So, umm, yeah, the PR offensive is underway on what a wonderful success the surge has been. First the GAO was forced to make some changes to its report card (which still shows a failing grade overall); now we find out that it all depends what you count as sectarian violence, and, well, what you count period...
Reductions in violence form the centerpiece of the Bush administration's claim that its war strategy is working. In congressional testimony Monday, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, is expected to cite a 75 percent decrease in sectarian attacks. According to senior U.S. military officials in Baghdad, overall attacks in Iraq were down to 960 a week in August, compared with 1,700 a week in June, and civilian casualties had fallen 17 percent between December 2006 and last month. Unofficial Iraqi figures show a similar decrease...
...The intelligence community has its own problems with military calculations. Intelligence analysts computing aggregate levels of violence against civilians for the NIE puzzled over how the military designated attacks as combat, sectarian or criminal, according to one senior intelligence official in Washington. "If a bullet went through the back of the head, it's sectarian," the official said. "If it went through the front, it's criminal."...
And if we don't count sectarian violence, then it doesn't exist...
Among the most worrisome trends cited by the NIE was escalating warfare between rival Shiite militias in southern Iraq that has consumed the port city of Basra and resulted last month in the assassination of two southern provincial governors. According to a spokesman for the Baghdad headquarters of the Multi-National Force-Iraq (MNF-I), those attacks are not included in the military's statistics. "Given a lack of capability to accurately track Shiite-on-Shiite and Sunni-on-Sunni violence, except in certain instances," the spokesman said, "we do not track this data to any significant degree."
And if they're on our side (today) then it's not sectarian either.
Attacks by U.S.-allied Sunni tribesmen -- recruited to battle Iraqis allied with al-Qaeda -- are also excluded from the U.S. military's calculation of violence levels....
Of course, when other people count...
Recent estimates by the media, outside groups and some government agencies have called the military's findings into question. The Associated Press last week counted 1,809 civilian deaths in August, making it the highest monthly total this year, with 27,564 civilians killed overall since the AP began collecting data in April 2005.
The GAO report found that "average number of daily attacks against civilians have remained unchanged from February to July 2007," a conclusion that the military said was skewed because it did not include dramatic, up-to-date information from August.
... somehow the numbers don't look so good.
Not that any of this should be a surprise. When you get someone to rate themselves on how good a job they're doing, and their boss wants to present that to the board as indicative of his performance... well, strangely enough, they're doing great.
But facts don't matter much. What matters is which set of numbers and assessment's get repeated more. And odds are high, despite the media doing some pushback, that the White House will be able to push their numbers with greater repetitiveness. Congress will give Bush another 50 billion, and the war will continue.