Leverage Explained


I recently had an acquaintance ask what leverage was, which made me realize that many of our readers without financial backgrounds may be scratching their heads.

Let's give a simple example (when I used to trade I was shocked and astounded when I first realized just how much leverage they allowed).

Let's say that you have a trade or investement that you expect will make 5%. Say you've got a $1,000 to trade with. Your normal profit would be $50. Not bad, but meh, you want more.

So, borrow more money against it - borrow $29,000. Now you have $30,000. By $30,000 worth of the stock. Your profit? $1,500.

And all the money of your own you put up was $1,000. At the end of the trade, you have $2,500 in your account. Your profit? 150%! Wow!

Sounds rocking!

But what if the instead of the security you were buying going up 5% it declines 5%? When you sell out, you owe $1,500. Too bad you only have $1,000.

So, if that's your life savings and/or capital, you're now bankrupt.

Let's take it one step further. It drops 20%. Which means you're at -$5,000. What do you do?

Well, since you don't want to go bankrupt, perhaps you don't close out the trade. Theoretically your at negative worth, but as long as no one asks for money, as long as you aren't forced to close out that trade... well, it's all good.

And that's where many of us are quite sure that a lot of brokerage houses are. They're probably insolvent. But as long as they aren't forced to sell (or "unwind") well, they can stay in operation.
But if someone says "no, we want that trade closed out now", well then, it all comes down.

Leverage is really, really dangerous, especially if you don't limit downside risk somehow. And in a lot of cases the banks and brokerages seem to have not limited their losses properly.

(I left the cost of borrowing out for simplicity. Borrowing does cost money and it will eat into your profits. So if you're earning 6% and borrowing at 1%, which was entirely possible for quite a while, then you would make less, depending on duration. )


Ian Welsh March 24, 2008 - 11:44am
( categories: The Markets )

I am one of those non-financial-background types, and I wanted to say thank you for the post! I had come close to this definition of leverage from the context of all of the other discussions here, but it is really nice to see it all spelled out (I hope everyone else feels encouraged to write some of these econ101 posts as well!!).

I do have a follow up question: In your example, would your leverage ratio be 29:1 or 30:1? I keep seeing that 30:1 number being bandied about as a terrible number, so I was hoping to understand it better.

Thanks again!!

tank29 March 24, 2008 - 1:00pm

In Ian's example, it is 30:1. While 29:1 would make sense at first, when you reverse the ratio you should get the proportional move to cause bankruptcy. In this example, 1/30th the wrong way on a 30,000 investment would wipe out your capital of $1000.

johnnyel March 24, 2008 - 1:39pm

how much of it is allowed?

I know the margin calls are regulated... but what about all these derivatives markets? How much margin are they allowed?

Call me naive, but I believe that a meltdown of the financial derivatives market was inevitable. When so many people are eeking out such TINY gains, the best way to game the system was to hide your leverage.

It was only a matter of time before somebody came up with some dangerous shell game to bypass the safety valve... and trigger a meltdown.

These people should be incensed to look for big gains... not tiny ones.

--
http://bexhuff.com
Of COURSE you can trust the US Government! Just ask the Indians.

bex March 24, 2008 - 1:42pm

investor, the rule is usually 10:1 iirc. If your positions drop below that, you get what's known as a "margin call" and you have to either deposit more cash, or sell enough securities to reduce the margin to less than 10:1.

For brokerages -- no one is really in control, they can exert as much leverage as they want -- or as much as folks are willing to lend them, anyway. And that was a simple example, there are securities that innately have a ton of leverage, options for example, and you can borrow with leverage then buy securities that are innately leveraged.

Banks are more tightly regulated and most banks seem to have leverage ratios of about 10:1, which is still dangerous, but is much more reasonable than 30:1.

All of this assuming that various games haven't been played to hide leverage off the books.

Ian Welsh March 24, 2008 - 6:55pm

In a larger sense, people will leverage basically as much as they can get. I hear stories about interest-only loans with no money down That's a 1:0 leverage to capital ratio.

If the markets are efficient the lenders check to make sure that the borrowers will be able to pay margin calls..

NateTG March 25, 2008 - 10:07am

If they are reporting 30:1 leverage, the reality has to be worse... 50:1 or even 100:1 in some cases.

Say you are "capitalized" with $10 million, and leveraged out to $500 million total (50:1). A 1.0 change in the interest (as happened with the .25 Sunday and .75 Monday drops recently) means you are saving half the value of your entire base "capital" in a year in interest alone!

Or at least, to my poor math skills, that's the way it seems...

Apocalypse Khan

Temujin March 24, 2008 - 5:37pm

Sometimes it pays to put things in a format a common man understands.

I did inhale.

Don March 24, 2008 - 8:02pm

with other people's money! No other explanation.

creativelcro March 24, 2008 - 11:07pm

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