The End of Cheap Food and the Era of Food Shortages


The end of cheap food, and absolute shortages are on the way. There are a number of reasons, which include the following:

1) The early instability caused by global warming, whose first effects are less increased temperatures than unpredictable weather patterns has lead to key areas having lower crops than in the past.

2) Aquifers in large parts of the world are being drained at unsustainably fast rates. This includes most of the American southwest, large parts of China, huge swathes of India and many areas in Africa. In India there are already villages that have had to be abandoned because no matter how deep they drill, there's no water. This is only going to get worse.

3) Desertification and reduced fertility. US farmland fertility is less than half of what it was 50 years ago. Large areas of China are deserts, with dust storms boiling out of them on a regular basis. It is only a matter of time before we have full on dust bowls in many major food producting regions, just as we did in the 20's and 30's.

4) Modern agriculture is actually very dependent on oil, and the demand and supply curves for oil are not looking good. Reduced soil fertility has been made up for by increasing the amount of energy used. That energy, at the very least, is becoming more and more expensive and will continue to do so. That will drive up food prices significantly, or force a return to the use of much more human labor. Probably both.

5) In the short run foolish subsidies for ethanol have driven up the price of food staples as farmers switch to corn to sell for ethanol.

I hardly expect the current administration to do a great deal about this, but I still encourage people to sign the ONE Campaign's petition for Bush. Making it very clear that this is an issue that matters to a lot of people is the only way that politicians will take it seriously. The sooner we start, the better, and the life you save (or the pocketbook you help) will as likely be your own as anyone else's.

So please take a few moments and go sign.


Ian Welsh April 18, 2008 - 2:30pm

I posted an article the other day about an innovative UK program for urban gardening that anyone could participate in. Maybe a sense of community could be reignited if Americans and other countries tried it and it could help out their food budgets.

Tina April 18, 2008 - 3:07pm

Every idea helps. This one is cool

http://www.skysails.info/index.php?id=9&L=1

mainsailset April 18, 2008 - 4:34pm

The is a huge step between a concept and a prototype, and a between prototype and production, and production and common use.

I prefer windmills, and solar panels. They don't move about randomly.

Skysails operating with tornadoes, thunderstorms, downdrafts or microbursts look incompatible.

Synoia April 18, 2008 - 5:46pm

on decreasing the intensity of Florida hurricanes by constructing very large towers to shunt the hot air close to the ground to the upper atmosphere--and generate electricity to boot.

Of course, the problem is that such structures would need to be huge and very costly indeed. They'd probably cost something on the order of a year's worth of war in Iraq...

Petronius April 18, 2008 - 5:57pm

if you look at the press releases the sky sails have now been successfully tested at sea. Ship traffic consumes huge amounts of fuel and is a necessary element of our global economy. No tornadoes at sea and radar today gives operators advance warning of weather to give them operational windows.

The new wind collectors for houses to fit on the roof ridges is also set to alleviate the 40' plus height consideration homes had to use. Solar panels next generation with first the tracking poles and now the sheet panels are adding affordability to the reason for going alternative.

mainsailset April 18, 2008 - 6:58pm

yes.

These are the big issues out there and they get so little attention.

I did inhale.

Don April 18, 2008 - 4:40pm

Forbes

KANSAS CITY, Mo. - The world has "never been less secure" about the near-term future of wheat as crop failures and disease combine to threaten food supplies, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Edward Schafer told food aid groups Wednesday.

Schafer told the International Food Aid Conference meeting that crop failures have left global wheat stocks at their lowest point in 30 years and U.S. wheat stocks are at 60-year lows. Climate changes that have spawned unrelenting drought, floods and late freezes have all had an impact.

more

I did inhale.

Don April 18, 2008 - 5:26pm

According to William Pfaff, it isn't natural causes that's driving the run-up in food prices.

Bangladeshis eat what they want to, and not what's cheap. While rice seems to be dear as gold, potatoes are going to rot. Moral: keep your diet flexible.

Petronius April 18, 2008 - 5:31pm

I like spuds, mashed, boiled, baked, fried, (I don't like McDonalds fries, too little spud, too much frying) I like English chips. I'm indifferent to rice.

My wife, an Asian, has different views.

And where in Africa do they eat a lot of rice? It's mealies (Maize) in Southern Africa, Cassava in West Africa, and, I believe Millet, in East Africa.

Synoia April 18, 2008 - 5:54pm

that speculation is involved, but I don't think it's the only issue.

Ian Welsh April 18, 2008 - 6:59pm

Instead of growing tobacco or cotton in Africa, why not corn and soybeans?

