That low thrumming noise is Maxwell Taylor...


...spinning in his grave.

The small scale of the protests of the invasion of Iraq, on its third anniversary put me in mind of this polling done by the Gallup organization, which I ran across yesterday. Basically the polling indicates that by any reasonable historical standard the war on Iraq has had very little direct, concrete impact on the lives of everyday Americans.

It wasn't supposed to be that way. In the aftermath of the Vietnam war Max Taylor and a group of folks in the highest echelons of command restructured the American Army such that it would be impossible to have a major war, contrary to what happened in Vietnam, without mobilizing the National Guard. The thinking was that this would increase the political stakes of going to war and ensure that future administrations couldn't slide the country into war without anyone noticing, using only the regular Army. I don't know why this hasn't worked - I'm guessing that it has to do with the fact that the Army cross-cuts class dynamics less than it used to, but I do find the polling figures (after the jump) disturbing.

Some salient points from the release:

When asked how the war in Iraq has affected their personal lives, Americans are nearly three times more likely to say it has had a negative (39%) rather than a positive (14%) effect. However, the plurality of Americans, 45%, say it has not had much effect.

In April 2003, Americans were more likely to say the war had had a positive effect (37%) on their lives than to say it had had a negative effect (16%). In October 2003 and January 2004, Americans were more divided on the impact of the war. In each of the four polls, though, at least a plurality of Americans have said the war has not had much effect on them."

[snip]

A slight majority of Democrats, 52%, say the war has negatively affected their personal lives; 8% say it has had a positive effect, while 39% say it has not had much effect. Fifty-three percent of Republicans say the war has not had much impact on their lives, with the rest divided as to whether the war has positively (24%) or negatively (22%) affected them.

War Activities at Home

The poll also assessed what war-related activities Americans have participated in since the war began. Eighty-seven percent report that they have prayed for those affected by the war since it began. Roughly half say they have displayed a yellow ribbon on their car or property to show support for the troops, and about the same number have cried because of something related to the war.

Fewer than half of Americans say they have sent letters, e-mails, or care packages to U.S. troops in Iraq (43%), or have voted for or against a political candidate because of their own views on the war (36%).

Few Americans report having attended a funeral or memorial service for Americans who died in Iraq (17%), or that they have publicly opposed (13%) or supported (11%) the war by participating in a demonstration or writing to a public official."

Prayers are nice and all, but really I don't find that all that compelling as evidence that the public is even cognizant of what's going on. When the level of engagement, for or against, is this low (i.e., about a tenth on either end of the issue [and I'm guessing that's a big overestimate of actual engagement], it's pretty disturbing. And people wonder why there's such a thing as a professional military caste that frequently doesn't think too highly of the civilians...


JustPlainDave March 19, 2006 - 1:02pm

I don't know why this hasn't worked...

I'm guessing that there are many, many reasons. My two cents: the relatively low body count (compared to that of Viet Nam) combined with a truly (diabolical) management of information by Bushco has kept this war from "hitting home." There is no video of thousands of coffins being unloaded on the news every night. There is massive bullshit spewing from the White House every day, burying us all; several stories up on The Agonist right now bear this out. If there were more Cindy Sheehans--i.e. badly pissed-off parents of dead soldiers--more mainstream journalists ready to go for the throats of arrogant and obstinate officials, and fewer elected cowards, America would be a very different--and better--place.

A word in use around here for several years is equally revered and reviled. "Sheeple."

"Lord! What fools these Mortals be!"

Doug Richardson March 19, 2006 - 1:17pm

If we still had a draft, more people would be upset about the occupation of Iraq, as was seen in the Viet Nam era. It appears that "Hell no, we won't go" has been replaced by "They signed up, so they must want to fight." What's good for the Iraqi people doesn't enter the equation, with the exception of rah-rah speeches.

Here in Minneapolis, the 3rd anniversary march had four thousand participants. I'd expected a tenth of that.

Ten people who speak make more noise than ten thousand who are silent. --Napoleon Bonaparte

Seen and Heard March 19, 2006 - 1:19pm

other chilling effects on protest, Dave. This plus the blatant efforts by the administration to target peaceful protest groups for surveillance and harrassment.

Photos of Huge Police presence at Pittsburgh Peace Parade.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/3/18/223848/425








...Then I got the crowd itself. A nice drumbeat was being tattoo'd by an active group in the center, but mostly people were just milling around. Not the police. They had formed an impenetrable cordon. And I'm not kidding. The crowd was dressed in jeans, sweaters, jackets. It was a cold, sunny day. These police were in FULL RIOT GEAR. That's a block-long line of police in full riot gear. High-tech stuff: shields, shin, knee, elbow, shoulder protectors, pads everywhere. About every eighth officer had an earset with a microphone. Notice that the crowd is not particularly menacing. That's Pitt's Cathedral of Learning in the background.That's a block-long line of police in full riot gear. High-tech stuff: shields, shin, knee, elbow, shoulder protectors, pads everywhere. About every eighth officer had an earset with a microphone. Notice that the crowd is not particularly menacing...
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/3/18/223848/425

[And people wonder why there's such a thing as legitimate political dissent that frequently doesn't think too highly of the military or police.]

