Truth and Consequence


Some time ago I read Socrates Cafe, by Christopher Phillips, a philosopher who sets up discussion groups which attempt to answer questions using the Socratic method. It’s not a bad little book, and Phillips and his participants do ask some good questions - and the model of Socrates is certainly one I’ve always admired. But the book got me thinking about the following question - “how do we know what we know?”

The question bothers me, and engages me, because action comes from knowledge (or should). If your knowledge is wrong - your actions will not have the consequences you expect. For me economics, especially development economics, is the paradigmatic case. It turns out that building power infrastructure isn’t the key step to development. It turns out that opening up markets isn’t always a hot idea. It turns out that tariffs do appear to work, under some circumstances. It turns out that what works for a city state is different than what works for a larger nation. It turns out moving to cash crops to generate a surplus may not be such a hot idea. It turns out that government borrowing to “invest” in the economy doesn’t usually work. In fact it turns out that almost everything development “experts” have told the developing world to do over the last fifty years - doesn’t work.

More recently and spectacularly it turns out that Iraqis weren’t going to greet US troops with flowers. It turns out that Saddam didn’t have WMD. It turns out that failing to rebuild Iraq was held against the coalition. It turns out that the number of troops sent in wasn’t sufficient.

The post-modern answer seems to be that the answer is whatever you say it is as long as you can game the system to accept your answer. This works when you’re operating in a system that everyone accepts and which has the surplus to support being wrong. You can think of it in Marxian terms as the superstructure vs. the underlying reality. If you do something that doesn’t mesh with the underlying reality - if the other game participants buy in, then in effect you’re “right”. There are consequences, and those consequences may impoverish or kill people, but you’re rewarded for gaming the system, so from your point of view, who cares? This works as long as you’re in a system with a significant surplus and margin for error. In the US, for a long time, the system was so powerful and rich, that even if your policies made no sense at all (say, Star Wars) it didn’t matter - the system could support the draw down and the supporters of Star Wars are rich, and those who opposed it - well, who cares what they think, anyway? Show me the money, baby!

Now this system of “knowledge” or “truth” breaks down under two circumstances. The first is when the surplus/power isn’t sufficient to support incompetence - to overwhelm the fact that you’re doing things stupidly. The second is when players refuse to play and your power isn’t sufficient to roll over them. If you add the two together, you’ve got a recipe for disaster. Iraq’s a situation where you’ve got both situations - the US isn’t powerful enough to just roll over the Iraqi opposition - and the Iraqis are outside of the game. Now the thing is if you’d bought up the right Iraqis - made them rich and powerful - you’d probably be powerful and have enough surplus to pull it off. And if you were just powerful enough, you wouldn’t have to buy them (though it’d still be smart).

That’s post-modernism. It’s built on the house that modernism built and modernism’s mantra is “follow the discipline”, or “follow the numbers”. You do what the numbers tell you to do. Modernism has its problems - overspecialization and managing what you can measure are two of them. Modern professionals do what their professional understanding tells them to do and if that profession is only measuring part of the problem then they may only be acting on part of the information and in doing so may do the wrong thing. So, for example, Keynesian economics deals primarily with the business cycle in a system where there are no bottlenecks you can’t substitute away from using either labor or capital. When that isn’t true, Keynesian economics doesn’t work. When the problem isn’t the business cycle per se, but deeper structural problem - Keynesian economics doesn’t quite work either.

But modernism has outside discipline - in post-modernism if you’re winning the game you’re right. You know, your truth is the truth. In modernism if the numbers don’t add up, even if you’re making money or if things seem to be ok - you’re wrong and you need to adjust. If the system is still producing a surplus, but the numbers aren’t coming out the way you predicted, as a modernist you need to know why. As a post-modernist, “whatever, it’s working.”

