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. . . who are funding the war against American troops in Iraq. It's the Saudis.
I even said as much in my short segment on the Chris Duel Show the day before yesterday.
Over 90% of American casualties come at the hands of the Sunnis, not Shi'a. Who funds the Sunnis? The Saudis. 15 of the 19 hijackers on September 11 were from Saudi Arabia. We're fighting against Salafist inspired Wahhabi Jihadis.
Not the Shi'a.
and Newsweek has up some background on Junior's current bete noire the Iranian "Quds Force", apparently a branch of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, who had been quite active in both Afghanistan and Iraq, on the side of what are now American allies: the Northern Alliance (Afghanistan) and the PUK (Kurdish Iraq):
The New Enemy? Bush blames Iran’s Quds Force for a spike in anti-American violence in Iraq. Who are they, and how tight are their ties with Tehran? By Michael Hirsh, Babak Dehghanpisheh and Mark Hosenball Newsweek Updated: 3:46 p.m. PT Feb 15, 2007 Feb. 15, 2007 - President Bush officially anointed a new enemy of the United States on Wednesday: the “Quds Force.” After a week in which his administration contradicted itself repeatedly over the threat from Iran, Bush settled on what he said were the known facts. The sophisticated weapons being used against U.S. troops in Iraq “were provided by the Quds Force,” a paramilitary arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the president said at a news conference in the East Room. “We know that. And we also know that the Quds Force is a part of the Iranian government. That’s a known. What we don’t know is whether or not head leaders of Iran ordered the Quds Force to do what they did.” Just who are the Quds Force? And how good is the intelligence on them, really? A NEWSWEEK investigation shows that the evidence against the Quds Force is still questionable, and that some of the key Iraqi politicians Washington is relying on most, such as Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani, have had close relations with the Iranian group. The United States found itself on the same side as the Quds Force after 9/11 in the fight against the Taliban, when Quds supported the leader of the Northern Alliance, Ahmed Shah Masoud. ... Even after the Iran-Iraq War ended in 1988, the Quds Force, or Quds Brigade as it is also called, maintained three major foreign operations: supporting the Kurds in Iraq against Saddam, backing the Muslim Bosnians against the Serbs and working with Masoud and his Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. After Masoud was assassinated by Al Qaeda operatives on Sept. 9., 2001, Quds Force members helped the U.S.-assisted Northern Alliance cross the Kokcha River between Tajikistan and Afghanistan and advance toward Kabul to oust the Taliban, according to Iranian officials. Perhaps no one has benefited from the Quds Force’s patronage more than the current president of Iraq, Jalal Talabani, who is also a close U.S. ally. Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) party was Iran’s main ally in northern Iraq during the 1980s. When fighting broke out between rival Kurdish groups in the mid-'90s, the Quds Force fought on Talabani’s side against Massoud Barzani, whose Kurdish party had asked for Saddam Hussein’s help. ... Today, the broader U.S. intelligence community, including the CIA and the Directorate of National Intelligence—which nominally oversees the agency—seems to have reached a consensus that the ordnance on display in the Baghdad slide show was made in Iran and transported over the border somehow by the Quds Force. U.S. intelligence officials also say Quds Force members are suspected of manufacturing EFPs inside Iran. But the documentation remains scant. And considerable doubts continue to surface about the intelligence presented at the Baghdad slide show, including the fact that the writing on the conventional weapons displayed was in English, not Farsi. U.N. Ambassador Zarif also says that the date markings are American-style—that is, the month comes first. “There is every reason to believe that this evidence is fabricated,” he said. U.S. officials say the weapons were apparently built for the international market. Asked why the writing on the weapons allegedly made in Iran was in English, one U.S. intelligence official responded: “That’s a very good question.” It is one of many questions about the Quds Force that has yet to be answered. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17175607/site/newsweek/page1
The New Enemy? Bush blames Iran’s Quds Force for a spike in anti-American violence in Iraq. Who are they, and how tight are their ties with Tehran?
By Michael Hirsh, Babak Dehghanpisheh and Mark Hosenball Newsweek Updated: 3:46 p.m. PT Feb 15, 2007
Feb. 15, 2007 - President Bush officially anointed a new enemy of the United States on Wednesday: the “Quds Force.” After a week in which his administration contradicted itself repeatedly over the threat from Iran, Bush settled on what he said were the known facts. The sophisticated weapons being used against U.S. troops in Iraq “were provided by the Quds Force,” a paramilitary arm of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the president said at a news conference in the East Room. “We know that. And we also know that the Quds Force is a part of the Iranian government. That’s a known. What we don’t know is whether or not head leaders of Iran ordered the Quds Force to do what they did.”
