Tehran | October 12

Tehran Times - Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani said he will not run in the upcoming presidential elections.

“I have no plans for this,” he told reporters on the sidelines of a meeting with the political associations of Fars province in Shiraz, southeast Iran.

Asked why the Majlis does not support the economic reform plan, Larijani said the plan should be studied carefully to see if it will breed more inflation.

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[Comment: Wonder if this means that the Principlists have decided who their candidate is. ~ JPD]

“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

Ali Akbar Dareini | Tehran | October 13

AP - Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami is hosting a high-profile conference uniting former U.N. chief Kofi Annan and other dignitaries this week — a rare visit seen as a reformist effort to position him for a comeback ahead of crucial elections.

Long an opponent of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Khatami has stepped up his criticism in recent months. And he is under increasing pressure from moderates to challenge Ahmadinejad in June's presidential elections.

Khatami's supporters believe a victory by a political moderate would help Iran out of international isolation.

But Khatami insists he has made no decision and reacted angrily when asked whether the high-profile visitors reflected backing for a possible presidential bid.

"This conference has nothing to do with presidential elections," Khatami chided reporters. "Don't undermine this conference by such speculations."

Reformists are eager to interpret the presence of former world leaders — including former Irish President Mary Robinson, and the former prime ministers of Italy and France, Romano Prodi and Lionel Jospin — as a gesture of support for Khatami.

[snip]

Iran's former vice president, Majid Ansari, also believes recent developments indicate Khatami is preparing to run.

"It is now more likely that Khatami will run for president next year," Ansari told The Associated Press.

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“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.” ~ Sir Ernest Benn

The Latter-Day Sultan
Power and Politics in Iran
By Akbar Ganji

From Council on Foreign Affairs , November/December 2008

Summary: The real decision-maker in Iran is Supreme Leader Khamenei not President Ahmedinejad. Blaming Iran's problems on President Ahmadinejad inaccurately suggests that Iran's problems will go away when Ahmadinejad does.

AKBAR GANJI is an Iranian journalist and dissident who was imprisoned in Tehran from 2000 to 2006 and whose writings are currently banned in Iran. This article was adapted from Nilou Mobasser's translation of a Farsi text by Ganji posted on www.akbarganji.org on February 6, 2008. Ganji's latest book is The Road to Democracy in Iran.

October 12 | Jpost.com

As the Iranian presidential elections approach, the reformist opposition to incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is failing to rally behind an agreed candidate.

Two of the leading candidates from the reformist camp are former parliament speaker Mehdi Karroubi and former head of the National Security Council Hasan Rouhani. The opposition parties are still trying to persuade former president Muhammad Khatami to run for office. Another possible candidate is former vice-president Muhammad Ali Najafi.

All four have previously expressed vehement opposition to Ahmadinejad's policies. Nevertheless, the lack of one agreed person to run for office will cause a division in votes coming from followers of the reformists.

Ahmadinejad's comments on the Holocaust are "irrelevant," Karroubi was quoted by German news agency Deutsche Presse Agentur on Sunday.

71-year-old Karroubi heads an opposition party called Etemad Melli (National Trust). In a press conference kicking off his campaign, Karroubi pointed to Ahmadinejad's economic and foreign policies as the main problems of the current administration that should be tackled.

On Ahmadinejad's preoccupation with the Holocaust and his reiterations that Israel be "wiped off the map," Karroubi said "We have so far paid a heavy price for the remarks by the president and gained absolutely nothing in return."

"I do not remember that anybody in Iran has ever [since the 1979 Islamic revolution] referred to the Holocaust except [Ahmadinejad]," he said.

"What we should care about is Palestine and Palestinians and how to help them, and not exposing the Holocaust and arguing about the number [of the Jewish victims in the Second World War] and whether it was registered as too much or too little," Karroubi said.

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

Ali Akbar Dahreini | October 15 | Yazd

AP - It all seemed like the stirrings of a major political challenge to Iran's firebrand President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: schoolchildren serenaded the popular reformist leader he replaced and a hometown audience chanted Wednesday: "Our next president."

Nearby, European dignitaries praised former President Mohammad Khatami for his cooperation during his eight years in office.

But it was a show without a clear finale: Was Khatami simply accepting accolades for the past or offering hints of a political encore?

Khatami has so far remained quiet on whether he'll seek a comeback in next June's presidential election as a powerful counterpoint to Ahmadinejad, whose blend of Western defiance and fiery nationalism stands in sharp relief to Khatami's tempered tones and appeals for global dialogue.