There’s an old saying that runs as follows, “a beautiful theory, slain by an ugly fact.” The problem is that it seems that ugly facts don’t slay beautiful theories any more. The fact is that no nation other than a city state has modernized in modern times by engaging in free trade and free currency flows. Yet it still gets prescribed, because the theory of comparative advantage is so beautiful, that no economist wants to either dump it, or make it work (and it can work, you just need to understand under what circumstances rather than trying to make it a universal law that works under all circumstances.)

This is where the second of the three tests of truth runs up on the shoals of the third (we’ll visit the first test in a moment).

The second test of truth is the test of coherence. Is it internally consistent? Is it logical? That’s the test of coherence. The test of coherence is internal, a theory can be coherent — and absolutely dead wrong. The third test of truth is the pragmatic test. Does it work? So - comparative advantage doesn’t work. Therefore, even if it’s coherent - it’s wrong. Or our understanding of it is wrong.

This is the Iraq test as well. Obviously the NeoCon/Bush understanding of the Iraq occupation and war is wrong. Why? Because it isn’t working. They’re losing. They’re wrong because it’s a clusterfuck. If they were right, they’d be winning.

Now the first test of truth is identity - if I say “the swan is black” and the swan is white, I’m full of it. But the first test of truth is the hardest one. Most things aren’t that clear cut. Sometimes they are - it’s pretty clear that Saddam didn’t have WMD’s of any significance, for example. It’s clear that Iraqis didn’t greet the coalition troops with flowers, as another example. But most of the time you’re operating in an imperfect world where you can’t just say “that doesn’t match with reality.”

So, the development experts who thought that if they built power plants and power lines third world countries would industrialize — most of them were probably operating in good faith. It’s true that first world countries have power plants and power lines. It’s true that third world countries at that time didn’t have those things. It’s true that large scale industry is very difficult to engage in without those things. But it turns out it’s not true that those things are sufficient for modernization. They’re necessary - but not sufficient. It also turns out that they’re perhaps premature - they’d be necessary at some point - but there are steps that have to come first.

And that moves us back to the question “how do you know what you know?” Because if you’re a development expert back in the 50’s you’ve got to fish or cut bait - you’ve got to tell people how to develop or you’ve got to say “don’t know, excuse me, I’m going back to Peoria”. So the development experts looked at the Tennesse Valley Authority and the Marshall Plan, said “hey they seem to be working” and went for it with the best of intentions - and fucked things up unimaginably badly.

And so we come back to - how do you know what you know? Sometimes it’s obvious. Before the Iraq war I was saying “there are no WMD of any significance, the war will be easy and the occupation will be hell.” So were lots of other people. The first was a question of the first and second tests of truth. Identity - there were no WMD being found. Second test, coherence, the administration was constantly being caught out in lies about WMD - the story wasn’t coherent. On the third test - well the Bushies are fuckups, so pragmatically, why would you think they knew what they were talking about?

On the occupation you’re looking at test one and two. Coherence - these people think the Iraqis, who have been under US embargo, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths, are going to greet the US with flowers? Pragmatic - well, see Bush is a fuckup on policy and see “firing the professional staff (Shinseki) when they try and tell you to use the number of troops and tactics which have worked in the past.”

Did you see that phrase “worked in the past”? Well - if something’s worked in the past, maybe you should look at it and emulate it and try and figure out why it worked in the past. Hmmmm?

So when those development experts were trying to give advice, maybe they should have looked at the only non-western country to succesfully modernize and industrialize and try and figure out what it did? Maybe they should have looked at Japan. Because the TVA was not applicable (not a country trying to modernize) and the Marshall Plan was not applicable (modern countries rebuilding, not trying to go from a non-modern to a modern state). But Japan was (at least partially) applicable - a non western country trying to go from a pre-modern to a modern economy. How’d they do it? Well they didn’t do it by building centralized power plants, by dropping tariffs, by inviting in huge factories or by selling commodities. They didn’t do it by importing foreign managers either. In fact they did almost exactly nothing that the development experts were advising their clients to do. Nothing.

