Clinton Doesn't Have the Nomination In the Bag Yet


Clinton doesn't have the nomination in the bag yet any more than Obama did after Iowa. Neither Clinton nor Obama is blowing out the other just yet, and even a double digit win wouldn't mean an end to the race.

Everyone take a deep breath and relax.

Unless Obama and Edwards national numbers collapse they have no reason to bow out. Even if Clinton or Obama winds up with more delegates, if they don't have 50%+1 it isn't over yet. And Obama and Edwards are much more buddy buddy with each other than with Clinton, each of them probably figures they could make a deal with the other if it comes down to the convention.

So take a deep breath and realize that all NH did was change the narrative again, but not the reality yet. This primary season is going to keep going.

Photo credit Rooster Talk


Ian Welsh January 8, 2008 - 11:20pm
( categories: USA: Campaign 2008 )

I read on another thread. Something about Hillary having more delegates from Iowa than Obama even though she came in third place in the caucuses.

Is there anything to this?

I did inhale.

Don January 8, 2008 - 11:34pm

super delegates are notoriously fickle. If Clinton is ahead, they'll stay with her, if not they probably won't determine the result. So... means less than it seems, but not nothing.

And I could be wrong, there's a lot of institutional loyalty to the Clintons.

Ian Welsh January 8, 2008 - 11:37pm

O is closing in on C and you guys are already doing general punditing. Try to live in the "now" for another half hour, for god's sake, instead of the high-level summary- it's better for your health;-)


1."George Washington did not cross the Delaware for Capitalism," -Shmuley Boteach.
2.The Dems haven't punished the GOP enough, so you're going to reward the Republicans?

nymole January 8, 2008 - 11:58pm

applies no matter who wins by a few percent. Or even a lot of percents. But thanks for the advice.

Ian Welsh January 9, 2008 - 12:07am

Diebold.

Surely not...

I did inhale.

Don January 9, 2008 - 12:45am

the Canadian voting system? Just a good old X mark with a pen, beside the candidate of your choice is all that is required. It works perfect each time. Or would this be too simple?

adrena January 9, 2008 - 12:58am

eom.


1."George Washington did not cross the Delaware for Capitalism," -Shmuley Boteach.
2.The Dems haven't punished the GOP enough, so you're going to reward the Republicans?

nymole January 9, 2008 - 1:01am

you can't compare how you measure the temperature to how you elect a president. Isn't this like comparing apples and oranges?

adrena January 9, 2008 - 1:10am

when it comes to changing anything based on some procedure used in another country.Most people here don't travel outside of the US.


1."George Washington did not cross the Delaware for Capitalism," -Shmuley Boteach.
2.The Dems haven't punished the GOP enough, so you're going to reward the Republicans?

nymole January 9, 2008 - 1:46am

It would make disenfranchising selected groups and regions that much more difficult for the ruling classes.

Bolo January 9, 2008 - 2:50am

that's exactly what we do (well, #2 pencil actually).

Gordon January 9, 2008 - 12:13pm

Ouch. But in a gamed system everything and anything is possible.

hvd January 9, 2008 - 10:07am

Any bets? Not saying she's my favorite candidate, but at this point I'm convinced she will be the nominee. She will win against any Republican as well.

creativelcro January 9, 2008 - 2:20am

Details for the Michigan Primary

At stake: 30 GOP delegates; 0 Democratic delegates. Because Michigan broke party rules by moving up its primary, it has been stripped of half its GOP delegates and all its Democratic ones. Leaders of both state parties expect to regain the lost delegates at their respective conventions, but Barack Obama, John Edwards and Bill Richardson pulled their names off the ballot.

Polls show: Hillary Rodham Clinton leading among Democrats still on the ballot, but voters also can choose "Uncommitted," which Obama and Edwards supporters may do; Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are in a close race among Republicans, but John McCain could be helped by crossover voters as he was in 2000.

I did inhale.

Don January 9, 2008 - 11:50am

That IF Edwards wins, or garners enough delegates to render himself king maker, marshalling himself back into that vice president slot for a future vice presidency. I fully support him. His positions are all great, he is a brilliant capable politician.

The Democrats are putting up three really really great candidates, with great policies, hopes, and the ability to get things back where they need to be.

What do the repubs got? Someone who is 73 with a history of cancer, a bunch of deadbeat dads, and religious nuts. And then there is Giuliani who, my god, his weirdness factors go off the charts. Lets elect a man who likes to wear dresses, has been divorced multiple times, uses city resources to support his mistress, takes telephone calls in the middle of speeches. But then I don't think he'll be around much longer.

This is one election where Democrats HAVE GOT TO PULL TOGETHER AT SOME POINT.

Lets debate, support, cajole. But, I'll tell you, one more eight year run like the last and we may as well throw in the towel. It could not have gotten worse than the last eight years.

Scotjen61 January 9, 2008 - 2:09pm

I'm beginning to see the race, not so much anymore as a battle between the establishment Clinton and the insurgent Edwards and newcomer Obama, but between the grossly ignorant and the well informed who make up the electorate. I use to think that more civic participation in voting would be a great thing for America, but we have now entered the American Idol age of politics, and that's disgustingly scary for our Democracy.

Nominay January 11, 2008 - 3:39am

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.