The shape of the race is far from clear, with only one minor candidate officially in the hunt. Yet a heavyweight like Khatami could be a booster shot to Iran's dispirited reform movement — rallying young voters and others troubled by the country's unraveling economy and increasing isolation over Iran's nuclear ambitions and Ahmadinejad's venom toward Israel.

"Khatami can't avoid running. Iran is at a critical point," said former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, one of Khatami's close advisers. "It is a historic situation. He has to run even if he doesn't want it personally."

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

Hossein Askari | October 17

Asia Times - While the Islamic Republic of Iran is always careful to flaunt its independence from the United States, its next presidential elections in March 2009 may be decided more by the result of the US elections than any other single factor.

Iran has its own unique electoral system. Serious candidates visit Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to seek his approval to run for office. The Supreme Leader, while not openly endorsing any candidate, will privately encourage or discourage candidates. Candidates who are discouraged invariably do not run for office. The candidates declare their candidacy a few months before the election as required by the Guardian Council for the vetting of candidates. The Guardian Council disqualifies many candidates, including all females. The eligible candidates campaign for a few weeks before the election. The serious candidates have already begun approaching the Supreme Leader.

The Supreme Leader's preferred candidate, while never publicized, receives significant support from the regime. The most important source of tangible support is from Iran's intelligence services, the most powerful entity in the land; and the support of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps is a close second. The support of these two entities embraces votes, access to the media and campaign donations. The actual balloting, while not completely free from irregularities, is quite clean by most Third World standards.

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

Tokyo | October 17

AFP - The mayor of Tehran, a possible contender for the Iranian presidency, said Friday his country would welcome talks with the United States as supported by White House contender Barack Obama.

Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a harsh critic of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, expressed hope that Obama would make good on calls to hold dialogue with Iran should the Democrat win the November 4 election.

"Senator Obama said in his presidential campaign that he would like to have such a relationship," Qalibaf said.

The mayor said any talks must be to the mutual benefit of the two countries and "without any sense of pressure."

"I think the world community, the Iranian society and the US society would benefit" from such talks, he told reporters during a visit to Tokyo at the invitation of the Japanese government.

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

Kamal Nazer Yasin | October 22

Eurasia Insight - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is risking his political future by striving to decouple his neo-conservative faction from long-standing domestic allies -- traditionalist clergy and small-scale merchants. If successful, Ahmadinejad would gain a greater degree of freedom of action in both the domestic and international arenas.

What Ahmadinejad might do with that added freedom is a topic that experts both inside and out of Iran are starting to grapple with. Many believe that a puffed-up Ahmadinejad would be a dangerous development for global security. But a few suggest that Ahmadinejad is interested in ditching his bombastic image in favor of a new persona as peacemaker.

Ahmadinejad’s recent moves to sever ties with traditionalists and so-called bazaaris are designed to position him for his presidential reelection bid in 2009. The most overt sign of this intention was the government’s attempt in early October to introduce a modest value-added tax on small shop owners, who collectively form the bazaari class. The bazaaris responded immediately with a crippling strike.

In September, Ahmadinejad also made a high-profile move to distance himself from the traditionalist faction. He did so by offering unqualified support to Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, Iran’s vice president for tourism, who caused a scandal by asserting that Iran was a friend of the Israeli people. Although Ahmadinejad has made highly publicized comments in the past that expressed a desire to wipe the state of Israel off the map, he resolutely defended Mashai’s statement, and rejected traditionalist calls for the vice president’s resignation. "We have no problem with people and nations," Ahmadinejad said during a September 18 news conference.

Earlier in the summer, Mohammad Norizadeh, a top presidential aide, signaled Ahmadinejad’s growing disenchantment with traditionalist clergy with public comments critical of supposed meddling by top clerics in political affairs. Norizadeh suggested such behavior sowed "confusion and anxiety" among the general public.

Since 1979, traditionalists and bazaaris have served as two of the central pillars of support for the Islamic revolution. But both factions, while playing a valuable role in securing the presidency for Ahmadinejad in 2005, are not considered to be part of his base. Ahmadinejad’s neo-conservative faction is composed mainly of elements connected to the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia.

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

Nasser Karimi | Tehran | October 26

AP - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has fallen ill due to exhaustion brought on by his heavy workload, the state-run news agency reported quoting a close associate.

The announcement comes as doubts have surfaced over whether Ahmadinejad, who faces strong criticism from opponents, will seek re-election next year.

Parliament member Mohammad Ismail Kowsari, an ally of the president, said late Saturday that Ahmadinejad was feeling under the weather because of the strain of his position, according to the news agency, IRNA.

