Sometimes I have to remind myself that Ezra Klein is, after all, a policy wonk:
If Obama wins the election, the odds are that he’s facing a Republican House, and perhaps even a Republican Senate. But it’s not a sure thing. Speaker John Boehner said he thinks Republicans have a 1-in-3 chance of losing the House. InTrade puts it a smidge closer to 1-in-4. But that’s assuming the full range of possible election outcomes. If the premise is that Obama is winning, Democrats have a slightly better chance of taking back the House, as that’s a scenario in which the election is definitely breaking their way.
[...]
Odds are, in other words, that if Obama wins, he will still be negotiating with Republican leaders in Congress. But the same can’t be said for Mitt Romney.If Romney wins the election, it’s almost a sure bet that Republicans win control of both the House and the Senate. And that matters. Right now, the GOP’s agenda is the Ryan budget, and that’s entirely fiscal: It’s a premium support plan for Medicare, and tax cuts, and deep cuts to Medicaid, food stamps and other domestic programs. All that can be passed through budget reconciliation ”” which is to say, all that can be made immune to the filibuster.
So if Romney wins and the Republicans take control, they could accomplish quite a lot on party-line votes, even if their majorities are slim, and Democrats are opposed. Indeed, Romney could end up being a fairly transformational president for conservatives so long as he’s paired with a Republican Congress.
You don’t say, really?
No kidding. The wonk needs to wake up.
Romney is at 15% of the Latino vote and needs 35% to have a chance (McCain got 31%). Romney has no chance in the big cities (.5 mil or more and lesser cities even (.1 mil to .5). Obama won with 70% and 59% respectively in 2008. AND, the rural constituency is down to 14% of all voters, down from the 23% high in 2000.
Reminds me of the great former Governor (now political prisoner) Edwin Edwards, (D-LA) when he ran against the KKK/and Republican Party’s David Duke: ‘The only way I’ll lose this election is if they find me in bed with a dead girl or a live boy.’
Here is one “X” factor, imho. Just saw someone spinning that the Supreme Court hearing on the AZ immigration law challenged by DoJ indicated that the justices were sympathetic to the provision allowing officers to check migration status when they stop someone for something else. How would they know to check-RACIAL PROFILING. Should SCOTUS upholds that part of the law, just remember the May Day demonstrations with millions in the streets a few years ago. Rightfully, Latinos will mobilize and Obama will benefit.
Maybe it was just spin but the justices are not exactly known for being that intelligent or their knowledge of the Constitution.
The Money Party RSS
Jimmy Carter: aboveboard and decent human being (translation: terrible politician). Politico: “Former President Jimmy Carter said he’d be ‘comfortable’ with a President Mitt Romney, but predicts President Barack Obama will keep his job. ‘I’d rather have a Democrat but I would be comfortable. I think Romney has shown in the past, in his previous years as a moderate or progressive, that he was fairly competent as a governor and also running the Olympics,’ he told MSNBC’s Chris Jansing in an interview that aired Wednesday.” [Politico]
from Huffpost email and Politico
This can only be Good News For Romney.
As in, “Today, even the liberal former president Jimmy Carter…(insert BS equivocation here)”
“I shall continue to be an impossible person as long as those who are now possible remain possible.”
– Mikhail Bakunin