Katrina and the Wildfires


If only it were a band and not a series of recent American disasters.

Yesterday while working out I got to see some of CNN's coverage of the wildfires. CNN took a long tour of the stadium where a lot of people were staying, showing all the amenities available and the services. It was clean, well run, and no one was being locked up inside in indescribably filthy conditions by guards with guns.

And I thought to myself, "If I were a black American, or if I were a (former) resident of New Orleans, I'd be beyond livid today."

And, of course, many people in California have lost everything, and will find little aid in the future or even today, I'm sure.

Nonetheless the contrast was just so striking between the way that New Orleans refugees were mistreated and the way that California wildfire refugees are being handled. Now you could say that Katrina was worse, it was harder to get supplies in, etc. -- but that's only partially true. It was hard to get supplies into New Orleans because federal authorities turned them back, turned back volunteers, and sat on warehouses full of goods they were unable or unwilling to deliver and which they wouldn't let others deliver.

All that before you get to people being held at gunpoint in that cesspool of an arena.

So that's a difference between Katrina and the Southern California wildfires. But in a larger sense, the similarities are much more striking.

In both cases bad land management has contributed to the disaster. In the case of Southern California, a huge contributing factor was the way that proper clearing of underbrush hasn't been done, not, as some say, because of environmentalists, but because the Forest Service simply doesn't have the money. In the case of Katrina, the destruction of natural swamps that had formed a barrier which soaked up huge amounts of water and thus mitigated against flooding was a major contributor to the severity of the damage. In both cases extensive suburban and exurban tract land has expanded into wilderness areas that were very high risk, and which should probably have been left uninhabited. It's getting so that if you're on the coast in hurricane country you can't get disaster insurance. I suspect that soon enough you won't be able to get fire insurance in Southern California.

Both cases also demonstrate very well the principle that if you won't pay for maintenane and prevention upfront, you'll pay on the back end by losing everything. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger vetoed 4 out of 5 bills intended to strengthen fire departments by adding new staff and equipment after the disastrous 2003 fire season. This is partially a partisan point (the Democrats passed them, he vetoed them) but in another sense it's just a continuation of Californian citizens' unwillingness to pay taxes for anything -- schools, fire departments, universities -- ever since Proposition 13. You get what you pay for. Californians have been consistently unwilling to pay for government services and now, harsh as it may sound, they're paying for them on the back end -- by losing their homes.

It is especially rich in irony that most of the areas being destroyed are heavily Republican and very wealthy. I'm sure, however, that the connection between their aggressive refusal to pay "more" taxes and the loss of their multi-million dollar homes isn't sinking in.

And at the federal level the Bush administration has run the Forest department, as usual, primarily as a political and pork machine. It put resources where they would do the most political good, not where they were most needed to fight fires. It insisted on continuing to hire contractors who had had performance issues in the past. There isn't an adequate fire fighting plan overall. And the department needs about 300 managers for fire fighting and has a hundred. (The department is training another hundred, leaving a gap of a hundred more. Consequently right now, as California is burning, its staffing level is at one-third full.) And the GAO has found many other problems. They sum up to incompetence, corruption and elevating political needs above operational ones.

New Orleans, of course, was destroyed because the levees failed. And they failed because they weren't properly built or maintained. Furthermore, for decades, everyone had known that if the Big Easy got hit by the Big Storm, the levees probably couldn't take it. And the Army Corp of Engineers and the politicians who control its funding never, ever, fixed it. In other words, New Orleans' destruction was a matter of playing the odds. Any given year it was unlikely, but as the decades went by it was damn near inevitable that a big storm would hit shoddy levees not designed to take the hit anyway, and flood the city.

Society is going to have start thinking about the cost of being cheap and the true cost of exurbs and suburbs. When you build in places that are dangerous -- like hurricane coasts or wildfire zones, bad things are bound to happen eventually. When you refuse to pay to maintain the environment properly, whether in terms of brush clearing in California or in terms of maintaining the swamps that surrounded New Orleans (or creating new ones or barrier islands), you increase the odds of catastrophe. Oh, it seems like an easy choice to cut a 100 million here or there by cutting fire services, or the forest department, but in the end you'll pay a hundred times more in property damage and lost lives.

You can pay up front, or you can pay more on the back end.

There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch

(Photo by Andrew Gornbert / EPA)


Ian Welsh October 25, 2007 - 11:00am
( categories: USA )

As an interesting point of historical comparison, the mindset leading to the Russian Revolution really got rolling--not in 1905 or 1917--but in 1891 (or 1894?) when hot dry weather wiped out the crops and caused a famine.

The imperial authorities ran their government just as Republicans do. They put the interests of loyalists and buddies ahead of their civic responsibilities. To enrich grain merchants, Russia continued to export grain even as hundreds of thousands of people starved. Corrupt officials did nothing to assist victims. The government even denied a disaster was occurring, censoring the word "famine" from its accounts and impeded assistance efforts until it was too late. Sound familiar?

