Iran And Then What?

I still believe, at least on the part of the Iranians, what I wrote last week. (The negotiations have been postponed, by us, that is.) But, after Sy Hersh’s revelations this weekend, especially the ‘Hitlerian’ comments, it looks like Bush has himself a bad case of Napoleon-wants-to-invade-Russia scale arrogance.

Seriously, how many weeks did Kosovo take? That was only an air campaign.

How much larger is Iran than Serbia? How many basiji are there in Iran? Has the pasdaran infiltrated part of southern Iraq? You see, the calculus is vastly different. This isn’t an Arab army like that of Egypt which faced Israel in the 6 Day War (and very rapidly evaporated). These are Persians. Yeah, Alexander knocked them off there pedestal and so did Genghis. But every other invader has had, shall we say, a rough time of it.

In the end, Josh is spot on:

For myself, I still find it really, really hard to believe that the adminstration is seriously considering military action against Iran. At one level, I don’t believe it. But I’ve thought the same thing with these guys too many times and been wrong. It’s a situation where I set logical analysis aside and rely on experience and the administration’s track record.

We know these guys. Why get fooled again?”

I’m basing my expectations on past experience, not wishful thinking and planning accordingly.

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Sean Paul Kelley

Traveler of the (real) Silk Road, scholar and historian, photographer and writer - founder of The Agonist.

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