In Other Election News

You heard it here first: I fully expect the Democrats to chip large portions of the Republican majority in the House away, if not overtake them completely.

Right now, there’s a distinct anti-Washington fervor in the nation. There was two years ago, too, but the Teabaggers fucked that up by co-opting any populist agenda into the now-transparent “let’s give MORE money to our corporate overlords so we can beg for scraps” ploy that created the whole Mitt Romney candidacy that is limping into the nomination.

Really. Think about it. After Occupy Wall Street & the 99% meme, and Mitt’s revelations of paying less than 15% on tens of millions in income, the average voter has got to be thinking “Who’s really in charge here?”

Add to that the overheated anti-Latino rhetoric of the Republican primary campaign– and the last Congress, altogether– and you have a recipe for taking back enough seats, 25, to overturn the balance of power in Congress.

And for the final kicker, if Romney wins the nomination, the vaunted “enthusiasm” factor the Republicans allegedly had flies out the window. Romney’s coattails will be next to non-existent– he might bolster some Northwest and Mountain races– and indeed, it will be the down-ticket votes that propel him to any showing whatsoever.

That said, it troubles me how much superPAC money there is floating around. As you are no doubt aware, Newt Gingirich has been the beneficiary of something like $10 million from Sheldon Adelson, who could easily afford to pump another $490 million and still break even on one year’s taxes.

Romney can afford at least nine figures himself. Add Adelson’s generosity to any potential Republican candidate, altho clearly not as enthusiastically as to Newt, and you have a formidable bloc of money, despite Obama’s war chest of nearly a billion.

Worse, this superPAC money can go downstream too and influence tight races, thus propelling Mitt’s prospects a little further.

Things look good for Democrats this year, but don’t get cocky. It ain’t over til the last Cayman withdrawal is made.

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  • but it remains to be seen if it will really matter – it depends on how much we can frighten the bastards.

    One observer considering Truman’s victory over Dewey* commented that he was amazed at how the voters were somehow able to shrug off the misinformation and propaganda promoting the GOP and arrive at the better choice.
    Most people distrust politicians generally, but I think many are getting more specific – and see the current crop of GOP as corrupt, obstructive, destructive a$$holes. It won’t be so much a matter of being pro-Dem as being anti-GOP.

    What sunk Dewey was that he seemed to inspire devastating put-downs like “A man couldn’t wear a mustache like that without having it affect his mind“. The clincher was that he looked like “the little man on the wedding cake“.

    It might be worth trolling the comedians for a few good lines suitable for becoming memes. 🙂

    It is worth remembering that the Founding Fathers were all traitors.

  • It’s worth pointing out that we’re in an era of mass medium change. I wonder a little what will be the iconic interent moment that parallels the Nixon – Kenedy debate. And, the notion of any of the GOP field running a net-savvy campaign seems a bit of a reach — though that might just be me being out of touch.

    From where I’m sitting, it seems like the salient question is – as you point out – not whether Obama will win, but rather how long his coattails are.

  • Gays will show up for Obama, he was at least smart enough to end DADT and come out in support of LGBT rights when they shoved it up his political backside.

    But, what have hispanics gotten in the last 4 years? Where is the immigration reform they were promised, where was the admin when Alabama and Arizona were passing awful state laws? Those votes are up for grabs. Young people, what did they get? What have they been given to pull their focus off OWS and back to Obama in 2012? What did Unions get? Did the administration meet any of their demands, including the god awful FAA deal just presented (by the Admin nonetheless)? Why should they burn through their powder on a weak supporter like Obama?

    I think Obama’s only prayer in 2012 is that Romney, GIngrich, or ??? is so toxic he drives voters into the booth to vote for anyone other than the devil himself. What has Obama really given his base to rally around? The banks got (and continue to get) bailed out, the unions got nothing, HCA was an insane mess with the mandate poisoning any good it did, Bush tax cuts were extended (they didn’t even to do anything, just let them expire), and unemployment is as deep and bleak as ever. Obama did draw down in Iraq and Afghanistan, I’ll give him that. Unfortunately, a good portion of that was brokered under GWB, easy for Republicans to steal that thunder in 2012 if it is a support plank for Obama’s reelection.

    So where’s this base that going to propel Dems back into office? Not sure I’m seeing where the enthusiasm would come from to battle the SuperPACs the R candidate will ultimately control.

  • My own feeling is that whichever of the duopoly win out in the elections, neither’s base is going to be particularly excited about their candidate. It’ll all come down to “keeping out the other guy”. We can expect a storm of “most important election EVAH!” and “hold your nose and vote” talk from both camps but I fully expect one of the lowest turnouts in recent history. That favors the vested and moneyed interests backing both parties equally, rather than favoring “we the people”.

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