So you’ve got a successful model of how to develop and you’ve got a bunch of untested theories based on inapplicable models. Which should you go for? The untested models, of course. Because those models were developed by people like you, not a bunch of geeks. Because those models allow you to sell the developing countries your expertise, your goods and allow you to set up lucrative trade deals. Not only do you get to believe your own theories - you get to profit from it.

How do we know what we know when you actually need to make a decision and take action? Honestly - I don’t know. But I do know you need to ask yourself the three questions I listed above. And I do know that you need to ask yourself:

is there someone who’s done it and succeeded?

And did they actually do what I want to do and start from the same state? Did they really do it? What’s different between what I want to do and where I’m starting from than where they started from?

Am I going to do more harm than good if I’m wrong?

People often say inaction is worse than doing something. They’re wrong. Remember, in any situation you’re walking into there’s already a solution set being applied and if you mess with it, your solution set may be worse.

Now - in a crisis, sometimes you’ve got to take action - because the end state of the current trendline is unacceptable and even if you make it worse - well, dead is dead and dead in three years as opposed to five is still dead, but a chance of life has to be taken.

But in many cases - you need to ask yourself carefully, “do I really know what I think I know? Am I sure enough that I know to take action?”

Because if you don’t answer those questions reality will - and you may not like the answers…


Ian Welsh November 20, 2007 - 6:10am
( categories: Miscellany )

It is well to remind ourselves, in the context of this discussion, that the Bush / Cheney / Rove / neocon approach to “ugly truths” is to deny them, and attack them, including slandering and outright lying. Remember the incredible hubris of “We create our own reality, and while you’re studying that, we’ll create a new reality.” Which makes the first six paragraphs of this article extremely interesting, as it clearly shows the intent to go to war with Iran next:
http://www.motherjones.com/washington_dispatch/2007/11/freedoms-watch-iran.html

It is this approach that has transformed politics; as one observer whose name escapes me at the moment said about the rise of neo-conservatism and the Christian right, “the delusional is no longer marginal.” Truth and reality have become merely pawns in the marketing campaigns of media politics.

Now, on the question of development economics, I believe a large part of the problem is that most of the large projects were sold under the rubric of development economics, but were, from the initial conception and design, intended solely as neo-colonial projects, especially to reap the advantage of labor arbitrage of operating in low-wage countries. The best explication of this is John Perkins in his book, Confessions of an Economic Hitman. Which is doubly interesting, because Perkins also discusses his role, as part of a secret U.S. Treasury team, in persuading the Saudis, to establish the petrodollar market to recycle the billions of dollars pouring into the Middle East after the 1973 oil embargo.

So perhaps development economics were never actually applied in the first place? Only the platitudes were mouthed. Which makes it interesting to recall the incident between Franklin Roosevelt and Winston Churchill at “Atlantic Conference” aboard the U.S. cruiser Augusta in August, 1941. According to FDR’s son, Elliott Roosevelt, in his 1946 book, As He Saw It, there was major disagreement over the policies to be followed after the war. Roosevelt was determined that the colonial economics of the British Empire be terminated once and for all. As Elliott Roosevelt relates it, FDR

remarked, with a sly sort of assurance, “of course, after the war, one of the preconditions of any lasting peace will have to be the greatest possible freedom of trade."

He paused. The P.M.'s head was lowered; he was watching Father steadily, from under one eyebrow.

"No artificial barriers," Father pursued. "As few favored economic agreements as possible. Opportunities for expansion. Markets open for healthy competition." His eye wandered innocently around the room.

Churchill shifted in his armchair. "The British Empire trade agreements," he began heavily, "are…“

Father broke in. "Yes. Those Empire trade agreements are a case in point. It's because of them that the people of India and Africa, of all the colonial Near East and Far East, are still as backward as they are."

Churchill's neck reddened and he crouched forward. "Mr. President, England does not propose for a moment to lose its favored position among the British Dominions. The trade that has made England great shall continue, and under conditions prescribed by England's ministers."

