Credit Rating As The One And Only


The Consumerist notes:

For a decade now, all the major auto insurers have used a customer's credit rating to some degree in determining premiums. They claim that it results in lower rates for "most" customers, and that the data prove that people with lower credit scores make more claims and for higher amounts. The FTC released a report this summer that validated the practice—but also confirmed an unpleasant truth critics have been saying for years: because a higher percentage of Hispanics and African-Americans have low credit scores, there's a good chance they're disproportionately affected.

Another article uses a side-by-side comparison that really shows the disparity: "Using credit scores is likely to mean that 64 percent of African Americans, 53 percent of Hispanics, 38 percent of non-Hispanic whites and 34 percent of Asians would pay higher premiums the FTC said."

It's also become fairly common to use credit ratings when looking at job applicants. Below a certain rating? No job for you!

This sort of stuff tends to rise to the level of statistical significance - people with high credit ratings, on average, are less likely to leave the job in 6 months, steal from their employers, and so on. People with low credit ratings are poorer on average and are less likely to keep their auto in good repair, thus are likely to have more accidents.

More After the Jump

But everyone, or almost everyone, in this society, needs both a job and a car. And "on average" always contains a multitude of sins, because what works on a statistical basis is bound to create huge injustices to large numbers of individuals. Tons of people with low credit ratings are excellent drivers who take good care of their cars. And tons of people who have low credit ratings would be good workers.

And since the society all but requires you to have both a job and a car (and having a car means you must buy insurnace), making it harder, or impossible, to get either based on statistical reasoning is something which shouldn't be allowed, because it is fundamentally unjust to judge people by group rather than individual characteristics when it comes to providing the basic necessities of life and opportunity.

Which, as an aside, is why insurance that is mandatory should be simply provided by the government out of tax revenues (for example, a gasoline tax, in the case of auto insurance) and everyone should be covered. Individual mandates; requiring insurance of people; is just a tax by another name and it should be treated as such. It would be cheaper and it would be more just.


Ian Welsh October 9, 2007 - 5:03am
( categories: The Markets )

I'm still waiting for the "savings" insurance companies were sure would be forthcoming once everyone was coerced by the state to get it.

Lesly October 9, 2007 - 6:23am

ian - your pic is pretty big for dial-up readers (436 KB?), any chance you could use a compressed version? thanks!

selise October 9, 2007 - 6:32am

a high credit rating and gets cable.

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

mauberly October 9, 2007 - 7:17am

strange, I woke up w/ a new understanding of the parable of the Good Samaritan. and there you were.

good one maub. no dis at you Ian.

dk October 9, 2007 - 7:17am

it's the fair Isaac of the old testament.

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

mauberly October 9, 2007 - 7:19am

just went up; why can't the government put a floor under all bedraggled drivers?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az.iaaB4XOXE&refer=home

http://mauberly.blogspot.com/

mauberly October 9, 2007 - 8:21am

keep 'em coming. that was a fruitful laugh!

dk October 9, 2007 - 8:49am

Home insurance should too come out of everybody's taxes? I don't own a car, so, of course, I'm against subsidizing other people's car insurance.

creativelcro October 9, 2007 - 11:10am

you don't buy gas, which is the logical place to put the tax.

Of course, that's liability only, because that's the only one mandated. Which makes the comparison argument for mandated health insurance ludicrous - I can't sue you for sneezing on me and giving me a cold.

House insurance is yet another matter. You get that for the bank. If you own free and clear, it's not required. The one that conceivably could be mandated (general liability) is voluntary.

Gordon October 10, 2007 - 8:59pm

House insurance is yet another matter. You get that for the bank. If you own free and clear, it's not required. The one that conceivably could be mandated (general liability) is voluntary.

But assuming that you have, as result of the work of a lifetime, actually obtained clear title to your home, it would be kinda nuts to expose the result of that effort to the perils of fire or windstorm or a liability claim without insurance.


“I despise idealogues masquerading as objective journalists.” - Bill O'Reilly, March 30, 2007

"You know, It's Bill, he's an entertainer. He's not a reporter, he's not a journalist. He is a guy with an opinion and sometimes he

Mark October 10, 2007 - 9:25pm

and the likelihood the a**holes will actually pay on a claim.

I, for one, am very, very tired of insurance companies saying I shouldn't cross the white line to see what my mechanic is doing to my car, or forcing the property owner with lake access and a generous spirit to put up no trespassing signs. I got "audited" on last renewal. As my 90 lb dog was wagging his tail and prodding the guy with his nose, he said, "I'll just put down that you don't own a dog. That seems to be their latest peeve."

Gordon October 11, 2007 - 9:14am

taxing gas is that in general the worse the gas mileage, the more unsafe the car and the more damage it does to roads and bridges. The correlation on both is remarkably high.

Ian Welsh October 11, 2007 - 8:43am

It's not clear how accurate the Fair, Isaac score is even for credit purposes. The data history is rich enough for predictive work going back about 20 years, which means that the score uses a particularly vibrant time in the U.S. economy to predict future behavior. As long as we remain in such an economy, the score's predictive power is reasonable. Were the economy to go into some prolonged or deep slump, it is not certain that your credit score would be that accurate a determinant of your default probability.

One well-known but questionable feature of the Fair, Isaac assessment is the tendency to demote consumers who pay off their bills routinely. If you don't borrow, you don't pay the banks interest. This means the score is reflecting not pure default risk, but the risk/return profile of the consumer, a completely different thing.

Compounding this is the fact that big banks adjust the score with their own modeling requirements, as do the three big credit bureaus. So if you ask for your score, Experian will have a different number on file than Transamerica.

Fair, Isaac has already lost full control of their score to the big users, and now insurance companies, hospitals, and even prospective employers are using the score as if it had even more predictive propensities. Exactly who is doing the statistical analysis to establish these powers of prediction isn't clear, but it doesn't seem to be Fair, Isaac.

What surprises me is that Fair, Isaac doesn't object to these abuses of its product. Maybe they are happy to sell their score results to anybody who asks, but if so they are going to wind up like Moody's or Standard & Poors when the social costs of this abuse become clear.

Numerian October 9, 2007 - 12:00pm

counterintuitive:

This sort of stuff tends to rise to the level of statistical significance - people with high credit ratings, on average, are more likely to leave the job in 6 months, steal from their employers, and so on.

What am I missing?


“I despise idealogues masquerading as objective journalists.” - Bill O'Reilly, March 30, 2007

Mark October 9, 2007 - 4:08pm

should be less.

Ian Welsh October 10, 2007 - 1:32am

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