How much influence does the IMF or World Bank have on a country growing the wrong stuff? Who needs coffee when you can't get rice?

Petronius April 18, 2008 - 7:32pm

there was a huge shift from production for consumption to consumption of cash crops for export over the last 30 years. That's IMF/World Bank driven to a large extent.

Ian Welsh April 18, 2008 - 8:14pm

while your point is taken, i would greatly quibble about the particulars.

without going into the nonedibles particulars, i would mention it's a new time for an old and faithful crop, hemp.

edibles, well, i don't eat starches like corn or rice or potatoes or grains, but i do know there's tons of wasted vegetables left behind after harvest in north maine. stuff considered 'too small to market'. you like broccoli? with a pickup truck or whatever, one can take home as much as one wants for free. about that crop: they, the caribou farm community, were forced to start growing it after ruining the soil growing nothing but potatoes for many years, which goes against basic farming knowledge as i was taught in school decades ago. consider that: crop rotation as a recently and reluctantly adopted practice. it makes no sense and boggles the mind.

food value isn't what it once was. what pbs said about corn as i link below, i don't doubt applies to all our crops. how many strains of all crops have been lost? how many old seeds were saved?

Zuma April 18, 2008 - 8:32pm

What is going on is this first, Bangladesh produced a huge potato crop:

http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-32637720080323

However, even with the price of rice doubling, and the price of potatoes falling, potatoes are more not less expensive per calorie, and cannot be stored as long. The Bangladeshis are responding to price correctly, rice is going up in price because it is cheaper per calorie than wheat.

Stirling Newberry April 18, 2008 - 9:44pm

The Beeb mentioned this morning that the government is feeding potatoes to the armed forces instead of rice.

This says that B'desh has storage for about 7M metric tons, but then this says that there is storage for only 2.2M tons. But it does say that Bangladeshis need to eat more potato.

The problem in Bangladesh appears to be complex--and may be transient. The rice crop was hit hard by cyclone Sidr last year. The Bangladeshi forums are full of talk about potatoes and rice. But, as one poster put it--"How can you eat fish without rice?"

Petronius April 18, 2008 - 10:12pm

Is that the usual situation is this: potatoes are a high density crop, that goes bad more quickly, and is often used for feed or by urban dwellers who need food that can be prepared quickly. As these urban dwellers feel the pinch of inflation, they move down to less expensive calories, particularly when those less expensive calories are the ones they prefer culturally anyway. They bid up the price of rice.

Another factor is that in the early parts of food uncertainty, people hoard, and that to has been reported from multiple sources in Bangladesh. This further increases the price of rice.

Now, the people who are normally eating rice only, move down to the lower grades of food, substitute crops if available, in China this is millet for example.

The people usually at the peripheries then go hungry.

My guess would be that potato production is what dispossessed uplanders plant, and the bumper crop combined with inflation leaves a surplus. The market will clear in the sense that the surplus will go to waste and the people who lose that lose everything, and will go out of potato farming. Not in a nice way.

One problem that the Bangladeshi's have is that the time honored way of storing starch and sugar calories is not open to them... In other times and places the excess would be distilled. But it would not be economical at fuel prices.

Better might well be to feed the potatoes to pigs, export the pigs and buy grain with them, since Chinese demand for imported meat is spiralling. It might take a few low interest loans to get moving, but trade should be used to buffer, not exacerbate, risk.

Stirling Newberry April 19, 2008 - 12:31pm

Since Bangladesh is largely Muslim, with the remainder being mostly Hindu, neither of which eats pork. I'll wager that the propect of pig farming hasn't been seriously considered there.

Petronius April 19, 2008 - 3:56pm

keep your diet flexible is exactly right.

Consider seaweeds

The sea is the source that all things arise from and return to. The human body begins its development in a saline solution in the womb and is nourished and cleansed by blood that has almost the same composition as sea water.

Sea plants contain ten to twenty times the minerals of land plants and an abundance of vitamins and other elements necessary for man's metabolism, making them an excellent source for food and medicine. Certain ones actually remove radioactive and toxic metal wastes from the body.

Seaweeds are effective even in relatively small, supplementary amounts such as a few kelp tablets (3 or more grams daily)

Hijiki, arame, and wakame each contain more than ten times the calcium of milk; sea lettuce contains twenty-five times the iron, hijiki eight times the iron, and wakame and kelp about four times the iron of beef. Seaweeds are an excellent salt substitute (From "Healing with Whole Foods" by Paul Pitchford).