What happened as a result is that whatever moral authority and trust the Tsarist government had enjoyed was eroded significantly. To stay in power it had to rely more an more on repression and terror, which further undermined its moral authority. But the government was so incompetent that it was inevitable that it would create crises out of nothing and worsen crises that were unavoidable. Would you believe that in WWI, armaments manufacturers went out of business because corrupt War Ministry officials would only do business with the largest factories? And while this was going on, Russian troops had to face the mighty German army without bullets and artillery. In the end, a lot of the problems that we're starting to see now led people half a world away and a century ago to at best not care what happened to the Romanovs: endless war, rampant inflation, gross incompetence, bureaucratic anarchy and stupidity, ad nauseam. The Romanov style of rule radicalized the rest.

With Congress at 11% approval and the president at 24%, and all parties seemingly committed to continuing the war and doing nothing to prepare for the true crises our country faces, this continued incompetent response to disaster is not a good sign. As confidence in government collapses, does this mean terror will follow?

Mr. Flibble October 25, 2007 - 11:34am

I've been thinking of some of the more venal and corrupt Popes, but even the worst of them had too much style (well, so did some of the Romanovs, but nobody knows that).

Gordon October 25, 2007 - 1:22pm

I'd be remiss, too, if I didn't point out that Nicholas II was a firm believer in the "unitary executive" theory of governance at a time when Russia was clamoring for a government of public confidence (rather than a government of the Tsar's lackeys). And he thought in terms of with us/against us. He subscribed also to the Republican theory of negotiating--i.e., bipartisanship being like date rape (though Nicky wouldn't have stated it so crudely). He was the Decider.

And see where it got him.

Mr. Flibble October 25, 2007 - 2:16pm

Autocratic, blind, goverments.
When the disparities get unsurmountable that's what you get.
And looking at the state of planetary economies the US will not be the only one to get a keck of a shake down, China, Russia will probably get it to.
These time are really scary.
You can't always give to your best buddies and neglect the mob when you want stability in any country.

Jelco Cathlon October 25, 2007 - 3:37pm

Bush is at 24%? He's tied Nixon!

Bolo October 25, 2007 - 2:03pm

After days of fire planes and helicopters in the air working, the skies are quiet today. Why? The asshat in chief is doing his flyover. I seriously hope he leaves soon so the firefighters can get back to work.

I am livid that our firefighting efforts have to stop for this fucktard to take a tour.

FEMA and Bush, get the fuck out of SoCal. We don't want or need you here.

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”

Charles Darwin

darwin October 25, 2007 - 12:13pm

Our society has lots of individuals who are good at adapting to local environments, but our government does a terrible job of it.

Yesterday I saw a climatologist on Fox (strange, but true). He spoke about how southern Californians live in a drought-prone area, and how the local vegetation has evolved to utilize periodic fires as a means of reproducing. So what do we do? We build houses right on top of hills that periodically burn. The anchor sat there and nodded, but don't you know that same anchor would nod for the next anti-tax fool who proposed cutting funds for that same climatologist, not to mention gutting regulations for zoning hillside homes.

Katrina and the California wildfire are great examples of our society's failure to adapt to nature. Whenever that happens, nature will eventually snap back and destroy what we have built. In the case of soCal, it's inevitable that there will be more fires. It's also inevitable that the longer we suppress them, the larger and hotter they will burn, later on. Nature scolds us with large disasters. Are we listening?

It's not Murphy's Law; it's Darwin's Guarantee: Adapt, or perish.

"Death before being dishonored any more." - Col. Ted Westhusing

Jimbo92107 October 25, 2007 - 2:16pm

You can pay up front, or you can pay more on the back end.

Except that people really see that as "I can pay up front, or they can pay more on the back end - and who cares about that?" That the disasters will always happen to other people, and furthermore, that they will happen to other KINDS of people, who probably deserve it anyway somehow.

tatere@drupal.org October 25, 2007 - 2:17pm

I was at an evacuation center for one night in San Marcos. What is striking is how white and middle class the people effected by the fires are. The victims of the Witch fire are overwhelmingly white and well-off and also Republican. Bush will take care of these folks, they are his base. There is no need for ethnic cleansing in North San Diego County. It is not an accident that Bush is visiting south Escondido and Rancho Bernardo. He will not visit or acknowledge the victims south of San Diego because they are more ethnically and politically diverse.

surfk9 October 25, 2007 - 2:24pm

Every counties preparation is different. Counties have primary wildfire resposnibility in CA, and are usually the only ones in immediate position for initial repsonse. Some contract with State division of forestry, and CDF and National forest are part of joint teams in many areas. LA, San Bernardino, Ventura, and even Republican arctype Orange county all spend much more per capita and per sq mile than San Diego. The result:
LA county 5 fires (4 over 1000 acres) 104,181 acres, 28 homes and 2 commercial bldgs lost, no deaths, so far $19.8M to fight the fires.
SD County 8 fires (5 over 1000 acres) 350,293 acres, 1483 homes and 34 commercial buildings lost, 7 deaths and $16.7M to fight the fires.
SB County 6 fires (2 over 1000 acres) 15,011 acres, 300 homes lost $5.7M to fight the fires. (SB 2 large fires are crown fires, tall trees, not brush)
The property damage probably means over a $Billion in taxpayer aid and insurance claims in SD, $150M in SB and $20M in LA. Dwarfs the cost of fighting the fires.

