Did Bob Barr just give Obama the White House?

Word is that Bob Barr is probably going to accept the Libertarian party nomination. Up until this point I had assumed that the battle between McCain and Obama was roughly even, because:

1) Many Americans don't like Blacks. Yes, you're a liberal, and you don't want to hear this, and everyone hates the media for talking about it. But, y'know, it just happens to be true. When resumes with black names get two thirds the interview requests as otherwise identical resumes with white names, no one can tell me racism doesn't matter in America. Americans won't hire blacks for normal jobs, but they will hire one as President?

2) McCain's brand is Maverick Man of Principle! That's a powerful brand. Sure, it's BS. But then Bush wasn't a compassionate conservative, and Kerry wasn't a coward. Reality and American elections don't even have a passing acquaintance with each other.

Balancing that, is:

1) Obama is an amazing speaker.

2) McCain's a Republican and he is going to get tarred with Bush's unpopular occupation of Iraq and Bush's lousy economy. Normally any Democrat could win the election due to those two things. Of course, mind you, the economy was lousy leading up to 2004 too, and by all normal metrics Kerry should have won, so I take such things with a grain of salt these days. The media was for the war, and they really didn't mind Bush's economic policies that much—the elite opinion makers, after all, like their tax cuts.

But Bob changes things. If the Paulites rally to him and if his popularity in Georgia causes it to flip to Obama, well, it's a whole new ball game. McCain could get buried. This election is close enough that even a couple percent in a few key states could turn it into an Obama landslide.

Ian Welsh May 12, 2008 - 3:36pm

Ian Welsh's diary | printer friendly version |

( categories: Miscellany )

You're kidding, right?

Normally I find myself agreeing with everything you say, Ian. But Bob Barr?

Now, admittedly, I don't keep up with Libertarians much and I only know Bob Barr on sight because he looks like a weasel I once met. But I cannot see Libertarians flipping any election this year anymore than I see Greens flipping it.

dude May 12, 2008 - 4:39pm

Only takes

a couple percent. And libertarians know Bob Barr. He's actually very consistently opposed things like the Patriot Act which libertarians hate. The Paulite rebellion shows that libertarians are tired of being taken for granted. The percentages are absolutely there, imo, if Barr gets traction. By all accounts Republicans begged him not to run, they know they're vulnerable on that flank.

Ian Welsh May 12, 2008 - 6:08pm

I don't think it helps

I don't think it helps McCain but I don't think it's a deal-breaker either - in the end, I'm not convinced it's going to be close, Barr or not.

Nominay May 12, 2008 - 4:57pm

Celebrity candidates

For a minute I thought that said Bob Barker.

JoeNotCharles May 12, 2008 - 5:23pm

Hannity's head explodes over Barr

watch it slo-mo.

LJ May 12, 2008 - 5:37pm

I know Republicans who will vote for him

They've been saying for years that they are more libertarian than pure conservative, and they've been looking for a way to launch a protest vote against the Republicans without voting for the Democrat (who will just steal their money anyway with tax increases). When you vote Libertarian it doesn't matter so much who the candidate is - he isn't going to win. You are just making a statement. Barr at least was a former Congressman from the south and a significant individual in the Republican Party. He could be troublesome for the Republicans and McCain because he has name recognition in the south. It will be interesting to see if Ron Paul endorses him.

Numerian May 12, 2008 - 5:45pm

If Ron

endorses, I suspect his candidacy will take fire. Could even pull over 5%. More than enough to sink McCain.

Here's praying for Paul to stick to his ideological guns.

Ian Welsh May 12, 2008 - 6:10pm

that would be funny if Paul

that would be funny if Paul became his running mate - talk about an Obama landslide

Nominay May 12, 2008 - 6:30pm

M'bee, m'bee not

I haven't looked into the stats, but doesn't Obama currently owe his lead in the Primary race, at least in part, to his greater share of independent (and republican) voters? I don't know how Obama matches up with McCain on this either.

Also, there is a deadline for getting your name on the ballot, varying state by state. Anyone have an idea how many ballots one could get their name on if just starting now?

ww May 12, 2008 - 6:22pm

Not buyin' it

He is bland-looking. The glasses combined with the quasi-70's-pornstache has got to go. And uh he has to uh lose the 'uh'. Plus side: he has no Georgia accent which would sink him.

Seriously, part of RonPaul's success is that he is distinctive looking. RP has physical and verbal presence.

“The Playboy reader invites a female acquaintance in for a quiet discussion of Picasso, Nietzsche, jazz, sex.” - Hugh Hefner

Tonsure Wimple May 13, 2008 - 1:12am

Ron Paul looks like Mr. Magoo

He is a fine and articulate speaker, but he always looks disoriented and enfeebled to my eyes. Maybe he looks more dignified than Bob Barr, but that's not saying much.