Most seaweeds derive from Japan. At this time, Hijiki is no longer available for export but it can be replaced with Arame. Crush Arame before cooking. Dulse flakes can be sprinkled on anything you wish. Prior to cooking, soak a Kombu stick in water for 5 minutes to make it easier to snip. If left whole to cook, it will give an unappetizing slime-like appearance. I snip it really small so the kombu disappears into the dish I'm cooking.

Kombu and Kelp greatly increase the nutritional value of all food prepared with it, as it is considered the most completely mineralized food.

When stored in a glass jar in a dark, dry area, seaweeds will keep up to one year.

Consider sprouts

Sprouts represent the point of greates vitality in the life cycle of a plant.

During sprouting, vitamin and enzyme content increases dramatically. The sprouting process predigests the nutrients of the seed, making it easier to assimilate and metabolize. This explains why grains and legumes, many of which are common allergens, often do not cause allergies when sprouted.

During cold seasons, sprouts act as an excellent source of fresh vegetables (From "Healing with Whole Foods" by Paul Pitchford).

Learn how to sprout seeds. Always use distilled or spring water. Save all rinse water for cooking, animals or plants. I keep a supply of alfalfa and red clover seeds - these are the easiest to sprout. After the first three days of rinsing, place the sprouts in a dish with a glass cover in indirect sunlight to induce chlorophyll.


"While not a Playboy reader, she invites a male acquaintance in for a quiet discussion of Chagall, Nietzsche, jazz, sex." - not a Hugh Hefner quote

adrena April 21, 2008 - 9:15am

Just had some tonight. Remarkable grain.


"...cunning, baffling, powerful."

ww April 21, 2008 - 6:50pm

Awareness of a growing food "crisis" reached a high point last weekend when the International Monetary Fund declared that it's more of a global threat than the current credit crunch.

In the past few years, basic commodities such as wheat, rice, soybeans, sugar and corn have posted triple-digit price increases for a variety of reasons.

These reasons include increasing populations, higher energy prices, a rising Asian middle class demanding more meat, climate change, volatile commodity markets and increasing biofuel production.

'Agricultural land prices in the Valley have doubled, and in some cases tripled, in the past five or six years, with undeveloped farmland rising from $25,000 to $30,000 per acre to between $50,000 and $65,000 per acre, or more.

In some Valley sectors, farm prices now exceed $100,000 per acre.'

http://www.canada.com/theprovince/news/story.html?id=8d33745c-a72b-4fe3-87d0-fa18826cf35e

Leaftree April 18, 2008 - 8:03pm

Before California's "Silicon Valley" was called that, it was known as "The Valley of Heart's Delight". Feet of topsoil, frost-free temperate climate with just the right growing conditions for everything. Sunnyvale grew cherries and tomatoes (Del Monte had a large cannery there); Santa Clara grew Italian Prunes; San Jose has some remarkable vineyards (Paul Masson got started there).

Then they paved it over and poured a bunch of concrete tilt-up buildings.

I remember that in springtime, cherry blossoms in Sunnyvale formed mounds in the streets like snow. When it was tomato canning season, the whole place smelled like spaghetti sauce.

Most people working in the now very-congested valley know nothing of its agricultural legacy.

Some folks can remember when southern California's San Fernando valley was a rich agricultural area also.


They paved paradise
And put up a parking lot
With a pink hotel, a boutique
And a swinging hot spot
Dont it always seem to go
That you dont know what youve got
Till its gone
They paved paradise
And put up a parking lot

They took all the trees
Put em in a tree museum
And they charged the people
A dollar and a half just to see em
Dont it always seem to go
That you dont know what youve got
Till its gone
They paved paradise
And put up a parking lot

---Joni Mitchell, "Big Yellow Taxi"

Petronius April 19, 2008 - 11:39pm

In 1960 you could walk from Cupertino all the way to Saratoga and never leave the Orchards. You had to cross a few rural roads like Prospect.
In 1965 they started the bulldozers, they push the fruit trees into great piles fifty feet high and let them sit until they burned them. We used to climb around in the piles of trees. It was so sad, from beautiful to suburbia in just a few years; people cannot understand the magnitude of this tragedy. This was the best farmland. I remember they would cut down the old oaks too. Nothing was left alive.

Joaquin April 22, 2008 - 1:16pm

i watched the pbs documentary on the 15th, it was excellent double plus. these guys, working a single acre of corn, learned about government farm subsidies, the sad devitalization of corn as we know it, the great prevalence of this crappy corn and it's products in fast food, and what all this has done to farm families. sound like not news, i know, but still... this acre project tracks the actuality of all that from seed to french fry.