Escher Sketch March 19, 2006 - 1:28pm

...would be that if you don't believe enough to have your march in the face of a police presence like that, you don't believe enough. I've marched in protests with and without significant police presence and I much preferred the ones where the cops were there in significant number and visible. I've marched with tens of thousands and I've marched with hundreds, and when the cops are there and visible, things stayed under control and nobody got hurt. The very few demos that I've been at (or witnessed) where things got sideways were, with one exception, when the police presence wasn't visibly overwhelming. The one exception to this was the Ontario Legislature protest, and on that one OCAP was bound and determined that they were going to have a confrontation (when you charge police lines trying to enter the Leg, you're damned well trying for a confrontation). I wasn't there when it started, but I've seen the unedited footage, and it's definitive.

For the record, I don't wonder why it is that at least some of the folks behind much of this legitimate political dissent don't care much for the coppers or the military - they're not the guys left holding the bag when things go bad. They spend some time in the "damned if you do, damned if you don't" shoes and I'd have more time for them, but a big part of the reason that I stopped going to protests is because of the stupid buggers that thought deliberately provoking a reaction from the coppers was an acceptable strategy for dissent.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave March 19, 2006 - 3:01pm

Measuring one's conviction against police presence is a red herring. The point is that government may be attempting to quell dissent with the threat of force, a clear violation of constitutional freedom.

Does the riot squad turn out for every other march and assembly?

Ten people who speak make more noise than ten thousand who are silent. --Napoleon Bonaparte

Seen and Heard March 20, 2006 - 10:00am

...that the riot squad turns out at the assemblies where there's reason to believe that some participants could use violence. Where they err is, in my experience, when they overestimate the potential for violence. That having been said, given the possible consequences, I'm happy they tend to have a low threshold. I've heard a lot more talk about how intimidated folks were by the police presence than I ever felt - and a lot of it seemed to me to be people talking up their own importance in the greater scheme of things. The whole key to a lot of this stuff is making sure that you've got good control over your people - a bunch of professional, polite coppers monitoring the crowd frequently have a more calming effect than ostentatious display of anti-riot hardware, though their presence should be known.

I've seen the police presence rachetted up and down quite situationally - a few summers ago there was a lot of tension around something as harmless as the monthly Critical Mass ride. As the tension (and confrontations with motorists and, by extension, the police) escalated over a period of months, so too did the police presence - as tension de-escalated and folks started re-focussing on what the point of the ride was, the police presence rachetted down.

Yes there's bias in which assemblies/groups are targetted (e.g., the Raging Grannies making a "groups of note" list), but it's more due to ignorance of the phenomenon than the specific political suasion of the groups involved, near as I can tell (and if you really want to make them uncomfortable, tell them that there's no leadership at a demo; then they really get nervous). To be sure, I suspect that the left groups get more attention than they warrant (i.e. political suasion's not irrelevant), and part of that's the political composition of your average service, but there are other equally potent factors that frequently get overlooked, like simply being low hanging fruit.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave March 20, 2006 - 10:44am

Eighty-seven percent report that they have prayed for those affected by the war since it began.

87% ? Do you think this a true number or that a significant number of responders lied? I thought that 25% of Americans are atheists.

Rather many has reported that the war has had a positive effect on their life. What do they mean? They can't all own http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HAL&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

-- Let your prophets run and sell the suckers!

Gandalf March 19, 2006 - 4:36pm

...measure, unambiguously. The Census bureau estimates that there's about 29.5 million in the adult American population that identify themselves as "no religion" - about 2 million of them specify athiest / agonostic / humanist, with the balance simply responding "no religion". My guess is that a significant proportion of the "no religion" are actually folks with a religion who are simply declining (passively) to answer the question. Total adult American population is approx 208 million, so the upper bound is, what, 14%? [Note, all figures from the 2001 census.]

As to deception on the part of the respondents, yeah, I think there's a good deal of lying going on - as in, I don't think that much of the population even managed to pray.

"We declared war on terror, it's not even a noun, so, good luck. After we defeat it, I'm sure we'll take on that bastard ennui." - Jon Stewart.

JustPlainDave March 19, 2006 - 5:49pm

CIA World Factbook people with no religion in the US are listed as 10% of the population. The same source lists Finns having no religion at 13.5%. Does that seem accurate?

Mark March 19, 2006 - 8:30pm

A survey many years ago showed that 96 percent of Americans believe in God. Could one believe in God and not have a religion?

cardinal March 20, 2006 - 8:09am

Just like all war veterans are not members of a vet's club.

Don't fall into the U.S. Religious Right's echo chamber. They have their own "with us or against us" mindset.

- Rick

"Free your mind, and your ass will follow" - George Clinton

Rick March 20, 2006 - 9:05am

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