"The president will eventually get well and continue his job," said Kowsari, who accompanied Ahmadinejad last month to the U.N. General Assembly. "Every human being can face exhaustion under such a workload."

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

Tehran | November 4

AFP - Iran's parliament on Tuesday voted to sack Interior Minister Ali Kordan for lying about his credentials and presenting a fake degree from a prestigious British university.

The scandal has been a major embarrassment to the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has defended Kordan throughout the controversy and who refused to appear in parliament for the impeachment.

Parliament speaker Ali Larijani said 188 MPs among the 247 present voted to impeach Kordan while 45 lawmakers were against the motion and 14 abstained.

"The impeachment was approved by parliament and he cannot be interior minister from now on," Larijani said in a speech carried live on state radio.

It was the 10th change in the 21-strong cabinet of Ahmadinejad, who had described Kordan as a "victim" and insisted he be allowed to remain in the job.

Under Iran's constitution the entire cabinet would have to be submitted to a new vote of confidence if half the ministers change.

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

Tehran | November 8

AFP - Iran’s confrontational attitude toward the rest of the world is costing the country dearly in lost trade and investment, according to a
letter signed by 60 economists published on Saturday.

The open letter, the latest addressed to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and published by the semi-official Ilna news agency, denounced the "heavy price paid by the country over the negative consequences of government policy."

In particular, it spoke of the "misguided trade policy and the policy of tension with the rest of the world, which has deprived Iran of opportunities for trade and foreign investment."

It said the sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council over Iran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment had added billions of dollars in extra costs to the country's foreign trade.

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

Tehran | November 11

AP - Iran's president is attracting some support at home for his message of congratulations to U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, which several newspaper commentaries said Tuesday presented an important opportunity.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's message, sent last Thursday, was the first time an Iranian leader has offered such wishes to the winner of a U.S. presidential election since the two countries broke off relations after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the hostage crisis at the U.S. Embassy.

Most recently, the two nations have been deeply at odds over Iran's nuclear program and what Washington says is Iran's support for Shiite militias in Iraq — a charge that Iran denies.

The state-owned Khorshid newspaper said Ahmadinejad's message "shattered America's incorrect view" that the Iranian president is not open the world.

The independent Etemaad newspaper said, "The message could create an important opportunity for both sides."

Another independent newspaper, Etemad-e Melli, reported that Ahmadinejad's press adviser, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, expected Obama to give "a deserving answer to the message as soon as possible."

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

Nazila Fathi | Tehran | January 4

NYT - As the race for Iran’s presidential election heats up, hard-liners are cracking down on activists who have supported reformist candidates in the past.

It is not clear who will run against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the June election, but Mohammad Khatami, the reformist former president, has hinted that he may enter the race. Mehdi Karroubi, a former speaker of Parliament and a reformer, has said he will run.

Although Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme religious leader, has repeatedly backed Mr. Ahmadinejad in public speeches, hard-line support for Mr. Ahmadinejad may be weaker than it appears and fear of Mr. Khatami’s candidacy is high.

Last week, the authorities shut down the daily Kargozaran, one of the few major reformist newspapers, accusing it of reporting misinformation about Palestinian fighters in Gaza. Iranian Web sites say pressure on students to end their political activities has also increased. That comes after several thousand students gathered in December to hear Mr. Khatami speak at Tehran University, a center of vocal protest against Mr. Ahmadinejad.

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass

Golnaz Esfandiari | May 20

RFERL - Iran's powerful Guardians Council has winnowed the field of hundreds of aspiring presidential candidates to four men, all of whom are current or former senior officials, excluding all bids by women or independent candidates to succeed incumbent Mahmud Ahmadinejad.

The clerically dominated vetting body approved the candidacies of Ahmadinejad, former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Musavi, former parliament speaker Mehdi Karrubi, and former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps head Mohsen Rezai. It rejected 471 other applicants.

Iran's reformist camp is represented by Musavi and Karrubi, each of whom is considered a serious challenger.

Rezai, a former commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards who is among the five Iranian officials wanted by Argentina for their alleged role in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish center, is widely regarded as a dark horse, with little chance to win the race.

The same day as the Guardians Council announcement, incumbent Ahmadinejad announced the successful test-firing of a new missile capable of reaching Israel and Southeastern Europe.

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“The absence of any US-Iran bilateral channel...may have the perverse effect of reinforcing Iranian interest in progressing in the nuclear realm so that the US will be forced to take it seriously and engage it directly." ~ Richard Haass