Just who are the Quds Force? And how good is the intelligence on them, really? A NEWSWEEK investigation shows that the evidence against the Quds Force is still questionable, and that some of the key Iraqi politicians Washington is relying on most, such as Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani, have had close relations with the Iranian group. The United States found itself on the same side as the Quds Force after 9/11 in the fight against the Taliban, when Quds supported the leader of the Northern Alliance, Ahmed Shah Masoud. ... Even after the Iran-Iraq War ended in 1988, the Quds Force, or Quds Brigade as it is also called, maintained three major foreign operations: supporting the Kurds in Iraq against Saddam, backing the Muslim Bosnians against the Serbs and working with Masoud and his Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. After Masoud was assassinated by Al Qaeda operatives on Sept. 9., 2001, Quds Force members helped the U.S.-assisted Northern Alliance cross the Kokcha River between Tajikistan and Afghanistan and advance toward Kabul to oust the Taliban, according to Iranian officials.
Perhaps no one has benefited from the Quds Force’s patronage more than the current president of Iraq, Jalal Talabani, who is also a close U.S. ally. Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) party was Iran’s main ally in northern Iraq during the 1980s. When fighting broke out between rival Kurdish groups in the mid-'90s, the Quds Force fought on Talabani’s side against Massoud Barzani, whose Kurdish party had asked for Saddam Hussein’s help. ... Today, the broader U.S. intelligence community, including the CIA and the Directorate of National Intelligence—which nominally oversees the agency—seems to have reached a consensus that the ordnance on display in the Baghdad slide show was made in Iran and transported over the border somehow by the Quds Force. U.S. intelligence officials also say Quds Force members are suspected of manufacturing EFPs inside Iran.
But the documentation remains scant. And considerable doubts continue to surface about the intelligence presented at the Baghdad slide show, including the fact that the writing on the conventional weapons displayed was in English, not Farsi. U.N. Ambassador Zarif also says that the date markings are American-style—that is, the month comes first. “There is every reason to believe that this evidence is fabricated,” he said. U.S. officials say the weapons were apparently built for the international market. Asked why the writing on the weapons allegedly made in Iran was in English, one U.S. intelligence official responded: “That’s a very good question.” It is one of many questions about the Quds Force that has yet to be answered. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17175607/site/newsweek/page1
"It is one of many questions about the Quds Force that has yet to be answered."
However, Junior continues to burble away uncontrollably, because he knows the source of EFPs, regardless of what the so-called intel is currently showing. Also, for more on the ease which crude EFPs can be manufactured, read this via DefenseTech blog:
Real E.F.P.: Pocket-Sized Tank Killer The pictures released last week of Iraqi high-tech explosives surprised me. These special 'superbombs' that have caused so many US casualties -- they look like they had been assembled in someone's garage. These bombs belong to a class known as EFP --'Explosively Formed Projectile' or 'Explosively Formed Penetrator,' depending on who you're talking to. They compress a metal liner into a slug and fire it at the target some distance away. The picture shows what a real EFP munition looks like. This is M2 Selectable Lightweight Attack Munition (SLAM). It's small enough to put in your pocket and weighs a couple of pounds. This version has been used by US Special Forces for the last 15 years or so. As GlobalSecurity.org describes it, SLAM is versatile, too: It will be used to support hit-and-run, ambush, and harassing, and urban warface missions. SLAM will also be employed by Light Combat Engineers and Rangers where missions warrant the use of such a device....SLAM is lightweight, lethal, easily emplaced, and can be carried in the quantity necessary to neutralize a broad range of targets. Different modes allow SLAM to be triggered by the heat or magnetic signature of a passing vehicle or by a timer -- or it can be set off by a human operator. It can be emplaced in seconds and spits out a lethal slug which can punch through 40mm of steel armor at a range of 25 feet. You can leave it on the ground covered in dirt to attack a vehicle's belly, or conceal it beside a road for side attack. No doubt the Russians and Chinese have their own versions of SLAM, and these have probably been copied too. So you might expect a rougher, cheaper copy to appear in Iraq if it was supplied from the outside. But as has been observed here, anyone can make crude and simple EFP munitions in a basic workshop. All you need is a lump of plastic explosive and a piece of copper. Shape the copper into a saucer, put the explosive under it, and you're there. Obviously this will be a lot less efficient, accurate and reliable than something like SLAM (optimal design of the the metal 'lens' is an art requiring a lot of computer power), but you can compensate by making it ten times bigger if you need to. Maybe the insurgents should be given some credit for being able to build their own gear, or maybe there's more intelligence we don't know. But if EFP mines were being supplied by an outside source, you might expect to see somethng a lot slicker. http://www.defensetech.org/archives/003285.html
Real E.F.P.: Pocket-Sized Tank Killer
The pictures released last week of Iraqi high-tech explosives surprised me. These special 'superbombs' that have caused so many US casualties -- they look like they had been assembled in someone's garage.