"You see," said Father slowly, "it is along in here somewhere that there is likely to be some disagreement between you, Winston, and me. I am firmly of the belief that if we are to arrive at a stable peace it must involve the development of backward countries. Backward peoples. How can this be done? It can't be done, obviously, by eighteenth-century methods. Now-"

"Who's talking eighteenth-century methods?"

"Whichever of your ministers recommends a policy which takes wealth in raw materials out of a colonial country, but which returns nothing to the people of that country in consideration. Twentieth-century methods involve bringing industry to these colonies. Twentieth-century methods include increasing the wealth of a people by increasing their standard of living, by educating them, by bringing them sanitation-by making sure that they get a return for the raw wealth of their community." (See pages 35-39.)

Which, in turn, makes the following fact interesting:

The global foreign exchange market, easily the largest financial market, is dominated by London. More than half of the trades in the derivatives market are handled in London, which straddles the time zones between Asia and the U.S. And the trading rooms in the Square Mile, as the City of London financial district is known, are responsible for almost three-quarters of the trades in the secondary fixed-income markets.

How do you say in French, that wonderful French witticism, “The more things change, the more they remain the same”?

Tony Wikrent November 20, 2007 - 9:58am

Just to broaden the topic, consider the paradigm of four dimensional spacetime; Three dimensions are nothing more then the coordinate system of the point the three lines cross. While it is as necessary to have some frame of reference to define space as it is necessary to have a starting date for a calendar, it is still an arbitrary point of reference. The fact is that any number of such points and frames can be used to define the same space. Competing frames of reference and the systems of organization they represent are the cause of conflict. You might say Arabs and Israelis use different coordinate systems to define the same space. This is largely the basis of Chaos Theory, where the rules may be determined, but the outcome cannot be predicted because intersecting processes yield unpredictable results, even, as experiments with cellular automata have shown, where it is feedback within the same initial structure. While any given map of space may be three dimensional, the reality is infinitely dimensional.

Is time a dimension, or process? Consider; If two atoms collide, it creates an event in time. While the atoms proceed through this event and on to others, the event goes the other way. First it is in the future, then in the past. This relationship prevails at every level of complexity. The rotation of the earth, relative to the radiation of the sun, goes from past events to future ones, while the units of time/days go from being in the future to being in the past. To the hands of the clock, the face goes counterclockwise.

So which is the real direction? If time is a fundamental dimension, then physical reality proceeds along it, from past events to future ones. On the other hand, if time is a consequence of motion, then physical reality is simply energy in space and the events created go from future potential, to present, to being in the past. Just as the sun appears to go from east to west, when the reality is the earth rotates west to east.

With reality as energy just moving around, previous information is constantly being recycled by and giving structure to the present, as the energy by which it is recorded continues on its path. Rather then the straight line of a dimension, time is a loop, where the new is being woven out of strands pulled from the past. The result is also a state of constant chaos, since it is energy from opposing frames that often comes in contact.

Time as consequence of motion means it has more in common with temperature, then space, which certainly is not intuitive, but it is logical, since they are both descriptions of and methods for measuring motion. Scalar and vector. A fractured and fractious political landscape lacks concern for the future and consideration of the past, so it is best defined by the level of activity that is temperature then the linear progression of time.

Using time as a dimension is like dissecting an organism. It lays everything out there for you to look at and poke and examine, but it’s rather lifeless. What if there is no dimension of time and reality really is just that ethereal energy radiating and clumping in space, with history and all the intellectual structure we attach to it as nothing more then the metaphorical tail of a comet. Is it any wonder that the more we poke at it, the more illusionary it all seems?

Rather then dimensions being reality, they are a crude tool for prying it apart. Math is a model of reality, not the ideal form of it.

This relationship defines life as well. The element of awareness is attached to the energy and moves forward in time, but our intellectual comprehension is information that is constantly receding into the past. Ultimately we are cells of a larger organism that is constantly moving on to the next generation and shedding the old like dead skin. It is the units of time that are our individual lives which start in the future and end up in the past.

brodix November 20, 2007 - 1:43pm

Remember after 9-11 when some on the right decreed that 'relativism' along with 'irony' had come to an end?