It is not an accident that the last two major seasons have seen the worst fires in San Diego, they refuse to pay. A fire chief quit at the height of his career due to lack of funding (see http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-lopez24oct24,1,2517947.column).
In typical monied fashion those $3M homeowners have a solution for themselves, private fire service: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-richfire26oct26,0,3352683.story?coll=la-home-center
The state resources usually arrive after the fire has grown, if you want to stop it you have to hit a fire very early, not 2 hours later, hence the money spent locally decides which fires have the best chance of growing.
Preventative measures are always best, areas with brush clearance have survived much better, enclosed eaves and fire breaks surrounding property, thinning fuel in the mountains, especially removing dead trees. Maybe this is something insurance companies can push, after all we are seeing health insurance getting on board with preventative care.
Unfortunately requiring preventative work usually is a "government intervention" and those who won't pay for government services usually don't want government to tell property owners anything either (San Diego again). That also means the same people will never zone intelligently because that "takes" value from property.
Bottom line is the rest of us will pay a lot more for San Diego's stupidity.

casci October 26, 2007 - 12:42pm

The scale of disaster, especially in terms of infrastructure and affected population percentage, of Katrina makes the the Southern California fires look like a fart in a snowstorm.

There is no structural damage to the highways.
The electrical systems are still up and running.
The cell phone system is still up and running.

Katrina displaced more than 1 million of the 1.4 million people in New Orleans - basically the entire city. Over Southern California there have been about 1 million of 24 million people evacuated. Even if we assume that's only San Diego, there's a world of difference between 1 in 6 million, and 1 in 1.4 million.

Oh, and there was a firestorm in 2003, and wildfires are basically an ongoing issue in Southern California - and have been going on here or there for months. (Compare this to New Orleans which was last hit full-on by a hurricane in 1979.)

NateTG October 25, 2007 - 2:30pm

both were made worse by the decision to not adequately prepare.

And the numbers amuse me.

California has higher numbers if you divide by the population of the US, after all.

Ian Welsh October 25, 2007 - 3:48pm

Al Kamen | October 26

WaPo - FEMA has truly learned the lessons of Katrina. Even its handling of the media has improved dramatically. For example, as the California wildfires raged Tuesday, Vice Adm. Harvey E. Johnson, the deputy administrator, had a 1 p.m. news briefing.

Reporters were given only 15 minutes' notice of the briefing, making it unlikely many could show up at FEMA's Southwest D.C. offices. They were given an 800 number to call in, though it was a "listen only" line, the notice said -- no questions. Parts of the briefing were carried live on Fox News, MSNBC and other outlets.
Johnson stood behind a lectern and began with an overview before saying he would take a few questions. The first questions were about the "commodities" being shipped to Southern California and how officials are dealing with people who refuse to evacuate. He responded eloquently.

He was apparently quite familiar with the reporters -- in one case, he appears to say "Mike" and points to a reporter -- and was asked an oddly in-house question about "what it means to have an emergency declaration as opposed to a major disaster declaration" signed by the president. He once again explained smoothly.

FEMA press secretary Aaron Walker interrupted at one point to caution he'd allow just "two more questions." Later, he called for a "last question."

"Are you happy with FEMA's response so far?" a reporter asked. Another asked about "lessons learned from Katrina."

"I'm very happy with FEMA's response so far," Johnson said, hailing "a very smoothly, very efficiently performing team."

"And so I think what you're really seeing here is the benefit of experience, the benefit of good leadership and the benefit of good partnership," Johnson said, "none of which were present in Katrina." (Wasn't Michael Chertoff DHS chief then?) Very smooth, very professional. But something didn't seem right. The reporters were lobbing too many softballs. No one asked about trailers with formaldehyde for those made homeless by the fires. And the media seemed to be giving Johnson all day to wax on and on about FEMA's greatness.

Of course, that could be because the questions were asked by FEMA staffers playing reporters. We're told the questions were asked by Cindy Taylor, FEMA's deputy director of external affairs, and by "Mike" Widomski, the deputy director of public affairs. Director of External Affairs John "Pat" Philbin asked a question, and another came, we understand, from someone who sounds like press aide Ali Kirin.



Turn back to the Constitution - and
READ it.

Rick October 26, 2007 - 9:05am

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