These bombs belong to a class known as EFP --'Explosively Formed Projectile' or 'Explosively Formed Penetrator,' depending on who you're talking to. They compress a metal liner into a slug and fire it at the target some distance away.
The picture shows what a real EFP munition looks like. This is M2 Selectable Lightweight Attack Munition (SLAM). It's small enough to put in your pocket and weighs a couple of pounds.
This version has been used by US Special Forces for the last 15 years or so. As GlobalSecurity.org describes it, SLAM is versatile, too:
It will be used to support hit-and-run, ambush, and harassing, and urban warface missions. SLAM will also be employed by Light Combat Engineers and Rangers where missions warrant the use of such a device....SLAM is lightweight, lethal, easily emplaced, and can be carried in the quantity necessary to neutralize a broad range of targets.
Different modes allow SLAM to be triggered by the heat or magnetic signature of a passing vehicle or by a timer -- or it can be set off by a human operator. It can be emplaced in seconds and spits out a lethal slug which can punch through 40mm of steel armor at a range of 25 feet. You can leave it on the ground covered in dirt to attack a vehicle's belly, or conceal it beside a road for side attack.
No doubt the Russians and Chinese have their own versions of SLAM, and these have probably been copied too. So you might expect a rougher, cheaper copy to appear in Iraq if it was supplied from the outside.
But as has been observed here, anyone can make crude and simple EFP munitions in a basic workshop. All you need is a lump of plastic explosive and a piece of copper. Shape the copper into a saucer, put the explosive under it, and you're there. Obviously this will be a lot less efficient, accurate and reliable than something like SLAM (optimal design of the the metal 'lens' is an art requiring a lot of computer power), but you can compensate by making it ten times bigger if you need to.
Maybe the insurgents should be given some credit for being able to build their own gear, or maybe there's more intelligence we don't know. But if EFP mines were being supplied by an outside source, you might expect to see somethng a lot slicker. http://www.defensetech.org/archives/003285.html
.
...defencetech article above. I would say that there is a range of opinions on the matter. My sense is that if you want to produce something that throws a hunk of hot metal out there, it could (if you're lucky) be somewhat easy - the question is whether the design is good enough to penetrate the armour and what sort of standoff distance one achieves. Achieving that nice long, ballistically stable elongated teardrop shape is clearly pretty difficult, given all the effort folks go to to evaluate whether they've achieved it or not.
My take on it is that there's non-trivial knowledge involved in producing a good design, but that once that design has been prototyped and folks can copy from the prototype the knowledge and skills demanded go down a very great deal. I don't think that this is the sort of thing that every local metalsmith can produce (I don't think that folks have a very good idea of what the typical local metalsmith in the region actually can do or how they're equipped, frankly) but there's no doubt in my mind that this sort of thing could be produced indigenously by a subset of the better trained, better equipped folks.
Of the required basic elements for the weapon, only the liner isn't ubiquitous. Iraq is, to put it charitably, awash in explosives that have been diverted from their formerly enormous defence production infrastructure (and possibly other sources). Even if it wasn't, the precursors needed to synthesize explosives are ubiquitous and the knowledge required to go from precursor to explosive is highly institutionalized (i.e., there are lots of good sources a do it your selfer could go to in order to learn how). The same applies for detonators, and an initiation device is a pretty simple thing to fabricate. The casings are commonly described as iron water pipe, which is also readily available.
The only thing that appears to me not to be ubiquitous throughout the zone of conflict is the skills and equipment to produce the liners. This seems to me to be more spottily distributed (I'd guess it's probably found in the big cities). In that situation, what I'd expect to see is these things being produced in one or a few locales by specialists and distributed across the terrain as standardized parts, designed to mate with locally produced components. (I can, BTW, show people examples of technological production strategies thousands of years old that follow this same basic lexicon, including some from this exact region.)