Seems more like it was the total embrace of nihilism by the right.

For them 'relativism' was equated with 'blame America first,' and blame America first was a pejorative for anyone daring to recount recent history. Forget about Iran in '53 - what about BOTH Bin Laden and Hussein being one time "allies?" Yet anybody - say Studs Terkel - who even dared to hint that, hey, maybe if we didn't engage in so much skulduggery with such unsavory characters, we wouldn't get the 'blowback' (read: Karma). You couldn't suggest overthrowing legit democracies - like '53 Iran - would lead to bad outcomes - it was too PAINFUL to tell the truth.

You saw this notion of "Faith = Fact" - the GW Bush method of governance in the fascisto trope among the right to assign blame for military failures to 'defeatist' leftists. The same thing was done to labour unions and even the Catholic Church under Mussolini. Literally if you thought the war was a bad idea - then that meant you were 'hexing' the war somehow and causing it to fail - even though, in the Iraq case, the 'hex' actually came BEFORE the war (big protests in November '02 and February '03).

So to go back to the classical Athens theme, this quote from Plato:

"They count him as their worst enemy, he who tells them the truth."

I guess I don't buy the notion of 'post modernism.' To me the Bush years smack of both a dystopian, Orwellian future, yet evoke the classical tragedy of a fall from grace through hubris.

It seems though, in Bush's case, Freud enters the picture, because he's so willfully obtuse and, pathetically, prone to denial. I think that's why he must be prosecuted and punished for war crimes. Maybe at the gallows he'll finally see what he has wrought.

KingElvis November 20, 2007 - 2:25pm

who decreed that there was "no moral equivalent" between 9/11 and the oppression of the Palestinians. I always read that as meaning that Christian and Jewish white people dying had more value, in Rudy's mind at least, than the death of Muslims. I remember that on 9/11, after returning home from my work in downtown Manhattan, my wife and I went out on an errand in the car and saw some of our Orthodox Jewish neighbors walking home from the bus stop. Her first impulse (voiced to me but unrequited) was to roll the the window and shout, "Are you happy now!" It was a kinda you reap what you sow moment.


“I despise ideologues masquerading as objective journalists.” - Bill O'Reilly, March 30, 2007

Mark November 20, 2007 - 9:26pm

A model based upon expanding into new areas, and bringing in the economics of Rome, the currencies, the laws. With all the surface 'benefits' Rome as protectorate was without peer, and tribal warfare in the areas occupied indeed declined. A sort of peace. The rich in these areas benefiting, but the poor being taxed (in Rome the rich never were).

But the blending of disparate cultures never worked, and the purpose was nothing but the exploitation of these areas, drained the soils of agricultural products, animals, minerals, metals, wood. The excessive wealth that flowed from the edges of the empire into the center had nowhere to go except to Palatine, for ever more lavish lives. But there was food, and there was entertainment and throughout Rome the populations grew. Those from the outside of Rome wanted in, and pressed against the borders. An early colonialism.

The religious fixation of Rome in decline, the decorum and purity. The religiosity. Oddly opposite of Rome ascendant. The mercenary army, because of an inability to get the Roman citizens to join the military.

The hollowing out of the middle class with fees, and taxes, and rules, and bureaucracy. The lending to the poor and middle class by the upper class landowners, and the way they would confiscate the small houses when the loans could not be paid.

A Republic in name only. All power with the executive. A Senate that did nothing at all.

The shortages of grain, cement, lead, wood, stone at the end.

The ever strengthening noble estates (our equivalent of corporations) who could bend the politicians to their whims. The early breakfast/pubs (the Starbucks of their age) in Rome where the politicians would sit down with the estate owners and drink and eat together, and be given their marching orders for the day.

