Last Trip To The Well For Iran?

Israel’s Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman says that next month’s talks between the P5+1 nations and Iran will be Iran’s “last chance”. In the US, a key advisor agrees.

Suzanne Maloney, a former State Department official who still briefs US policymakers on Iran, told an audience Monday at the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank, that pressure on US President Barack Obama and/or Israeli leaders to take military action will grow if negotiations fail to create a sustained process for dialogue.

”œOdds are we’ll make it through this year,” said Maloney, who is also a senior fellow at the Saban Center at Brookings Institution. ”œThe time frame for concerns about war have shifted from April-May to early 2013” ”“ a reference to published reports that Israel might strike Iran’s nuclear facilities this spring.

Maloney added, however, that by next year, ”œthere will be renewed pressure on the president because of the statements he has made and statements by [Israeli Defense Minister] Ehud Barak and [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu.”

The oft-noted reality that neither the US nor Israeli intelligence communities thinks Iran has made a decision to push for a nuke isn’t going to matter, apparently. Nor will the IAEA’s oft-reported conclusion that they’ve seen no real signs of a concerted attempt towards weaponization. Israel’s real problem is that even a “Japan Option” for Iran constrains its ability to do things like invade Lebanon – it knows that there is no real “existential threat”. The US has backed itself into a corner of Israel’s making, to Iran’s detriment. After almost a decade of ‘will we, won’t we” the game is coming to an end; we’re now in a position of hoping Iran will be the adult in the room if war is to be averted.

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Steve Hynd

Most recently I was Editor in Chief of The Agonist from Feb 2012 to Feb 2013. My blogging began at Newshoggers and I’ve had the immense pleasure of working with some great writers there and around the web ever since, including at Crooks & Liars. I'm a late 40′s, Scottish ex-pat, now married to a wonderful Texan, with Honours in Philosophy from Univ. of Stirling, UK 1986. I worked most of life in business insurance industry (fire, accident, liability) including 12 years as a broker/underwriter/correspondent at Lloyd’s of London. Being from the other side of the pond, my political interests tend to focus on how US foreign policy affects the rest of the planet. Other interests include early and dark-ages British history, literature and cognitive philosophy/science.

7 CommentsLeave a comment

  • “Odds are we’ll make it through this year,” said Maloney,
    Yes, but because it’s a Presidential Election Year.
    You cannot simultaneously prepare for war and wage a presidential campaign…or something like that 🙂

    Maloney added, however, that by next year, “there will be renewed pressure on the president…”
    Yes, but because the election will be out of the way, and no matter which party wins, they are committed to go to war alongside Israel with Iran.

    AIPAC sez: “heads we win, tails you lose.”

    It must be nice to have the US President as a de-facto employee. And beyond that to know that no person shall be President if the USA unless they are willing to be that de-facto employee.

  • A new poll finds that only one in four Americans favors Israel conducting a military strike against Iran’s nuclear program. Seven in ten (69%) favor the US and other major powers continuing to pursue negotiations with Iran, a position that is supported by majorities of Republicans (58%), Democrats (79%) and Independents (67%).

    Consistent with this emphasis on a diplomatic approach, three in four say that the US should primarily act through the UN Security Council rather than acting by itself in dealing with the problem of Iran’s nuclear program.

    The last point, only 25% support helping Israel militarily, is a huge milestone. Mr. Lieberman should pay attention

    If Israel goes ahead with a military strike against Iran’s nuclear program and Iran retaliates, but not against American targets, only 25% favor the US providing military forces if Israel requests them (though support is a bit higher among Republicans at 41%). Another 14% favors the US providing diplomatic support only. Word Public, March 13

    The Money Party RSS

  • The zionist Foreign Minister Avigdor LIEberman just added another $1.00 or more per gallon to your summer’s driving pleasures. Keep rattling those sabers, pushing the sanctions and it will be more. The Washington – Wall St. – Tel Aviv axis of evil benefits greatly from your pockets. How dumb can the public get (rhetorically asking)? Willful ignorance is costly and the piper will be paid in wealth, blood and good will.

  • along the same lines, the tide of opinion and war mongering is turning. Not only in the US and Israel but also across the world.

    Always keep an open mind and a compassionate heart. ~ Phil Jackson

  • Not October exactly but at the best strategic moment Obama makes a grand deal (already worked out now with them) that collapses the price of gas in time for his re-election.

    Pie in the sky I know, and I know further that it is not his style.

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