The evidence that I see folks citing supports this - the knowledge, skills and resources required to produce the liners are a distinct cut above that required for all other elements of the charge, and again and again folks in country cite the degree of standardization in these liners, standardization being viewed in the archaeological literature as the technological hallmark of specialist production. Everything that I know about technological production systems suggests (with the caveat that we're looking at all of this from a very significant remove) to me that these things are being specialist produced (as an aside, specialized technological production systems were my Ph.D. research, hence the unduly formal reasoning).
None of this, of course, bears on the $64,000 question - if specialist producers exist, are they Iranian and/or is the source of any specialist knowledge or skills and any prototype - Iranian? From the evidence available to us, at this remove, I don't believe that this can be ascertained. That having been said, that does not mean that this is an unanswerable question. There are a variety of techniques that could bear on this question, from the typical range of intelligence collection activities to some fairly specialized forensic techniques. The question is whether those techniques have been applied and the results classified, or if this is all being taken on faith. I'm somewhat agnostic on the origin of these things, but I would find such involvement consistent with Iranian strategic objectives and past behaviour - however, I don't find that a particularly compelling standard of proof.
It is possible that this technology was entirely indigenously developed, but I don't think that is as likely as the technology coming in from some external source. Accounts state that it emerged as a fully developed technology, with no visible trial and error stage. This suggests that someone already familiar with the technology passed on knowledge or was involved in transplanting it. This certainly doesn't raise to the standard of beyond a reasonable doubt, but I'd suggest that intelligence work is seldom ever capable of meeting that standard - balance of probabilities is frequently the best that can be achieved.
"Political Islam is a dream or a nightmare, but not a sociological reality." - Olivier Roy, Globalized Islam: The Search for a New Ummah
is not where my personal focus is. Nothing much is indigenously developed here in Vancouver either.
The purpose of my contributions to these threads is to annhiliate this canard:
"You cannot deny that these weapons exist [true - ES]. You cannot deny that there is presently no manufacturing capability within Iraq able to produce those kinds of weapons [false - ES]." - Tony Snow
But in November, U.S. troops raiding a Baghdad machine shop came across a pile of copper disks, 5 inches in diameter, stamped out as part of what was clearly an ongoing order. This ominous discovery, unreported until now, makes it clear that Iraqi insurgents have no need to rely on Iran as the source of EFPs.
As expected.
I'm not attempting to create a counter-canard about them being "indigenously developed". I don't know where they were developed (and for the purposes of this particular point I don't care, as it is irrelevant).
It doesn't really matter who developed them for the purposes of debunking the Administration's claims that they are beyond any doubt Iranian-supplied because manufacturing them is outside of Iraqi abilities. Whether or not we've established who developed them or who manufactured them, we have established that the Administration's public statement on them is not credible.
This certainly doesn't raise to the standard of beyond a reasonable doubt, but I'd suggest that intelligence work is seldom ever capable of meeting that standard - balance of probabilities is frequently the best that can be achieved.
Correct. Back when we had greater trust in the synergy between intelligence community and the political wing, this was acceptable, and now this trust has been breached, it no longer is.
...that substantiates Cockburn's view of the event (or mentions the event at all), but I can't find any other corroborating mention. If anyone has found such a thing, I'd be grateful for a pointer.
Me, personally, I'm pretty distrustful one way or the other (at least without alternative accounts of the incident) as to whether the discs were clearly being stamped out in the machine shop (particularly given, as we've previously noted, that the examples that we've seen seem to have been at least finished on a lathe), or were being assembled into devices, having come into the shop as a completed (or even partially completed) component.
I would agree with your bottom line assessment - I haven't seen anything that positively debunks the notion that any elements were Iranian produced, only evidence that indicates that one can't prove Iranian production by exclusion (i.e., by demonstrating that the capability can't exist in Iraq). That said, I do think the issue of development does matter, not least because it could shed relevant light on where the issue is situated vis-a-vis the Iranian leadership (and factions within it), which is kind of important given the regional implications.
TEHRAN Reuters - Iran has arrested some 65 men suspected of being behind a deadly bombing that killed members of the elite Revolutionary Guards in a southeastern border province, the student news agency ISNA said on Friday.
It quoted the local police chief as saying the suspects had clear links to U.S. and British intelligence services. The claim comes at a time when the United States has accused Iranian groups of involvement in the war in Iraq.