The fateful year the Rhine froze and the Germanic tribes could cross into Rome in numbers that defy description, but probably more than 50,000 running through the Roman soldier mercenaries, running for Rome. Alaric standing at the gate, met by messengers of Caesar (who no longer lived in Rome but a palatial estate to the north eternally on vacation). Telling the crowds they would be destroyed, and Alaric calling the bluff. What do you want, he was asked. All the gold, the furnishings, the cloth, the spices, anything that can be moved. What can we have in return they asked. He answered, your lives. It was the end.

Scotjen61 November 20, 2007 - 5:54pm

(eom)

Gordon November 20, 2007 - 7:08pm

But that pressure on the other side. It would happen some year, and then . . .

So what is the trigger. I even see an equivalency to global warming. What are the triggers. Where are the pressure points, where a single event causes this cascade of events?

Scotjen61 November 21, 2007 - 11:24am

anything can serve as the trigger.

Gordon November 21, 2007 - 1:24pm

Ian, your argument holds if you believe that the public goals of the policy-makers you criticise are really the goals of the policies. But it's not like you to put so much faith in right-wing economists and politicians!

I know that you know that most of these stated goals are politics. No conspiracy theory here, far from it. But there is plenty of everyday political diversion and obfuscation behind a lot of the situations you describe above, and I think the US actually succeeded more often that it failed in many of them.

I'd suggest that trying to replicate Japanese economic success acros south-east Asia, South America or Africa was more or less the very last thing most US economic advisors or politicians wanted.

In fact, there's been a pretty good outcome to a lot of this development from the US corporate right's point of view. Plenty of low-wage, low-rights economies in the developing world - even Vietnam - where multinational corporations can base production while much of the the profit ends up back in (private) American hands.

Likewise with the WMD and 'hailed as liberators' memes. They served their purpose, up to a point, though even I imagine from Dick C's perspective the project is off-course now. But as far as I remember almost nobody - not, according to the record, even some Bush regimers like Condy - held those views, believed those 'truths' in summer 2001, so it's not exactly lack of knowledge or failure to appreciate that knowledge that was at stake.

I think you're right when you say 'Now this system of “knowledge” or “truth” breaks down under two circumstances. The first is when the surplus/power isn’t sufficient to support incompetence - to overwhelm the fact that you’re doing things stupidly. The second is when players refuse to play and your power isn’t sufficient to roll over them. If you add the two together, you’ve got a recipe for disaster.'

The one caveat I have is that though a lot of the actions look stupid and incompetent, those are just descriptions, not explanations.

I think it's very important to try to get a deeper understanding of the processes at work in all this, and I think you've opened a really important point for discussion from an interesting perspective.

But I kind of disagree with your invocation of post-modernism here, at least as I understand the broad aims of the theoretical tools you're talking about.

The most useful post-modern political/philosophical/cultural theorists don't offer relativism as a new ethical model, but the opposite.

The aim is to uncover the hidden assumptions, unspoken aims and power relations that lead certain knowledge to be created, framed or used in the construction of 'truth'. In other words, to demonstrate the ideological nature of this 'truth'.

This is the difference between your analysis above, which in part frames these things as honest mistakes that follow from flawed methods, and an analysis that sees them as temporary 'truths' created by power.

This isn't a situation caused by 'post-modernism', it's a situation about which (at least certain) post-60s theory actually more often makes an accusation - a precise, ethical accusation about abuse of power and abuse of 'truth'.

I disagree that US failures as you describe them are due to lack of appreciation of reality. They're due to (mostly right wing, and corporate) ideological aims and a faith in power - military power ultimately - over-riding competing interpretations of known facts, multi-lateralist and domestic democratic concerns and leading to a particular construction of 'truth'.

Of course every interested party in this discussion - an international discussion that is basically politics and its military twin - has its own version of the 'truth'.

But the fact that these ideologies blind their participants to some of the potential outcomes is not due to a failure to understand some basic underlying dynamic. They are not interested in deeply understanding 'real' situations or underlying trends, because they are not following historical patterns but trying to break them.

