Exit and opinion polls show the two main paries running neck and neck. Reuters says a joint exit poll from five pollsters shows New Democracy getting 27.5-30.5% of vote, leftist Syriza at 27-30%. The KKE 5.5 Skai TV opinion poll shows Syrzia at 28% and New Democracy at 27.5%. The Democratic Left are at around 7.5% as are the rightist Independent Greeks. The fascist Golden Dawn trail everyone else with only 5.5%, down from it’s 7% showing in the first election.
Update Tweeted by James Mates, Europe Editor for Britain’s ITV News: “Skai TV gives first seat projections from their exit polls: Syriza 28% 124 seats, ND, 27.5% 73 seats, Pasok 13% 33 seats.”
Update 2 Syriza concedes – but still a remarkable achievment for a party that polled only 4.2% two years ago. The European neoliberal economic consensus is thankfully dead, and the Greek left have been essential in that.
Read this piece from the Guardian’s Andrew Rawnsley on how the UK government are quaking in fear over the EU asteroid, wondering if it will hit or not.
The Bank of England and the Treasury have conducted war games on what would happen in the event of the ultimate euro crisis: one or more of its members falling out of the currency. In the most optimistic scenario, the only departure is Greece and the exit is reasonably well-ordered. The damage is relatively limited as the European authorities successfully prevent contagion from spreading to consume other countries. In the blackest scenarios, the consequences of a Grexit are cataclysmic. It sparks a firestorm that engulfs all the euro-debtor nations. When the flames begin to devour Italy, even the financial clout of Germany is not sufficient to contain the conflagration. There are multiple bank collapses across Europe, including Britain, which make the crash of 2008 look like a mere hiccup in capitalism.
What makes these exercises even more scary for their participants is that they know that their war gaming is only an educated guess about the shape of the apocalypse. Even a controlled Greek exit would be pregnant with considerable perils.
Of course, Syrzia says there’s no reason why Greece should quit the Euro if only the fat cats will listen to reason and ren egotiate their draconian terms. Interesting times.