Parsing the Canadian NAFTA Fuss


Chris Bowers over at Open Left seems to think that the "leak" about Obama privately walking back his promise to renegotiate NAFTA if he wins the election was a deliberate attempt by the Canadian government, run by Prime Minister Harper of the Conservative party, to help McCain and damage Obama.

True? I haven't the faintest and there's no way to know. Plausible? Sure. The Conservative party has deep ties to the Republican party, Harper is personally on good terms with many US conservatives, and Harper's mentor is a standard Straussian who believes that dirty tricks in a good cause are entirely acceptable.

On the other hand, Obama's quite likely to wind up as United States president, and only someone who is a fool, or who puts his own interests before Canada's, would deliberately try to sandbag a possible US president unless he was sure it would take him out (and maybe not even then: sandbagging a president is a good way to make a lot of Senators angry, and Senators have a loooooong memory). One would like to think that Harper and the Conservatives are not that ideologically blind, or that self confident. But Harper, unfortunately, is something of an ideologue and thinks very very well of himself. He's brilliant, and he knows he's brilliant.

So...we can't rule Harper's intervention out.

As for NAFTA, the Liberals and the Conservatives might want to keep it, but its predecessor agreement was passed over the negative votes of the majority of Canadians. Everyone who was around at the time in Canada knows that if a referendum had been run, NAFTA or the FTA would have gone down in flames. Big business might care, but ordinary Canadians wouldn't be all that upset if the US decided to cancel it (renegotiation is another matter. But cancelling it outright? Eh, whatever).

And then we come to McCain, whom Chris thinks was working in cahoots with the Conservatives when he said this:

"One of our greatest assets we have in Afghanistan today, frankly, are our Canadian friends," he said. "It's very controversial in Canada, their commitment and the suffering and the losses they have faced. And we need, we need our Canadian friends and we need their continued support in Afghanistan.

"So what do we do? The two Democrat candidates for president say that they're going to unilaterally, they're going to unilaterally abrogate the North American Free Trade Agreement. Our biggest trading partner, they're going -- who we made a solemn agreement with -- they're gonna unilaterally abrogate that. Now, how do you think the Canadian people are going to react to that -- who we are having now their enormous and invaluable assistance in Afghanistan and we're going to abrogate a free trade agreement?"

The war isn't popular in Canada either. The two main parties are for it (yes, yes, we have problems with lack of representation too) but the majority of Canadians want out. However, as noted I don't think the majority of Canadians will give a damn if the US abrogates NAFTA. Of course, the people who matter in Canada will. So McCain's not wrong, in fact abrogating NAFTA might get Canadian troops pulled out.

Finally, the denials from the embassy. I would expect Ambassador Wilson to say nothing else, no matter what the truth is. He was one of the major architects of NAFTA when he was Canadian Finance Minister under Prime Minister Brian Mulroney (and the finance minister is almost always the second most powerful man in government in Canada) so he's not going to endanger his legacy. More than that, unlike Harper, Wilson is an honorable man. If he was told something off record, he'll keep it off record and deny. I would be extraordinarily surprised if the leak came from him.

Finally, the guy with the mustache in the video is Jack Layton, leader of the Federal NDP (New Democratic Party), Canada's third, and most leftwing, party. He is not, as the Huffington Post mistakenly stated, a Liberal MP. Nor is he a "Labour" leader, as the talking head in the video says (Labour is a British party, not a Canadian party).

And Jack would have no problem with the end of NAFTA, rest assured of that.


Ian Welsh March 4, 2008 - 3:45am
( categories: Miscellany )

Thanks for fleshing out the analysis with your own very grounded perspective.

Jeff Wegerson March 4, 2008 - 10:01am

The memo that has become a focal point in the race is the first documentation to emerge publicly out of the meeting between the Obama adviser, Austan Goolsbee, and officials with the Canadian consulate in Chicago.

The memo was written by Joseph DeMora, who works for the consulate and attended the meeting.

"Noting anxiety among many U.S. domestic audiences about the U.S. economic outlook, Goolsbee candidly acknowledged the protectionist sentiment that has emerged, particularly in the Midwest, during the primary campaign," it said. "He cautioned that this messaging should not be taken out of context and should be viewed as more about political positioning than a clear articulation of policy plans."

But Goolsbee disputed the characterization from the conservative government official.

"This thing about 'it's more about political positioning than a clear articulation of policy plans,' that's this guy's language," Goolsbee said of DeMora. "He's not quoting me. I certainly did not use that phrase in any way."

The memo obtained by the AP was widely distributed within the Canadian government. It is more than 1,300 words and covers many topics that DeMora said were discussed in the Feb. 8 "introductory meeting" between himself, Goolsbee and the consul general in Chicago, Georges Rioux.

Tristan Landry, a spokesman for the Canadian Embassy in Washington, said DeMora was not available for an interview Sunday. His only comment on the memo was to say that although consulate officials reach out to U.S. campaign officials to seek their views, "Canada does not in any way seek to interfere in U.S. electoral politics."

Obama spokesman Bill Burton said Goolsbee's visit was not as an emissary from the campaign, but as a professor from the University of Chicago. He was not authorized to share any messages from the campaign, Burton said.

Burton, who was on the call while Goolsbee described his visit to the AP, said, "It all boils down to a clumsy, inaccurate portrayal of the conversation."
More

adrena March 4, 2008 - 10:50am

“In Ottawa, Harper denied accusations from Layton that he was trying to influence the U.S. political process, but the NDP leader called on the Prime Minister to fire his chief of staff, Ian Brodie, alleged to have leaked the original information to CTV. "I certainly deny any allegation that this government has attempted to interfere in the American election,'' Harper said.