This faith in power is always a gamble. Even the most power-obssessed politicians, emperors, dictators and demagogues understand this. History is littered with examples of hubris backfiring. The point is that they can't not try, given an ideological conviction and access to the levers of power. 'Truth' is just something manufactured along the way.

The underlying reality remains real, but in plain language there are facts and there are the interpretations of those facts.

The point about 'post-modern' (i actually kind of dislike the term itself) approaches to those interpretations is that they don't concede the judgement of ethical rights and wrongs to manufactured 'truths'. Instead they try to take those assertions apart.

Ethics and beliefs remain unchanged and, in the grand-scale cases you're talking about, history still unfolds. But then the dominant ideology puts its interpretation on that history - 'Mission Accomplished' - and that interpretation itself has real-world effects.

As an antagonist to these dominant processes, you're not opposing them with 'truth' but with a different set of values that give a different interpretation and even a different way to define the facts to be considered. Those values are not 'reality' - they're not generated from the sum total of all positions and experiences, for example. But they nonetheless have a real-world constituency, rational arguments and plausible hoped-for outcomes to back them up.

Ultimately, there's a power-struggle over 'reality'. It doesn't matter that the whole is too comlex to grasp, because total apprehension is never the goal. Marx famously wrote, 'the philosophers have only interpreted the world. The point is to change it.' But the interpretations are part of the process of change, that's where politics begins to function.

billy68 November 20, 2007 - 7:28pm

Billy. What you describe when you talk both about me and about post modernists is that truth is essentially impossible to know, that there is no touchstone to reach back to. That's very different from Modernism and taken to its logical conclusion it means "It's all just a game", one set of beliefs is as good as another.

That sort of relativism, while it may be intellectually respectable, is death to societies. Perhaps it is a "lie" in intellectual terms to think there is a truth (though I'm old fashioned enough to say that while we can't get the Truth, we can get closer) but it is necessary for proper social functioning. When it's all just a game, and you can make up your own truth, well, you get stuff like Bush.

Ian Welsh November 20, 2007 - 8:23pm

Moral or amoral, it is an attempt to place bottom up process within a frame of top down order. The result is an aging process, where successful frames eventually fail and the process can be slow and painful. The more successful the model, the more potential for destruction in its fall. Corruption, decay, disease, death are all natural functions, but they are past effects that living functions move away from, not toward. Whether a scab over a wound or just dead skin, when it is most hard and brittle is when it is closest to being shed. The current administration is actually a healthy response, given the number of social disfunctions gathered within it, sort of like a rash coming to a head as a boil. If Gore or Kerry had won, the Republicans would still control the House and Senate. Just think of how bad it could have become, had these elements chosen halfway competent leadership. The model wasn't going to last, as it used recources at an unreplacable rate, so that the faster it self destructs, the healthier the situation will be in the long run.

Energy goes past to future. Information goes future to past. See above.

brodix November 21, 2007 - 12:13pm

"Ultimately, there's a power-struggle over 'reality'. It doesn't matter that the whole is too comlex to grasp, because total apprehension is never the goal. Marx famously wrote, 'the philosophers have only interpreted the world. The point is to change it.' But the interpretations are part of the process of change, that's where politics begins to function."

This is the great danger of humanity. The classic period, at least recognized, the danger of human meddling in reality as hubris. Man as God. It will be an issue that needs to be solved or we WILL ultimately destroy ourselves. Willy Nilly change to an ego derived 'good' and lack of reflection - interpretation. I believe that very phrase is why the planet is so hopelessly polluted today - and by the way why the pollution is so much worse in communist countries. There is absolutely no interpretation of the world, only a drive toward change to the ends of human desire and ego.

