have found the bodies of four people killed in apparent drug violence, three of them decapitated.

A Mexico state prosecutor's official says three decapitated bodies and a severed head were discovered Thursday in two different parts of the state. The official declined to be identified in accordance with department policy.

A fourth body was found at a ranch in the western state of Michoacan.

And a second severed head turned up in a plastic bag in the southern state of Guerrero. It was not clear whether either head belonged to any of the decapitated victims in Mexico state.

Mexico's powerful cartels often decapitate their victims. Drug violence has cost more than 10,800 lives since late 2006.

Nat Wilson Turner July 5, 2009 - 2:02pm

Indictment reveals cartel's inner workings

Nearly two years ago Mexican soldiers acting on what they said was an anonymous tip seized more than 11 tons of cocaine being unloaded by Gulf Cartel members at a warehouse near the eastern coastal city of Tampico.

At the time, Mexican media reported that it was the country's largest cocaine seizure to date.

But according to documents filed in federal court in Washington, D.C., last month in a case against 19 high-ranking members of the Gulf Cartel and its one-time enforcement arm the Zetas, authorities were monitoring phone conversations for months among the cartel members organizing that cocaine shipment from Colombia.

The bust was a big score for Mexican President Felipe Calderon's cartel crackdown and evidence of the cooperation between anti-drug efforts in the U.S. and Mexico.

A Justice Department spokesman reached before the start of the holiday weekend said those familiar with the case were not immediately available to comment.

Stephen Meiners, a Latin America analyst with Stratfor, a global intelligence company, said that the U.S. may have shared the intercepted phone call with Mexican authorities but not had the details of the specific location and time.

"It may have been one piece of the puzzle," combined with an anonymous tip to Mexican authorities, he said.

From June 2007 until the cocaine arrived in October, Miguel Trevino Morales, the Zetas' second in command, prepared for the massive load with Gulf Cartel members Samuel Flores Borrego and Juan Reyes Mejia Gonzalez, according to a superseding indictment filed June 9.

Nat Wilson Turner July 5, 2009 - 2:03pm

ANNUL THE VOTE - Voto Nulo strikes!

check it there was some kind of campaign to "annul the vote" in mexico. it turns out a good little concept project went viral & snowballed ;-D

VotosNulos.com

TIME MAGAZINE: But the campaign for Mexico's midterm elections that is getting the most media attention is promising nothing at all and urging people to vote for nobody.

Dubbed the voto en blanco, or "blank vote," the curious movement emerged on blogs and in YouTube videos when campaigns kicked off last month. Since then it has snowballed, with prominent intellectuals and several politicians themselves joining its ranks. Its simple message: the whole political system stinks, so just draw one big cross on the ballot sheet on July 5, when the country has to choose the federal Senate and 500-seat lower House, six governors and hundreds of state and municipal offices. "Voting for the least bad candidate is like buying the least rotten fruit," says Jose Antonio Crespo, a well-known historian backing the movement. "I prefer to leave a note saying, 'Hey. All your fruit is rotten. I'll come back next time and I hope you have something fresh and edible.' "

A bunch of guerilla video projection & other tactical medias went down. see

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