"The American people will make the decision as to their next president and I am confident that whoever that person is, man or woman, Democrat or Republican, that person will continue the strong alliance, friendship and partnership that we enjoy with the United States."

In Washington, the Canadian embassy, said it regretted the memo implied Obama would say one thing publicly, but give a contrary signal privately.

"There was no intention to convey, in any way, that Senator Obama and his campaign team were taking a different position in public from views expressed in private, including about NAFTA,'' the statement said.

"We deeply regret any inference that may have been drawn to that effect."

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Clear as mud?

Idiots… Harper controls all messages and if he didn’t intend to sway the election, then he make an enormous boo boo for which he should personally apologize and not leave it to spokesman/spokeswoman speaking on his behalf! Seems Canadian politicians are clones of American politicians and you're never going to get them to admit in public they made a mistake.

canuck March 4, 2008 - 12:52pm

Ian, I like your article and after a year and a half of life in Canada I cannot put it past Harper to have engineered that. One little quibble. Can we in the (center-) left leave Strauss alone. He was a Platonist for God's sake. He interpreted ancient texts examining issues that have everything to do with the philosopher's capacity to survive in a dangerous world. After the death of Socrates and the earlier expulsion of Protagoras from Athens (though this is a contested a possibly spurious event) this was an issue and Strauss works on that. That a number of his students, who simply took a few classes (and were not part of his closest circle) used his work, does not mean they are Straussians. At least let us use quotation marks around the term. I use the guy in aspects of my work and believe me, there is little "Straussian" in me, other than the recognition that authors will take measures to protect themselves from a censorious regime.

dimik72 March 4, 2008 - 2:07pm

I, for one, do not trust the MSM or a representative of a conservative government to interpret for me the exact words of Obama's man.

Haven't we seen this kind of thing before?

Remember Al Gore's non-statement about creating the internet?

Remember Willie Horton?

Remember John Kerry's faked wounds?

Remember Howard Dean's amplified scream?

Conservatives have a long record of inventing pseudo-scandals, then making them pinball around in their evil echo chamber. Unwilling to wait for a genuinely stupid pronouncement, the MSM (and Canada's got them too) are looking for anything they can twist into one of their many fake narratives. This one stinks to high heaven of exactly that kind of bullshit.

The real question we should be asking is, WHY HAVEN'T WE HEARD AN AUDIO RECORDING? Hard for me to imagine that nobody had one handy at an important government meeting.

Until I hear an audio recording of that conversation, then I will accept Goolsbee's account of what happened rather than the version of any reporter that works for the corporate media.
.
"Adapt or perish." Murphy's Law? Nope, Darwin's Guarantee.

Jimbo92107 March 4, 2008 - 3:34pm

PM denies top aide leaked Obama NAFTA memo

but the ending has a kicker:

Trade Minister David Emerson and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said U.S. officials should not forget the benefits of the agreement and hinted Canada could respond to a NAFTA pullout by renegotiating U.S. access to Canada's oil

Tina March 4, 2008 - 7:34pm

...has an interesting post:

Back during the 2004 campaign, I did a story full of on the record quotes from Laura Tyson, one of Kerry's top economic advisors, promising that Kerry's rhetoric about trade was bullshit: [quote elided]

I got exactly zero bounce from this article even though, in my opinion, it was much more solidly grounded than a story about a memo about something someone told a diplomat at a party...

Stepping away from my bitterness, you have two candidates, both of whose economic advisory teams are full of proponents of trade deals, both of whom are now campaigning in a state where trade deals are very unpopular, both talking the trade-skeptic talk while also trying to quietly reassure other key constituencies that the Washington Consensus is a alive and well. The larger irony here is that the multilateral trade process as a whole ran aground several years ago over agricultural issues and shows no signs of reviving no matter who wins the election.

Gordon March 4, 2008 - 7:12pm

He is a Bush mini-me.

repressive governments mix administrative clumsiness & inefficiency with authoritarian tendencies.

kimmy March 4, 2008 - 8:36pm

Harper is certainly a clone, but I would say that the original DNA comes from Cheney, not Bush. He is more clever, more devious and even less principled than the Prez - hence Cheney.

I think it is quite possible that Harper engineered this whole mess to throw a stick into Obama's spokes. And I will be overjoyed to watch unattributable, but very embarrassing to the Tories tidbits trickle out from an Obama White House at opportune moments during the next Canadian election campaign.

pmf13 March 5, 2008 - 8:09pm

In fact, the Canadian government is assisting mostly Democratic candidates. On the Canadian Taxpayers Federation website it was recently revealed that Canada's federal agency CIDA gave $18 million over four years to International Planned Parenthood, which is spending $10 million to assist pro-choice candidates in the current U.S. election. So Canadian taxpayers' cash is being used to help mainly Democratic candidates. Both the Canadian media and some in the Obama camp are up in arms over the Canadian Conservative government allegedly helping the Republicans, when in fact it is actually helping to fund the election of Democrats.

Tom March 4, 2008 - 9:46pm

weak.

Ian Welsh March 4, 2008 - 10:08pm

after watching him for a couple of years 'brilliant' isn't the word i'd use, more like : possessed of low cunning, without scruples, opportunistic liar ...

hjmler March 4, 2008 - 11:45pm

smart. He's actually a very inflexible thinker. But he's very smart. and yes, he also has most of the attributes you give him. I don't like Harper at all.

but he's smart.

Ian Welsh March 5, 2008 - 12:36am

He's an ALbertan. He likes oil. He waltzes with the born agains. He likes war. He may or may not be smart, but he's certainly wily. He's also incredibly, unbelievably lucky to have the nearly completely unintelligible Stephan Dion squatting in the Opposition chair.

Chickadee March 5, 2008 - 8:50pm

Dion would be better than he has been. Sad.

Ian Welsh March 7, 2008 - 2:34am

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