A booby-trapped car blew up a bus owned by the Guards on Wednesday, killing at least 11 people in the city of Zahedan, the capital of the Sistan-Baluchestan province which has been the center of low-level unrest over the past months.
The attack was claimed by a shadowy Sunni militant group, Jundallah (God's soldiers), which Iran has said was linked to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network. Tehran has blamed Jundallah for past killings in the area bordering Pakistan...
...Iran's semi-official Fars news agency also quoted an unnamed official as saying that "explosives used by the terrorists in Zahedan were American made"...
more at link
I did inhale.
By ANDREW COCKBURN
President Bush has now definitively stated that bombs known as explosively formed penetrators - EFPs, which have proved especially deadly for U.S. troops in Iraq - are made in Iran and exported to Iraq. But in November, U.S. troops raiding a Baghdad machine shop came across a pile of copper disks, 5 inches in diameter, stamped out as part of what was clearly an ongoing order. This ominous discovery, unreported until now, makes it clear that Iraqi insurgents have no need to rely on Iran as the source of EFPs.
The truth is that EFPs are simple to make for anyone who knows how to do it. Far from a sophisticated assembly operation that might require state supervision, all that is required is one of those disks, some high-powered explosive (which is easy to procure in Iraq) and a container, such as a piece of pipe. I asked a Pentagon analyst specializing in such devices how much each one would cost to make. "Twenty bucks," he answered after a brief calculation. "Thirty at most."
The homebrew scientists at sciencemadness.com like to make things that go boom.
They enjoy tinkering around with lined shaped charges for fun.
( ... Link 1 ... )
( ... Link 2 ... )
19 pages in that thread alone, be sure not to miss any. They also have some cool movies, such as -
Formation of copper penetrator 1
Formation of copper penetrator 2
Von Mises Stress on twin hemispheres
I'm still happy to have been lucky enough not to end up being known as "righty"...
here
"at some point I'm hopeful I'll figure out something to put here"
opinions and conjectures, any one of which can be true, or partially true, or indeed false, but none of which will get us to the immediate truth of the (narrow) issue at hand: "locally produced" or "imported" explosives. But, in fact does it really matter, as the sheer volume of ordnance, from crudely fabricated to more sophisticated, has been shown to arise from multiple sources, both within and without territorial Iraq, and there is nobody who can prove definitively and unambiguously that any one government beyond the borders of Iraq is directly complicit in what Junior is charging "the deaths of American troops" by deliberately arranging for the importation and use of such explosives (i.e, ETFs) for the express purpose of targeting the US military. As I noted previously, "end-use" is a difficult concept to press an indictment back to "original source"; the salient issue here is the wide-spread proliferation of these devices, and the seeming inability to "neutralise" them. Why aren't people making a big issue about the most lethal weaponry in use today: the ubiquitous car-bombs, which have accounted for a sizable number of casualties in Iraqi cities, mainly civilians, but also a significant number of Iraqi and US military as well. Again, the sources for explosives used are no doubt manifold, I would guess mainly obtained internally, but does it matter where the raw material originates or how it is fabricated? Of course not, because the important point is that a car-bomb is easy to assemble, and its effects are devastating, purely on a "cost-benefit" basis, and virtually impossible to prevent, as one is dealing with both a "remote-control" detonation, and the "suicide bomber", a more "intelligent" fuse, as it were. The anti-occupation forces will always have the advantage here, and arguing ad nauseam about the minutiae of "fine-machinery", or "copper v. bronze casting", whatever, simply fades into "forest for the trees" sort of polemics, and frankly not very productive.
...about this is the notion that the conflict in Iraq will rachet up to the intensity of Lebanon during the worst years and maybe spill over its borders and drag the surrounding nations into this catastrophe, I'd suggest that anything that potentially sheds light on the nature of involvement of those countries in Iraq could be quite useful. This would seem particularly to be so, given the historically central role external support has played in the waging of sustained warfare of this type and the potential that the surrounding countries might even come to wage proxy warfare against one another (and so supplement the currently fairly intense political conflict).
As to failing to make a big issue about car bombs, I find it hard to accept the notion that they somehow aren't considered important, given the amount of effort that was sunk into cutting down Zarqawi and aligned movements, historically the largest practitioners of the tactic. His organization is clearly far from gone and they're clearly still going after it. The news cycle may have moved on, but the conflict sure doesn't seem to have.
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