I don't think that a candidate's appearance is relevant to anybody running as, or voting for, a Libertarian. That's definitely a philosophical crowd, where the relatively few participants know it's all about ideas and principles.

chalo May 13, 2008 - 12:25pm

Libertarian a potential spoiler for McCain

Former Ga. congressman could draw conservatives

The Boston Globe, By Susan Milligan, May 13

WASHINGTON - Brushing aside pleas to keep a fractured Republican Party united, former GOP congressman Bob Barr announced yesterday he would seek the Libertarian nomination for president, threatening to deprive Republican John McCain of critical votes in key battleground states that the GOP needs to hold on to the White House.

Barr, a six-term conservative congressman who has split with his erstwhile party on civil liberties and privacy issues, could deny McCain victories in states including Nevada, Colorado, and perhaps Barr's home state of Georgia. He has the potential to become for the presumptive GOP nominee what Green Party candidate Ralph Nader was to Democrat Al Gore in 2000, some political analysts said.

"In the 2008 environment, the landscape is pretty bad for the GOP anyway. John McCain does not need any new impediments to the presidency, and Bob Barr is another impediment," said Steven Schier, a political science professor at Carleton College in Minnesota.

[...]

Zogby's own polling suggested that Barr would capture some 3 percent of the vote nationwide. "Do I think he'll get 3 percent? Probably not, but he doesn't have to," Zogby said. "If we just look at the states in play, he can, with just 10,000 votes here and there, make a difference. I think we're looking at a razor-thin election."

_{"Frankly, we've lost a lot in recent years." - General Colin Powell}

Raja May 13, 2008 - 7:34am

Huh?

Obama is an amazing speaker

That's it? The whole analysis? Oh, OK you did mention people won't vote for him because he's black. That sure explains why he's going to be the nominee. Forget about the fact he's raised more money than any primary candidate in history. Forget about the wins in states with vitually no blacks. Forget about the majority of super-delegates No, no it's all about America is too racist to elect a black president without a third-party spoiler. Proof? A study that showed black folks with black sounding names didn't get calls for interviews. That proves nothing other than the affect of the names. No control was added for other markers for race. Be that as it may, an actual study of the economic outcomes of people in America with black sounding names showed no affect. I am not by any means saying race has no impact or even no small one but when you make sweeping statements like.

Americans won't hire blacks for normal jobs, but they will hire one as President?

you really need more to back them up to be credible in my book.

Hillary Clinton has executive experience in the same way that Yoko Ono was a Beatle.

Mark May 13, 2008 - 9:58am

What About Gravel?

You seem to write him off a little too easily. I know yow Obamamaniacs would love to see Barr. But it ain't happening.
Timothy V. Gatto

timgatto May 13, 2008 - 10:38am

Oh my

anyone who wants to argue that America does not have huge amounts of racism just makes me laugh.

Also, the study you list does not contradict that there's a lot of racism that makes folks not want to hire blacks

Although seemingly in conflict with the audit study findings, we believe the two sets of results can be reconciled. To the extent that Black names are used simply as signals of race by discriminatory employers, it is unlikely that names would be correlated with job outcomes beyond the interview stage since the employer directly observes the applicant’s race once aninterview takes place. In the face of discriminatory employers, it is actually in the interest of both employee and employers for Blacks to signal race, either via a name or other resume information, rather than undertaking a costly interview with little hope of receiving a job offer.

By the way--who was the last Democratic nominee to set records in terms of new registrations, etc? Hint: he isn't an ex-president.

Obama isn't even doing as well as 'generic democrat' in polls.

Ian Welsh May 13, 2008 - 4:44pm

I am not saying there is no racism in America

only not the "huge' amount you seem to believe there is and certainly no so much as would keep Obama from the presidency. I know this from decades of life experience living in a multi-racial American environment. Experience you don't have. You repeatedly cite the resume study about black names on resumes as the sole basis for your assumptions and the study I recited specifically refutes this, finding that:

In contrast to prior audit studies of black names on resumes, we find little evidence that names have a causal impact on adult life outcomes.

You can laugh all you want. But it doesn't make your case. Neither does the fact that a black man is about to be the Democratic nominee for the President of the United States.

Hillary Clinton has executive experience in the same way that Yoko Ono was a Beatle.

Mark May 13, 2008 - 7:03pm

Timothy V. Gatto

timgatto May 13, 2008 - 10:40am

Bob Bar

Voted for the War, all the appropriations, Voted for the Military Commissions Act, The Patriot Act, The Homeland Security Bill and Libertarians just don't like those Big commitments to Big Government. You are all in dreamland. Gravel will tear him up in the Debate om May 20th.
Timothy V. Gatto

timgatto May 13, 2008 - 10:44am

I for one admit to not

I for one admit to not knowing Barr's record like you did. I think you're right.

Nominay May 13, 2008 - 2:58pm

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Did Bob Barr just give Obama the White House?

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