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The Paulson PlanSo Paulson has come out (pdf) with a plan. It's primarily a reorganization plan, pushing the Thrift regulator into the SEC, creating a federal mortgage regulator, giving the Fed the right to inspect the new firms that now have access to its liquidity. There's some talk about being objectives based. It's almost always a bad sign when the primary "reform" is to create new agencies or merge old ones and Krugman is right to ridicule it as The Dilbert Strategy. What don't I see here?
The creation of the Department of Homeland Security did nothing to improve security in the US. Nada. Zip. What it did was allow billions of dollars to go to rural red states which are unlikely to be attacked by terrorists, while ignoring real security needs. Organizational reform does not, by itself, do a damn thing -- they are almost always power grabs. Now power grabs aren't always bad. It depends what you're going to do with the power you grab. Paulson's plan either doesn't tell me what specifically will be done with the increased power, or when it does (as with the SEC or the mortgage regulatory body) it tells me the plan is decrease regulation (the SEC) or to preempt state regulation (mortgages). In no place do I see stern words about leverage, about default insurance, about exotic securities. Instead I read about streamlining and about making business "easier" to do. The commission that came up with this plan was seated a year ago. What they have proposed is nothing more than what they wanted anyway, such as a federal charter for insurance companies, which as Marcy Wheeler points out, seems to have nothing to do with the current crisis. But there's been talk of a federal charter for insurance for a long time. I used to work in insurance compliance and it's a mess of 50 state laws. Some of them are a joke, but the toughest (currently New York) are far tougher than anything I can see a federal charter creating. But a federal charter would save insurance companies a lot of money to have only one regulator and many of the larger companies have been pushing it hard for years. So yes, this is just something they wanted to do anyway. Paulson's plan is meaningless and will do nothing to slow this meltdown. More importantly, I doubt it will do much if anything to slow the next meltdown. Fundamental changes are needed, and reorganizations absent a hard mandate, mean nothing. Ultimately, this remains "shock therapy" - wait for a shock, in this case the market collapse, then do what you wanted to do anyway, but couldn't get through in normal times. Further Reading: Ian Welsh April 1, 2008 - 5:56am
( categories: Economics: USA | The Markets )
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