talks between the P5+1 and Iran open in Istanbul this weekend. The Atlantic’s Robert Wright has done a pretty good job of boiling down all the speculation, analysis and reccycling going on down to four big questions. I think the biggest hurdle may be Fordo.
In an interview with IPS, Reza Marashi, who worked in the State Department’s Office of Iranian Affairs from 2006 to 2010, said, “If the demand for Fordow’s closure is non-negotiable, the talks will likely fail.”
As yet we’ve no obvious answer to that “if”, but it worries me. The consequence of failing to jaw-jaw this time is war-war.
…and it will take belief by the players on both sides that: a) the Iranians will work, over time, within the bounds of what is possible for them towards the closure of the facility (or the de facto defanging of it, but more likely the closing) and b) it is in Iranian ultimate interests to work towards this. It will notably be somewhat more difficult to do – particularly on the American side – if Congress and the Majlis fail to do the smart thing and shut the fuck up.
“Everything around you that you call life was made up by people that were no smarter than you and you can change it, you can influence it, you can build your own things that other people can use.” ~ Steve Jobs