Marx was doing nothing more than reinserting classical truth into the modern sphere, taking the worst aspects of both period. Taking the mind-feeling philosophy of truth and pairing it with the discoveries of scientific discovery. At heart he was an anti-modern who desired to use the tools of modernism to turn the world back (same as Bush). He was a catholic jew who hated catholicism for its hatred of jews, but never let go the teachings. He wanted modernism harnessed to classical truth. It was catholicism wherein the pope would be replaced by a secular modern state. It was Augustines City of God, built by the 'enlightened' ones and populated with automatons, using science. Bush's views are very very similar to that line of thinking. Bush and Marx are twins separated at birth.

Scotjen61 November 21, 2007 - 12:07pm

Truth is beyond tricky. Your view of truth tells more about you than you do about truth. Bush's truth is a platonic, even Augustinian Truth. It is also blended with the Truth of the old testament. Augustine's view of truth was a 'feeling,' and like Plato it was something that was contained entirely within your thoughts. There was no concept of an external test of truth, truth was above the body, above the visible world. It resided in your spirit in the spark of your soul.

That is entirely compatible with Bush's Truth, the way he says "I know it in my Gut." Or, "I feel it in my Gut." Or, "I KNOW its True." He needs no external verification. He also says, "God Talks to me." In those very words. God is communicating with Bush, telling him what is true, telling him he is where he is for a fateful reason. Old Testament Truth. God tells his people to tear down the walls of a town and kill all the men, women and children, and they MUST obey. It is gods TRUTH. That is old testament truth.

That is an ancient, classical, medieval Truth. It is not Renaissance or Modern Truth however.

It is utterly flawed to view Modernism or Post-Modernist truth as relative in the sense it seems to imply nothing, or wishy washy, as in social relativism.

Renaissance and Modern Truth is based on what can be seen. Testable, measurable. As in Peak oil, as in Global warming. These truths also have their flaw because it does not deal with what we do not yet know, it does not deal with what we cannot know. Modern truth has given us more food than we can know what to do with, something unthinkable just 100 years ago. But it has also given us obesity, climate change and declining water supplies.

That the modern view sees little difference between Muslim 'faith' and Christian 'faith' in my view is a potential immeasurable good. Seeing the syncretism of all faith, the common elements. Because we are human. We are social creatures who need one another, all the faiths build on that. So then there is something else, and it isn't truth - it is perhaps compassion, or hope. That that is lacking in modern truth speaks not to the truths, I think it is more to do with the isolation of the wealthy from the poor, or the learned from the unlearned, the healthy from the sick, even the old from the young. Not the fault of truth, just an unwillingness to see the world from the eyes of another - which is compassion. To feel the pain of loss even though you don't know that person.

So Bush follows a truth, but it is devoid of compassion. He could just as easily been following a modern truth philosophy - probably been more effective. But, I would argue without the essential compassionate spark, probably the results would be even worse. In that we would probably be in Iran by now, having taken the oil of Iraq. Or who knows what else?

Following rules to follow rules, is neither truth nor compassion. It is abdication, and very common. The old studies where people were instructed to give shocks to others belies the lack of humanity in large swaths of people, who think neither of truth nor hope nor compassion. It is a scary feature of us all. We are collectively capable of just about anything.

Relativism is not the death of a society. I believe it is the window to a better society. Loss of compassion is the death of society. The hyper individual who cares nothing for the common good. The one who believes he can get through life with no one. It is inhuman. It is the INABILITY to see the relation of everyone to everyone else that kills off society, community, family.

Scotjen61 November 21, 2007 - 11:41am

Barbara over at Mahablog did a very nice series on the Wisdom of Doubt, (mainly focused on or around religion).

It's not just lack of compassion. It takes a lot of courage to recognize that everything you know just might turn out to be wrong.

Gordon November 21, 2007 - 1:36pm

recognizing you might be wrong is at the center of being able to see outside your own little world. Doubt is a part of compassion.

Scotjen61 November 21, 2007 - 2:24pm

there is, or every can be a knowable truth, quickly leads to a slippery slide and "we make our own reality". This isn't just about Bush, the exact same thing happened in financial markets.

Of course, reality eventually catches up, but a lot of people suffer as a result.

Ian Welsh November 22, 2007 - 2:56am

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