Google search on king corn

http://www.pbs.org/independentlens/kingcorn/

***

http://www.dealtaker.com/NitroPak-coupon-code-a1037-c.html

shelfstable foodstuffs will only increase in relevence and value imho. i'd heard of nitropak thanks to kevin at http://cryptogon.com but i didn't know til yesterday about these coupons.

Zuma April 18, 2008 - 8:14pm

I still have a letter on file from Honey Baked Hams that states that their hams contain no honey, but do contain high fructose corn syrup.

Last night, my wife and I dined on a great soup made with ceci (chickpeas). Home-baked bread with it. No corn anywhere. (boil soaked chickpeas with celery, carrot, garlic and onion until soft; pureè and add cooked pasta (I used penne)).

Corn I can do without; even dairy, but I would miss wheat and root veggies.

Petronius April 18, 2008 - 9:23pm

almost four years ago, when oil was trading at around $40 a barrel, Paul Roberts wrote a story for Mother Jones on a bleak scenario gaining currency among energy insiders, but not yet in the mainstream consciousness: peak oil, basically the notion that the world's petroleum resources are nearing exhaustion. If the theory held true, Roberts warned, oil prices could soon leap to "perhaps as high as $100 per barrel—a disaster if we don't have a cost-effective alternative fuel or technology in place."

Welcome to the disaster: $100-a-barrel oil is in the rearview mirror, and no cost-effective (or even cost-prohibitive) alternative has emerged. The most dire consequences of this failing—hurricanes, drought, extinction—are occurring far more rapidly than even Slideshow Al could have predicted four years ago. And then there's the war.

It's easy enough to blame Dick Cheney, Big Oil, Detroit—all of whom have done their part in obstructing progress. But their chicanery distracts us from the far greater problem, one that, unfortunately, comes down to Organic Chemistry 101. Every technological advance of the last 150 years has been powered by a unique, extremely energy-dense, but finite—and, as it turns out, planet-killing—source of fuel. Switching away from fossil energy requires an economic and social transformation at least as great as the Industrial Revolution. And we have to build this new economy on the fumes of the old, hoping that we don't run out of gas, or ice caps, before we get there. As Roberts points out in this special issue on energy, if we sit on our hands or let the process be hijacked by vested interests, "there may not be enough crude left in the ground to fuel a second try."

more

I did inhale.

Don April 19, 2008 - 8:23am

The petition calls for Bush to pay more attention to the problem of global food shortages. Why on Earth do I want Bush to pay more attention to global food shortages? He strikes me as the last person I'd want working on this problem.

kibitzer April 19, 2008 - 1:10pm

White House releases 200 million in food crisis aid

4 days ago

WASHINGTON (AFP) — The White House on Monday authorized the release of 200 million dollars in emergency food aid to help alleviate a growing global food crisis, a spokeswoman said.

"With this action, an estimated 200 million in emergency food aid will be made available through the US Agency for International Development," press secretary Dana Perino said in a statement.

"This additional food aid will address the impact of rising commodity prices on US emergency food aid programs, and be used to meet unanticipated food aid needs in Africa and elsewhere."

Asked about the possibility of other US measures, Perino responded: "We are continuing to assess the need. This 200 million dollars will address the emergency, and if more is needed we will strongly consider it."

more

Tina April 19, 2008 - 1:48pm

Does anyone know a credible place for donating related to this crisis? I checked UN's site but there is only news and warnings. ONE's site doesn't list one neither.

pembeci April 21, 2008 - 8:15am


"...cunning, baffling, powerful."

ww April 21, 2008 - 8:28am

That looks like a good organization in general. So many problems in the world, so many people needing aid. I wish I were richer.

Today, I noticed that UN's World Food Programme is now accepting donations about this crisis:

http://www.wfp.org/english/

pembeci April 28, 2008 - 5:02pm

It came recommended to me, though I forget from where now. I also think Oxfam and Kiva are worthwhile too.


"...cunning, baffling, powerful."

ww April 29, 2008 - 5:18am

1) The early instability caused by global warming, whose first effects are less increased temperatures than unpredictable weather patterns has lead to key areas having lower crops than in the past.

- and started saying "climate destabilization". Even those completely invested in denying the former to the point of creating elaborate mental constructs to defend that denial can't deny the latter.


"The best-informed man is not necessarily the wisest. Indeed there is a danger that precisely in the multiplicity of his knowledge he will lose sight of what is essential."

- Dietrich Bonhoeffer

Escher Sketch April 21, 2008 - 10:28am

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