The BBC writes:

Ethiopia's Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has acknowledged that his troops cannot withdraw from the conflict in Somalia.

Mr Meles said he had expected to withdraw his soldiers earlier in the year, after Islamists had been driven out of the Somali capital, Mogadishu.

But he said divisions within the Somali government had left it unable to replace the Ethiopians, while not enough peacekeepers had arrived.

Some 60% of Mogadishu residents have fled clashes in the city, the UN says...

...He has always said the Ethiopians would pull out when a peacekeeping force was deployed.

But only 1,600 Ugandans have arrived, from a planned 8,000-strong African Union force.

All of this was predicted at the Agonist at the time of the Ethiopian invasion and occupation at the behest of the US, UN, and a "government" so weak it couldn't even locate itself in Mogadishu. (Except it's even worse than I expected in humanitarian terms.) The Islamic Courts Union (ICU)reopened the port and airport for the first time in over a decade, provided law and order (somewhat medieval law and order) and appeared to be supported by the majority of the population.

This humanitarian disaster would very likely not have happened if the United States, which provided air support and hysterical accusations of al-Qaeda presence, had not pushed for it. It was always obvious that odds of a "peacekeeping" force taking over were minimal. It was always obvious that the "government" was a complete sham. It was always obvious that smashing the ICU in open field battles would just mean that a guerilla war would flare up as a strategy meant to blunt Somalia's superiority in conventional warfare.

The ICU had the apparent support of the population. As such the UN, Ethiopia and the US should have all butted the hell out.

I wonder what Ethiopia thinks of the way they've been left high and dry? They should have known the US probably couldn't twist enough arms any more to get a "Peacekeeping" force into Somalia to occupy the contry instead of them. When has the US under Bush ever come though for any of its allies in any substantial way?

In the meantime, the Ethiopian/Eritrean border is tense, and there are reports of skirmishes. While Al-Qaeda wasn't a huge presence in Somalia under the ICU, I bet it's a large presence now. And if the Somali gueriallas win their war and toss the occupying Ethipians and their Vichy collaborators from the "government" out, well, unlike the ICU, which was desperate for US approval, I have a suspicion they may be somewhat hostile to the US.

I know I would be, to a country that pushed for mine to be invaded, an invasion that led to so much violence that over half of the capital's population fled. And, of course, the Somalis will probably wind up owing al-Qaeda and its fellow travellers a lot for supporting them when no one else did.

Really, what the US needs to do right now, is nothing. Don't talk to anyone. Don't invade anyone. Forbid anyone in government from talking to anyone in a foreign government about anything that isn't routine and technical until Bush is out of power. Because there is no situation so bad that the Bush administration cannot make it worse with their Rambo diplomacy, refusal to acknowledge the sovereignty of the people, and their belief that anyone who they think they can shove around, should be shoved around, just on general principles.

Just do nothing.